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February 2024 Weather in the PNW


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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Recency bias?    1972-73 and 1997-98 had arctic cold too and I think with more snow in the Seattle area.  What about the craziness in February 2019?  Do we just need some frosty nights this February to make this the strangest?  

I'm talking about Feb in a strong Nino.  Try to find one with a major cold event.

I was also talking about what happened in January.  That temperature swing was one of the wildest ever recorded in the month of January.  1935 is the only one I know of.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The mid-January blast was a couple orders of magnitude colder than anything we saw in February 2019 as well. Especially down here.

I'm still amazed at the low level cold. Blowing snow at 14 degrees was definitely not something I was expecting going into this winter. The numbers PDX put up were great: 41/21, 21/15, 23/17, 30/22, 27/20, 34/25.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm talking about Feb in a strong Nino.  Try to find one with a major cold event.

I was also talking about what happened in January.  That temperature swing was one of the wildest ever recorded in the month of January.  1935 is the only one I know of.

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EPS is on board for act 1.

1707890400-18AEeqpGuZY.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

Ohhhhh!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see what actually happens.    

But if history is any guide... me downplaying things based on face value of model runs is usually a good way to guarantee something big happens!

Same thing goes with Phil it seems. You were both on team, “it will torch for sure” a week ago. I believed it too.

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I hope the EPS control looks like the OP at day 10.  It would be fun to see where it goes from there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 45/39 day here. Chilliest day of the month so far. Heavy morning drizzle then mostly cloudy and cool in the afternoon.

Partly cloudy and 39 now, so could drop another degree or two before midnight.

Finally getting a frosty night here.  47/33 for the day so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Same thing goes with Phil it seems. You were both on team, “it will torch for sure” a week ago. I believed it too.

AL pattern is almost a guarantee... but appears to be quite a strange wrinkle this time.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could the February magic dust make an appearance again?

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how hard this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his ass. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

@TT-SEA was pressing Jim earlier over why this is being described as unprecedented despite the recent Niño success. I think it's because this is coming out of nowhere with no real fundamentals supporting it. It literally feels like something magical is taking over the midrange. February magic! Not to mention the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16, which aren't even a decade old and are still pretty fresh in our minds as two consecutive Niño duds (2014-15 might have been a neutral year, but I'm counting it regardless since it was an extreme high end warm neutral, missing the mark by a month or two, and it strongly behaved like an El Niño over North America.) Undoubtedly this month has some subseasonal favoring in our current climate regime. On the flipside, that might mean an indication that our Summer will torch like recent years. Go figure.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how had this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his a**. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

I agree. I do remember him calling last December's blocking over a month in advance, and I feel like everything he has been saying has generally made sense (even if I don't understand all the acronyms).

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image.png

WTAF

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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19 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What’s AL

It’s something you can call Paul Simon and I guess it’s also any 500mb/upper level pattern that at some point features an area of low pressure within 800 miles of the Aleutian island of your choice.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I agree. I do remember him calling last December's blocking over a month in advance, and I feel like everything he has been saying has generally made sense (even if I don't understand all the acronyms).

He gets a lot of big picture stuff right, but this winter has also been a reminder that in the face of an inherently chaotic natural system Phil, too, is phallible (we all are).

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Especially in a strong Nino February.  If this verifies it will take the cake for the most bizarre Nino winter I've ever seen.

It's still a long ways out but it will be quite remarkable if the PNW can win another cold blast with the upcoming SSW.

It used to be that SSW's mostly dropped the cold back east but it seems like in recent years that it's almost a given that the PNW gets at least some of the cold. Just wow.

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It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

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40 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

Ironically that polar lobe is of a deeper cold source than the lobe which glanced us in January. Remember when I was saying it wouldn't get that cold again this winter, without a doubt?

GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble spread tonight might be insane.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wish people would lay off @Phil in this instance, even though it is super funny how hard this is backfiring for him (and super fortunate for us!) Given the -ENSO and roided incoming STJ extension, he wasn't talking out of his a**. I believed him... Hell, I had those exact thoughts about the end of the month before he even posted his own.

@TT-SEA was pressing Jim earlier over why this is being described as unprecedented despite the recent Niño success. I think it's because this is coming out of nowhere with no real fundamentals supporting it. It literally feels like something magical is taking over the midrange. February magic! Not to mention the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16, which aren't even a decade old and are still pretty fresh in our minds as two consecutive Niño duds (2014-15 might have been a neutral year, but I'm counting it regardless since it was an extreme high end warm neutral, missing the mark by a month or two, and it strongly behaved like an El Niño over North America.) Undoubtedly this month has some subseasonal favoring in our current climate regime. On the flipside, that might mean an indication that our Summer will torch like recent years. Go figure.

Two rules of thumb in recent years:

  1. It is unwise to bet against snow in February.
  2. It is unwise to bet against a torchy summer.
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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It looks like we just may score again in February. Dramatic shifts on the ECMWF, GEM, and EPS tonight. Day 3.5 to 6.5 major improvement. Day 7+ love that PV retrograding through the Canadian prairies edging towards northeast Washington. Big things coming. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

You know it’s getting interesting when gradient keeper enters the chat.

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Honestly I see nothing interesting in the models right now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly I see nothing interesting in the models right now. 

The first trough gets sends most of the cold from the east so it is going to limit the chill unfortunately. Fraser river valley actually does get some decent wind on gem. 

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I respect your opinion.  Obviously the euro is struggling!

Might have something transitory up your way. Only last night's GEM got it cool down here. Been a pretty blah month so far, a bit above average and somewhat drier than average despite constant clouds and drizzle. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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