TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 18Z GFS is always such a tease. I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board. And it actually was on board yesterday. But definitely not now. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 70° now here Eastside Tacoma 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 10 minutes ago, YahRaEl said: Looks like El Nino is gone around Nino Region 3.4. Monday reading was +0.6C probably +0.4C now. I expect La Nina definitely to be in place by time we start August!!!. So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just to add to the model riding fun... the 18Z GFS is coming in even more amplified than the 12Z run by the middle of next week. I am also on Team 18Z GFS! Likely stuck on the losing side this time around. GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows. That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS is always such a tease. I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board. And it actually was on board yesterday. But definitely not now. Almost looks like it's trying to bring in an east wind event at the end there, September 2020 style! Better in Spring than in Fall I suppose. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Just now, Phil said: GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows. That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months. I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Almost looks like it's trying to bring in an east wind event at the end there, September 2020 style! Better in Spring than in Fall I suppose. Way better in the spring. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Just now, Meatyorologist said: I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA. But ECMWF showed exactly the same thing yesterday. So it's not just the GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS is always such a tease. I want to believe but I know better without the ECMWF suite on board. And it actually was on board yesterday. But definitely not now. It probably flips next round. That is a serious ridge. 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 77 in North Bend now. Should reach mid 80s tomorrow and maybe upper 80s on Saturday. Sunday should still be beautiful out here too... guessing mid to upper 70s and sunny until late evening. Perfect for Mother's Day dinner with the family on the patio. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Lake Sammamish is going to be packed on Saturday. Hope we get parking at the boat launch. Lots of pent up demand for a day in the mid to upper 80s. @bainbridgekid can you imagine the craziness if they had moved the opening day of boating to this Saturday? 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lake Sammamish is going to be packed on Saturday. Hope we get parking at the boat launch. Lots of pent up demand for a day in the mid to upper 80s. Better get there at daybreak and make a full day out of it! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA. My hunch is you’re right. Basically the GFS/GEFS digs a northern shortwave into the STJ beneath the GOA ridge and deepens/amplifies the whole system into +TNH/+PNA. Which is theoretically possible, however it’s also a notorious GFS springtime bias since the last upgrade. Can’t trust it without support from other guidance. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: It probably flips next round. That is a serious ridge. Very likely the 00Z run is the complete opposite. All it has to do is handle the upstream situation slightly different around day 5 and the trough crashes down on the PNW and the entire run is different. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Better get there at daybreak and make a full day out of it! We have found the better option is go out after 2 p.m. when the early birds are tired and heading out. Spots open up around that time even on the hottest days. And then you get the warmest part of the day on the water in the mid to late afternoon. 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanis Leach Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Flight out of NOLA delayed and we will likely miss our connecting flight in SLC. I guess we can hitchhike to Portland? At least the speed limit in Idaho and Utah is 80. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 77 in North Bend now. Should reach mid 80s tomorrow and maybe upper 80s on Saturday. Sunday should still be beautiful out here too... guessing mid to upper 70s and sunny until late evening. Perfect for Mother's Day dinner with the family on the patio. You keep your house 80°F too? Yuck. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 3 minutes ago, Phil said: You keep your house 80°F too? Yuck. What? That would cost a fortune in the winter. But our house is at 75 now with everything opened up. We have large south facing windows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Quote Space Weather Message Code: WATA99 Serial Number: 6 Issue Time: 2024 May 09 1722 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: May 10: G1 (Minor) May 11: G4 (Severe) May 12: G2 (Moderate) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California. Source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings And note that the 11th UTC runs from 5:00 pm Friday to 5:00 pm Satuday local time, so as @Port Angeles Foothiller said, this is Friday night and Saturday morning. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months. But we roasted in the warm season all the way through the last multi-year Nina. Expect the unexpected. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 It's probably just following the operational run... but the 18Z GEFS is quite a bit more ridgy than its 12Z run later next week and the 12Z run was not really chilly either. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 I’ve never flown out of Seattle in clear conditions was awesome. Great views of rainier and Adams. Having a blast here in Vegas. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Found a solution to the hot deck problem. Ingenious invention! It’s nearly time. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Glorious day! Thank you, Jengus! 1998 analog is BACK! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Glorious day! Thank you, Jengus! 1998 analog is BACK! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Great to see the 18z put an all time record warm May back on the table 1 3 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Well let’s hope this plane takes off from NOLA soon. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Salem sensor is out. What the heck. Salem sensor back up! An 80 for them today. PDX and Troutdale leading the way in Metro up to 83. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: But ECMWF showed exactly the same thing yesterday. So it's not just the GFS. Thats how far behind the GFS is in terms of skill...a day-old Euro run is just as good as the most recent GFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 10 Author Report Share Posted May 10 11 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Thats how far behind the GFS is in terms of skill...a day-old Euro run is just as good as the most recent GFS. You mean the same ECMWF that showed a -1 PNA a week out last night and a -5 PNA for the same time on the 12z? The ECMWF has been terrible at times this season. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: What? That would cost a fortune in the winter. But our house is at 75 now with everything opened up. We have large south facing windows. How do you sleep with it that warm? I need mid/upper 60s or colder to sleep deeply. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: It's probably just following the operational run... but the 18Z GEFS is quite a bit more ridgy than its 12Z run later next week and the 12Z run was not really chilly either. The GEFS is often under-dispersed. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 18z Euro/EPS didn’t budge either. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 18z EPS mean vs 18z operational GFS D5 - D6. I can’t imagine the EPS being so drastically wrong at this range. The GFS is probably in error. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 17 minutes ago, Phil said: How do you sleep with it that warm? I need mid/upper 60s or colder to sleep deeply. What are you talking about? Should we turn on the AC now? It was 77 degrees today with a dewpoint in the 40s and it will likely get into the 40s tonight. We keep it at 70 all winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 71.5° here at Eastside Tacoma for that a little cooler than forecasted 74°. Shall see what happens tomorrow. Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 Pretty excited for @SilverFallsAndrew as this warm spell could start his trees budding. Per his report... he was 12 weeks out from any sign life in early March so by early June there might be some tiny signs of life up there on his lofty perch. At least the grass might come out of dormancy soon. Interestingly... the trees are already leafed out today on May 9th at Snoqualmie Pass which is significantly higher than his location and farther north. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty excited for @SilverFallsAndrew as this warm spell could start his trees budding. Per his report... he was 12 weeks out from any sign life in early March so by early June there might be some tiny signs of life up there on his lofty perch. At least the grass might come out of dormancy soon. Interestingly... the trees are already leafed out today on May 9th at Snoqualmie Pass which is significantly higher than his location and farther north. This guy is freaking out today lol. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: This guy is freaking out today lol. Just today? 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 10 Report Share Posted May 10 Just now, FroYoBro said: This guy is freaking out today lol. I just enjoy needling Andrew... our master troll. All light-hearted. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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