February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

When i see 16 at forks it is the nail in the coffin. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is chilly

No doubt. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

why is the euro getting silly now with these snow maps?

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We are in a weird regime right now.  The winters have actually shown a slight cooling from the turn of the century to now while the summers have skyrocketed.  I think July could be more comfortable this year, but August will be probably be more of the same we've been seeing.

Anecdotal, but it feels like the Winter jet stream has been weaker and the Four Corners High in the Summer has been stronger the last decade or so.

That would make some sense with a warmer Arctic weakening the Jet Stream and more warmth building in the lower latitudes in the Summer.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

why is the euro getting silly now with these snow maps?

Euro snow maps have been comically wrong recently. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It affects me, too, via terrain bleed from the North Shore Mountains.

It’s compounded by a lot of the modelled snowfalls in the coming days being marginal, temperature-wise.

Trying to decide if I should plan more moving trips this week, and it’s not easy. I do not enjoy driving in the snow in a climate where so few other drivers have much practice in it.

The maps are so unreliable for me as well. On top of the poorly modeled shadow effect, Deer Park campground is 9 miles behind my house and 5000' in elevation higher. Only the really high res models can pick out that terrain change. 

[snow_wizard]

This run is solidly below normal for sure.  Colder 850s than the 0z much of the time.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Anecdotal, but it feels like the Winter jet stream has been weaker and the Four Corners High in the Summer has been stronger the last decade or so.

That would make some sense with a warmer Arctic weakening the Jet Stream and more warmth building in the lower latitudes in the Summer.

Totally agree on the 4CH, and the Arctic situation you mention makes sense too.  Maybe our trend toward more distinct seasons will be long lasting.

More cold ENSO years it seems as well.  That hasn't meant cool summers like it used to.  That 4CH has been a beast.  Even at that a cool summer almost has to happen at some point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is getting pretty real for March.

36F for a min temp can happen pretty regularly here in March.

[the_convergence_zone]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We are in a weird regime right now.  The winters have actually shown a slight cooling from the turn of the century to now while the summers have skyrocketed.  I think July could be more comfortable this year, but August will be probably be more of the same we've been seeing.

I just ran these numbers recently...comparing last 10 years to the previous 40 years...yes, basically no change in winter temperatures, maybe 0.1 or 0.2 C warming at most vs. ~1970-2010 depending on what baseline period you use. Spring is about 1.0 C warmer in the last 10 years, fall 1.5 C warmer, and summer is around 1.8 or 1.9 C warmer. 

That's based off of 850 hPa temperatures at KUIL, so that does not include local or urban effects. 

So over the full year it averages out similar to the ~1 C of warming that the planet has experienced over that period...but the seasonal differences in this region are nuts. I haven't crunched the numbers yet for OTX or SLE but have been meaning to. 

I do think the winter temps have been held in check by -ENSO this century. If we have a run of neutral or +ENSO winters then the warming will show up in the stats. 

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't believe ENSO is causing this... it seems something else is overriding ENSO and we get cold weather at this time of year regardless of ENSO.    I am sensing this also means another toasty warm season because there has been no regime change.

#Tonga'd

 

There's a crap load of water vapor in the stratosphere still, that can cause warming. that can possibly take 5 years + to resolve.  i'd imagine seasonality is going to be wonky for awhile

[Weiner Warrior]

I only trust pepto snow maps and pay no attention to any other details. 

[Timmy]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

That’s wild for down here

[Weiner Warrior]

Soon we'll all be underwater due to global warming.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Soon we'll all be underwater due to global warming.

Well the oceans will need to rise another 550’ to get to my house! Things better get going! 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

#Tonga'd

 

There's a crap load of water vapor in the stratosphere still, that can cause warming. that can possibly take 5 years + to resolve.  i'd imagine seasonality is going to be wonky for awhile

But this new regime of more seasonal extremes started happening before Tonga.  

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But this new regime of more seasonal extremes started happening before Tonga.  

indeed, but could also be exaggerated or exacerbated  by it

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is chilly

Indeed. Daily mean temps of freezing in March? Unusual.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well the oceans will need to rise another 550’ to get to my house! Things better get going! 

Won’t happen even if all glaciers melt.

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

18 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Soon we'll all be underwater due to global warming.

Sea level needs to rise over 4200 feet for me to be underwater. I wonder what the world map would look like if that happened...

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Won’t happen even if all glaciers melt.

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted

Yeah I would still be high and dry! However instead of taking about 15 minutes to get down to the sound, it would only take me about 5 minutes!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I would still be high and dry! However instead of taking about 15 minutes to get down to the sound, it would only take me about 5 minutes!! 

I would be on the beach!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's up with all the wolverine sightings in Oregon the past couple of years. The one spotted today was south of Canby in the heart of the Willamette Valley. 

Wolverines and animals in general know when storms or extreme weather is coming. The wolverine is mainly found in remote areas of the Northern boreal forests and subarctic/alpine tundras of the Northern Hemisphere. The fact that wolverines are now heading west of the Cascades means they know cold and snowy weather is on the way. IT’S COMING!

‘BARLOW Ore. (KPTV) - The Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife confirmed there was a rare sighting of a wolverine on the west side of the Cascades on Monday.

Brandon Oswald sent FOX 12 a video of a wolverine running through a field in Barlow. He says at first he wasn’t sure what it was.

Wolverines are widely found in Canada and Alaska. There’s also a small population in eastern Oregon. Last year was the first time a wolverine had been spotted outside the Wallowa mountains in over 30 years.’

https://www.kptv.com/2024/02/26/rare-wolverine-sighting-barlow/

[snow_wizard]

Cold!

[SnowWillarrive]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well the oceans will need to rise another 550’ to get to my house! Things better get going! 

Most of the Puget sound area would look visually better underwater. Especially the valleys.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

36F for a min temp can happen pretty regularly here in March.

Obviously I was referring to WA.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Most of the Puget sound area would look visually better underwater. Especially the valleys.

Yesterday I was thinking how amazing it must have looked when the valleys and Puget Sound were full of glaciers.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

There was another wolverine spotted out here near Gresham in Barlow yesterday. Wolverines and animals in general know when storms or extreme weather is coming. The wolverine is mainly found in remote areas of the Northern boreal forests and subarctic/alpine tundras of the Northern Hemisphere. The fact that wolverines are now heading west of the Cascades means they know cold and snowy weather is on the way. IT’S COMING!

‘BARLOW Ore. (KPTV) - The Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife confirmed there was a rare sighting of a wolverine on the west side of the Cascades on Monday.

Brandon Oswald sent FOX 12 a video of a wolverine running through a field in Barlow. He says at first he wasn’t sure what it was.

Wolverines are widely found in Canada and Alaska. There’s also a small population in eastern Oregon. Last year was the first time a wolverine had been spotted outside the Wallowa mountains in over 30 years.’

https://www.kptv.com/2024/02/26/rare-wolverine-sighting-barlow/

2 years ago i snapped some pics of 3 little furry animals i was not sure what they were. sent pics to the game department and they were wolverine cubs and that was the first sighting ever in that area. They are on my property. The game department said it was extremely rare to see them.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If the low of 28 at SEA this morning is real that is two weeks later than the normal last 28 of the season which is Feb 13.  Late Feb magic continues.

OLM only managed 32 with this air mass and a low of 29 for the month. Starting to think they really are broken.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF hints at some of the coldest March temps on record for SEA on this run.  Anything below 26 or so is very rare for them now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM only managed 32 with this air mass and a low of 29 for the month. Starting to think they really are broken.

I was thinking that too, but there were a couple days fairly recently that they appeared to be right on what they should have been.  Last night I think it stayed breezy there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM only managed 32 with this air mass and a low of 29 for the month. Starting to think they really are broken.

bremerton hit 24

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wolverines, like wolves, were once more widespread than they now are, before being extirpated from large parts of their ranges by predator extermination campaigns. Nice to see them repopulating their old range.

[snow_wizard]

Safe to say this is the final strat warming.

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

There was another wolverine spotted out here near Gresham in Barlow yesterday. Wolverines and animals in general know when storms or extreme weather is coming. The wolverine is mainly found in remote areas of the Northern boreal forests and subarctic/alpine tundras of the Northern Hemisphere. The fact that wolverines are now heading west of the Cascades means they know cold and snowy weather is on the way. IT’S COMING!

‘BARLOW Ore. (KPTV) - The Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife confirmed there was a rare sighting of a wolverine on the west side of the Cascades on Monday.

Brandon Oswald sent FOX 12 a video of a wolverine running through a field in Barlow. He says at first he wasn’t sure what it was.

Wolverines are widely found in Canada and Alaska. There’s also a small population in eastern Oregon. Last year was the first time a wolverine had been spotted outside the Wallowa mountains in over 30 years.’

https://www.kptv.com/2024/02/26/rare-wolverine-sighting-barlow/

Which model do they prefer?

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Safe to say this is the final strat warming.

YAY, cold, wet spring

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wolverines, like wolves, were once more widespread than they now are, before being extirpated from large parts of their ranges by predator extermination campaigns. Nice to see them repopulating their old range.

One very sad note to this, however, is they reintroduced wolves to the Selkirk Mountains in WA, and they wiped out the last remaining caribou herd in the lower 48.  That was a royal F up.

[TacomaWx]

Yesterday was pretty crazy up here in snoqualmie. Right when I was leaving work about 5pm a band of heavy snow moved in. Dumped about an inch of snow in an hour. Shut down highway 18. I got stuck for 1 1/2 hours trying to get over tiger mountain and took 2 1/2 hours to get home. Was not a happy camper! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

YAY, cold, wet spring

I'm hoping for more cold and less wet.

[TacomaWx]

Was Nice and snowy this morning here. Looked like there was about 2” of fresh snow last night after about 3” the day before. 38 and melty here currently.