February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The HRRR is a bit different than the UW WRF — a textbook double CZ with the southern one directly over the city of Seattle. 
 

Very high confidence that some folks are going to get nailed with the reliable mesoscale models all on board. Could cause a travel mess as well if a quick couple inches fall in the middle of these bands. 

I like it!! 

[MikeInEverett]

Officially my 3rd dusting of the winter here last night! Rooting hard for the WRF today. Good news is I’m moving to northeast Lake Stevens / Granite Falls this summer so next winter I won’t be tortured by my low elevation and proximity to the water!

[AlTahoe]

If you want to Blizzard chase I80 from Blue canyon up to Donner summit looks like the place to be Thursday- Saturday. From the Nws Sacramento:

For reference, latest probabilities of exceeding 60" of snowfall 
are in the 80 to 100% range above 5000 feet. This will result in 
near to impossible travel conditions from late week into the 
weekend. 

[MossMan]

Some roof accumulations from my frozen shower a few minutes ago. 

[TacomaWx]

Some pictures now that it’s daylight. Probably 3” of snow here at 900’ but it’s letting up at the moment. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

 

Slushy 2”. Dropped to 27 this morning.

[Phishy Wx]

Did it snow?

[Doinko]

Looks like it snowed a bit overnight, some slush on cars and dirt. The west Hills also have some snow at the top

[ShawniganLake]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Some roof accumulations from my frozen shower a few minutes ago. 

Knew you were gonna score big.  ️ 

[ShawniganLake]

Stayed dry overnight here. 28.8F this morning 

[RCola]

Congrats to those that scored last night! I'm rooting hard for Seattle tonight for the southern convergence zone to develop. An inch would be amazing! 

[GHweatherChris]

Moderate snow, Trace accumulation.

[ShawniganLake]

36 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Slushy 2”. Dropped to 27 this morning.

Did you go for a swim last night?  You left the gate open  

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Did you go for a swim last night?  You left the gate open  

he needs to plant some palms around the pool

[bainbridgekid]

4km WRF for tonight. Most of this falls between 6PM and Midnight.

 

[MossMan]

A lot of people are not happy on the FB community forums…Mainly because they want growing season to come. This meme was posted on one of them. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

4km WRF for tonight. Most of this falls between 6PM and Midnight.

 

D*mn I think snoqualmie is going to get nailed again. A lot of water to treat up here already with the big rain yesterday. I’ve got full ponds and now melting snow. Then more heavy wet melting snow tomorrow!

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

4km WRF for tonight. Most of this falls between 6PM and Midnight.

 

Not good, I could see myself getting skunked tonight. Hopefully some of the others are looking better for my place. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This week is a gift. 

[MossMan]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This week is a gift. 

From Phil? 

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not good, I could see myself getting skunked tonight. Hopefully some of the others are looking better for my place. 

Possible, but the Euro has been really consistent with a bullseye of heavy snow North of Everett near you.

 

[T-Town]

Low of 36 here up to 37 now. My walk this morning was brisk!  Felt awesome. Looks like we’ll just have to enjoy the cool sunshine here. Oh well.  

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

D*mn I think snoqualmie is going to get nailed again. A lot of water to treat up here already with the big rain yesterday. I’ve got full ponds and now melting snow. Then more heavy wet melting snow tomorrow!

And then the big rain on Wednesday. Probably 1-2”. You’re gonna be busy. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Possible, but the Euro has been really consistent with a bullseye of heavy snow North of Everett near you.

 

Cliff’s model is horrible. It has been comically wrong for just about every snow event IMBY the past winter or two.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Possible, but the Euro has been really consistent with a bullseye of heavy snow North of Everett near you.

 

I am keeping every extremity crossed for this outcome! 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

48 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like it snowed a bit overnight, some slush on cars and dirt. The west Hills also have some snow at the top

Yeah we had a slushy trace on non road surfaces this morning. Partly/mostly cloudy and 38 now 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

And then the big rain on Wednesday. Probably 1-2”. You’re gonna be busy. 

Oh yeah definitely going to be getting lots of overtime. It’s kind of fun when the weather gets active because it means I’m pretty busy! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Moderate snow, Trace accumulation.

Just remember it won't snow below 1000ft

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This week is a gift. 

Could be a slushy inch up your way at some point?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Tomorrow afternoon and evening is my chance.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Was surprised to see slushy snow on non-road surfaces down in parts of Issaquah Valley but none in the Issaquah Highlands shopping area or Sammamish plateau. From talking to others it sounds like there were brief snow showers there last night that turned to rain. Would not have predicted parts of the valley to get more though. Must have been proximity to their little mountains to bring snow all the way down rather than just elevation. So very interesting!

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

[LowerGarfield]

No snow here unless you count a flake or two on top of my garbage can. I wasn't expecting any despite what models showed. Too warm so I'm not disapointed. But I did see 2-3 cars with a decent amount snow at the school drop off, which means our local mountains and farmers outside of town got snow. Can't see them since the foothills block the view although there's a tiny patch on our nearby hill that looks like it got a dusting.

[the_convergence_zone]

29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cliff’s model is horrible. It has been comically wrong for just about every snow event IMBY the past winter or two.

It's both wrong and useful, just like all models. 

Personally I love the mesoscale models for marginal snow events and especially a convective one like toady. Of course they never get the band/shower placement perfectly correct but they are way closer with the snow level than the global models and don't falsely paint accumulating snow all over the lowlands when the snow level is 500 ft. 

The main problem is you're looking at individual runs and not an ensemble, so you have no idea about uncertainty and each run bounces around just like the global models do. BUT soon that will change when we have the RRFS ensemble in a few years. Plus the RRFS has a bigger domain so we won't be stuck near the boundary anymore. I know the UW-WRF has an ensemble that is run at 12Z but other than the plumes there are not useful ways to visualize it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Some pictures now that it’s daylight. Probably 3” of snow here at 900’ but it’s letting up at the moment. 

Very cool. What sort of place am I looking at in these pics? Is it a construction site, or some sort of water treatment facility?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

43 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

4km WRF for tonight. Most of this falls between 6PM and Midnight.

 

Im going to be right on the edge of 4" or nothing. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

35 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Possible, but the Euro has been really consistent with a bullseye of heavy snow North of Everett near you.

 

Euro totally whiffed on the banding setup last night. HRRR was the only model that correctly mapped it. Even nailed the time 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thursday night is looking good for light snow across a larger area into friday morning. Again friday night. Timing is perfect.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

50 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

he needs to plant some palms around the pool

Lmao. We have thought about it. Deer eat everything we plant, and they won't touch a palm. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lmao. We have thought about it. Deer eat everything we plant, and they won't touch a palm. 

I will pay you not to kill that beautiful view with a palm!!