March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not much precip with the system on Wednesday... main band moves through before dawn and then its mostly dry and partly sunny during the day.  

Good! Just washed the vehicles! 

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thing is, even if that regime has terminated it may not be evident until next summer, given the LF/seasonal base state is transitioning as we speak, and will continue to do so through autumn.

Dynamics associated w/ niño —> niña flips (esp under descending +QBO at solar max) tend to produce a pattern that mercilessly roasts the lower-48 during the warm season. Maybe not centered in the West/PNW this time, but a warm outcome is heavily favored just about everywhere IMO. I’m very pessimistic about the summer pattern this year.

If I had to make a prediction based on hunch, I’d say summer 2025 (assuming attenuation of ENSO to neutral) is most likely to be cool in the PNW, especially the first half (lingering W-QBO @ 50mb, in-situ -PMM, and lift/upper level divergence initially focused over warm E-IO/IPWP). But there are many assumptions built into this, so it ain’t a forecast. Just an idea to play around with.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now you are just trolling. Don’t you have some ritual sacrifices to make at Bohemian Grove or something? 

Almost all of your political crap is just for shock value.    Like your weather takes.   You just like to entertain yourself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and 44

[Anti Marine Layer]

The biggest March miracle of all miracles is not miraculous enough to raise the California thread from the dead.

Meanwhile Jesse suffers through a sunny Easter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

The biggest March miracle of all miracles is not miraculous enough to raise the California thread from the dead.

Meanwhile Jesse suffers through a sunny Easter. 

I believe the Lord is working on his heart and someday he will break free from

bondage. 

[Phil]

I’m legit considering road tripping to interior New England to catch that blizzard 4/3-4/4. The 12z Euro is litty-titty…30” of paste in 24hrs. Then drive down to OH or W-NY for the eclipse.

I’m 90% sure my better half will immediately shoot down the idea, though.  

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like it’s our turn not to roast with HISTORIC heat. Good luck and rest in peace. The panic is real. 

Mother nature will read her verdict soon enough.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m legit considering road tripping to interior New England to catch that blizzard 4/3-4/4. The 12z Euro is litty-titty…30” of paste in 24hrs. Then drive down to OH or W-NY for the eclipse.

I’m 90% sure my better half will immediately shoot down the idea, though.  

YOLO.   Do it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mother nature will read her verdict soon enough.

No Nina’s for 7 years?!

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No Nina’s for 7 years?!

Nina summers have been ridiculously hot lately.   3 in a row.  Nino is probably best bet for a reasonable summer.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sunny and 44

So my wife has decided we are having Easter dinner on the deck.    We have an advantageous set up in that it faces south and the house blocks the breeze.   And God has blessed us with live-giving sunshine today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So my wife has decided we are having Easter dinner on the deck.    We have an advantageous set up in that it faces south and the house blocks the breeze.   And God has blessed us with live-giving sunshine today. 

Praise the risen Lord!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Happy Easter!

[Deweydog]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m legit considering road tripping to interior New England to catch that blizzard 4/3-4/4. The 12z Euro is litty-titty…30” of paste in 24hrs. Then drive down to OH or W-NY for the eclipse.

I’m 90% sure my better half will immediately shoot down the idea, though.  

Break up. Now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Break up. Now.

Seriously. If a partner wants to run your life like that they can F off. 

[Phil]

Crucial period coming up in May w/rt speed of +QBO transition.

Downwell of westerly shear typically occurs following the third westerly SAO (stands for “semi-annual oscillation”, occurs above QBO at a higher-frequency interval, with a terminus around the stratopause).

That is statistically favored to begin sometime in late April, at which point the descent of westerly shear will begin in the tropical upper stratosphere. Clues as to rate/amplitude of niña transition and the summer pattern will become much clearer roughly 6 weeks thereafter (from late May to late June depending on precise start time).

[High Desert Mat?]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Crucial period coming up in May w/rt speed of +QBO transition.

Downwell of westerly shear typically occurs following the third westerly SAO (stands for “semi-annual oscillation”, occurs above QBO at a higher-frequency interval, with a terminus around the stratopause).

That is statistically favored to begin sometime in late April, at which point the descent of westerly shear will begin in the tropical upper stratosphere. Clues as to rate/amplitude of niña transition and the summer pattern will become much clearer roughly 6 weeks thereafter (from late May to late June depending on precise start time).

Uhhhhh, what you said. Happy Easter in layman terms would help. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No Nina’s for 7 years?!

Very possible. The next intradecadal E-ward extension of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is due any year now. Once that happens, the post-2016 niña-tendency will dissolve.

Doesn’t mean the rest of the 2020s will be dominated by nonstop niños, but ENSO amplitude will decrease overall, with more frequent garden-variety niños, while -ENSO episodes become weaker, more EPAC-centered, and less frequent overall.

Some previous examples are 01/02 - 05/06, 91/92 - 94/95, etc.

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Uhhhhh, what you said. Happy Easter in layman terms would help. 

What didn’t I elaborate on? I defined the SAO (think of it has a faster version of the QBO occurring higher up).

Timing of +QBO transition matters because it affects tropical convection to some degree. Faster transition will boost off-equator convection and intensify the Walker Cell relative to the Hadley Cell, aiding the development of La Niña over the summer. Vice versa for a slower transition.

Years like 2010 (with subtropics/PMM and ENSO in alignment) saw shear stress downwell very quickly. Where-as on the other end of the spectrum you have 1992.

Of course there are multiple factors involved (inertia of thermocline/intensity of upwelling kelvin wave activity, in-situ state of the PMM, warm-water volume within the indo-pacific warm pool (and its overall structure), etc).

But the QBO plays one of the more outsized role regarding how “well integrated” transitioning ENSO is with modes of extratropical circulation, which is very important for sensible weather in the PNW and other middle latitude regions.

For instance, you can have a sharp transition from niño to niña, but the extratropics are somewhat dissociated and take longer to synchronize. A primary example of this is 1998. Where as 1973 and 2010 are very well integrated transitions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Very possible. The next intradecadal E-ward extension of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is due any year now. Once that happens, the post-2016 niña-tendency will dissolve.

Doesn’t mean the rest of the 2020s will be dominated by nonstop niños, but ENSO amplitude will decrease overall, with more frequent garden-variety niños, while -ENSO episodes become weaker, more EPAC-centered, and less frequent overall.

Some previous examples are 01/02 - 05/06, 91/92 - 94/95, etc.

What about the upcoming Nina? 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Loving the sunshine. 56 with bluebird sky

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What about the upcoming Nina? 

If the transition to +QBO is rapid like 2010, and the IO remains warm, then of course a strong(er) event is statistically favored. That would be a relatively clear-cut forecast as the entire analog pool would consist of moderate/strong niñas. But probably a single-year event (IMO).

If it’s a slower, poorly integrated transition, I’d expect a garden-variety niña that peaks early, before attenuating to neutral during F/M/A, with the middle latitude pattern becoming less “niña like” as winter rolls on.

But of course, statistically favored outcomes don’t always come to fruition. We’ll find out eventually.

[Phil]

7 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

14.9 currently with the sun rising which is probably the low of the day, 49/23 day yesterday.

Damn, you must have a short growing season.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He is Risen! What a beautiful day outside! I want to wish everyone a Happy Easter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

D**n, you must have a short growing season.

It’s more of a yuppie, 1% type place. They have the plebs grow their food other places. 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Break up. Now.

lol I missed this. It’s not like that, I already got her to take off work 4/7 - 4/9 to travel to OH with me. If we hit New England first we’ll have to pay for a hotel, and driving a Camaro into a blizzard comes with..risks (tho I’ve done it before, heh).

I could go myself, but I don’t want to drive home then make another trip over the Appalachians and back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

lol I missed this. It’s not like that, I already got her to take off work 4/7 - 4/9 to travel to OH with me. If we hit New England first we’ll have to pay for a hotel, and driving a Camaro into a blizzard comes with..risks (tho I’ve done it before, heh).

I could go myself, but I don’t want to drive home then make another trip over the Appalachians and back.

Honey trap

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 and sunny. Incredible 

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honey trap

Lmao. Keep in mind this is occurring with the backdrop of my comical ordeal after chasing in Plymouth. It’s another Phil story I’m sure half of you won’t believe, but it’s the perfect microcosm to summarize my life to-date.

Trimmed from my previous post, but I went up there solo for the Jan 2022 blizzard, and let me tell you…driving a small sedan off the cape after 2+ feet of snow, frozen storm surge over wash, and power lines down everywhere was NOT easy. Praise Jesus that New England clears roads better than DC, or I would’ve been screwed.

Had initially planned to spend another night at the pilgrim sands assuming I’d be snowed in (I wasn’t), but power was out and many of the ocean facing windows were broken, so it was cold as hoth in there. Everyone noped out of there by sundown.

Even then I would’ve been fine, but my sister insisted I layover at her apartment in NYC, and after doing so I ended up running over a piece of plywood half buried in the snow w/ nails jutting out. Because, of course.  

My 10yr old donut held out just long enough to get me to an Acura dealer. Went flat right as I got there. Ultimately ended up spending as much $$ as I would have on renting an SUV, bc my insurance policy was El Cheapo.

So yeah, her criticism isn’t without merit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lmao. Keep in mind this is occurring with the backdrop of my comical ordeal after chasing in Plymouth. It’s another Phil story I’m sure half of y’all won’t believe, but it’s the perfect microcosm to summarize my life to-date.

Trimmed from my previous post, but I went up there solo for the Jan 2022 blizzard, and let me tell you…driving a small sedan off the cape after 2+ feet of snow, frozen storm surge over wash, and power lines down everywhere was NOT easy. Praise Jesus that New England clears roads better than DC, or I would’ve been screwed.

Had initially planned to spend another night at the pilgrim sands assuming I’d be snowed in (I wasn’t), but power was out and many ocean facing windows were smashed, so it was cold as hoth in there. Everyone noped out of there by sundown.

Even then I would’ve been fine, but my sister insisted I layover at her apartment in NYC, and after doing so I ended up running over a piece of plywood half buried in the snow w/ nails jutting out. Because, of course.  

My 10yr old donut held out just long enough to get me to an Acura dealer. Went flat right as I got there. Ultimately ended up spending as much $$ as I would have on renting an SUV, bc my insurance policy was El Cheapo.

Lessons learned, the hard way. Her criticism isn’t without merit.

Yeah but you do you. Unless you are financially reliant on her, which if true you gotta change. What I’ve come to know about women in my 40 years is they all ******* and hoes. You do you and remember no a** is worth that. 

[TT-SEA]

61 and sunny in North Bend.  

Just finished Easter dinner on the deck.   My wife almost brought out the umbrella for shade.   Quite warm when you are protected from the breeze.   Short sleeve shirts and sunglasses for all.  Even my elderly mother was warm and she is always cold.  

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

He is Risen! What a beautiful day outside! I want to wish everyone a Happy Easter!

[Phishy Wx]

56 and Mostly Sunny

[Phil]

18z GFS looks Jesse-tastic.

[Deweydog]

I think someone’s had a little too much blood of Christ.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A brief respite in a continuous sea of torching. 

I've seen worse first 3 months of the year. Though granted, lately February has tilted this period cooler.

[Front Ranger]

I see the Euro has still not hopped on Tim's "next warm up right around the corner". Or the GFS.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

If you want to worship Satan than we should send you to hell to be with him. 

 “Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves."

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

D**n, you must have a short growing season.

Yeah, our growing season for frost sensitive plants is from mid June-the start of September. Some years we'll get quite a lot of subfreezing lows even in July, which messes up our frost sensitive plants. But atleast the greenhouses are pretty good here for most of the year because our town lives up to the name "SUNriver"

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s more of a yuppie, 1% type place. They have the plebs grow their food other places. 

 

 

 

 

Fun fact, despite popular belief, you can live in Sunriver and be middle class. I waited a few years for the opportunity to buy a cheap(relatively) lot here, and with my years of construction experience I was able to build most of this house with a little bit of help, and hired someone to do the plumbing, and hired someone to do the elec. Ended up being much cheaper than buying a house here. 

 

And don't act like you live in a cheap area, because you don't.