Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Day 10 Kind of what I thought given the orientation of the ridge over western AK. Ridge over us. It'll change in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Updated GEM...still showing snow Clark county special!!! And then I realize it's the GEM 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Holyfuck, that's a lot of mountain snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 That Euro run looked like crap. Expect Tim to jump all over that. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 00z GFS Ensembles 16 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly Portland (850s / Precip) Seattle (850s / Precip) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Kind of what I thought given the orientation of the ridge over western AK. Ridge over us. It'll change in the coming days. EPS has a different solution. This is also hour 240 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: That Euro run looked like crap. Expect Tim to jump all over that. You're joking, right? 188kt jet. 966mb low into Vancouver Island. Big Rains, Mountain snows. 80-100mph winds along the Coast. Day 8+ was the only downside with the ridge popping up over us. EPS could be quite different. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Less than previous runs. Still, gobs of snow for this early in the season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: EPS has a different solution. This is also hour 240 Thanks. Exactly what I was hoping to see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: You're joking, right? 188kt jet. 966mb low into Vancouver Island. Big Rains, Mountain snows. 80-100mph winds along the Coast. Day 8+ was the only downside with the ridge popping up over us. EPS could be quite different. You know I only look at day 10. The present is so passé. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Still meh, 11202020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You know I only look at day 10. The present is so passé. https://tenor.com/view/are-you-serious-clark-clark-christmas-vacation-dinner-family-gif-5426034 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it. 6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said: Just noticed that I'm at 1949 reputation. Analog? Now it's at 1950. It's a sign! 2 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Sea Ice Index UPDATE After a bit of a delay with the Arctic Sea Ice recovery building more gradually, now over just the past 2 weeks alone we have gained over 2 million square kilometers of ice! I would love to see that abrupt rapid upward trend continue and by late November reach closer to the 1981-2010 average. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 The EPS ensemble mean and control model look a lot more like the operational GFS than the operational ECMWF as we get toward day 10. The control shows the block reinventing itself time and time again right through day 15. Lots of cold potential for the foreseeable future. It's a bit unusual to see this type of pattern set in so early in a La Nina season. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it. 6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes The trajectory is a bit off for a classic. No doubt some places would get windy with what is being shown though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 I'm wondering if this might end up being one of the relatively rare winters where we end up with nearly constant moderately below normal temperatures. Ones like 1916-17, 1948-49, 1978-79, and 1992-93 started off a lot like this. If we follow the script of those winters it will stay below normal much of the time and grow progressively colder until something more meaningful happens in December and January. That type of winter usually delivers one or two significant Arctic outbreaks. I'm not saying it will happen, but it bears some resemblance in the early going to winters that play out that way 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Wow! My daily average for Friday was 20 degrees lower than Wednesday. That's a pretty impressive cold front for these parts. The average today will be lower yet. Could be looking at close to a 25 degree drop over three days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The trajectory is a bit off for a classic. No doubt some places would get windy with what is being shown though. The track and trajectory is definitely not classic, no, but with the raging 180kt jet pointed at us the cold front is very strong. Look at the winds from just the west-east track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 6z GFS Day 2.5 (Past 4 runs) Interesting trend with the block showing improved amplification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Day 3.5 (Past 4 runs) Trying to trend colder it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Down to 42F. Might get down into the 30s. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 36.6 here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Resigned to the fact that it's always going to just torch here anymore. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 6z GFS 7 DAY GIF 500mb Height Anomaly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Onto 12z runs. I wonder what changes they will offer. Good night. 12z GFS in 4 hours 54 minutes 12z GEM in 5 hours 24 minutes 12z ECMWF in 7 hours 9 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Still looking good in the Cascades. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Nice to wake up to 35 instead of 61 that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 34 and frost here. Still time left to drop another degree or so. We will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Skies stayed clear here for most of the night. 32 degrees and frosty out there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Made it down to 32F. Didn't see that coming. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 There were more flurries earlier but again they didn't stick. 34 and overcast here. 1 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: There were more flurries earlier but again they didn't stick. 34 and overcast here. Looks like you should get some snow tonight and tomorrow morning according to the GFS! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Only got down to 37 this morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 The pattern for the next 10 days on the GFS is amazing for this time of year. Cool and wet with plenty of mountain snow. Great start to the season and then we can worry about low elevation events later. (I like snow) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 Temp dropped to 32.6 by 2:30am before it’s journey upward as clouds and fog moved in. Current temp 36* and low clouds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 7, 2020 Report Share Posted November 7, 2020 8 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it. 6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes This notches up my excitement level a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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