November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Now 46˚F after an overnight low of 36.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last nights 0Z GFS V16, which will soon be the new GFS, did show the pattern change, not as much as the 12Z did, but building heights in Alaska and some troughing in the PNW.

Also, last nights Korean model, which goes through 12 days, showed a similar pattern to the 0Z GFS v16.

Doesn't look, so far, like the GEFS will show it though.  And the Canadian, through day 10, looked to be no change from previous runs.

Looks like a good third of the GEFS members are cold on this run.  We will probably see the models have some serious fits over the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be interesting to see just how cold next week ends up being with the inversion.  It appears to be a textbook situation for a good one.  Hard to avoid some highs in the 30s showing up if it unfolds the way many inversions have in the past this time of year.

[Blizzard777]

Got my own copy and hanging it on the fridge !

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

6.68” here for the month. 44 here as well this morning. 

Some of the folks around you even hit the 7” mark.  Such a huge difference in our locations 

[Skagit Weather]

11 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Some of the folks around you even hit the 7” mark.  Such a huge difference in our locations 

3.48" here!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Y’all PDXers are due AF. Esp Washington county. Really hoping for good snow pics.

[Deweydog]

Who’s told who so far?

They all have to die.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This place died this morning. Would think

things would be more active with snow on the way. 

[snow_wizard]

With the 12z ECMWF the surface pressure map at day 10 is much more telling than the 500mb.  Low pressure is almost entirely gone over the NC and NE Pacific with it all shifting over NW Canada.  A big shift right around the 8th which the EPS has been consistent on.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This place died this morning. Would think

things would be more active with snow on the way. 

Once it gets toward the usual day 8 rug-pull (which won’t happen this time) is when it’ll start to pick up bigly.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This place died this morning. Would think

things would be more active with snow on the way. 

I’ve been outside since I saw it doing some maintenance to at least keep the ice dams somewhat manageable.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.  His area can do very well in major cold wave situations.  Up here we can catch a good break from a lot more borderline situations.  The real shocker for me is he didn't have one sub 40 high last winter.  We had a number up here and some snow as well.  So far this season we have had to deal with so much cloud cover it has really hurt our low temps. 

My average High was 36.0 in Dec 2013. Low averaged 9.4. My place did really well. A normal low is like 20 in December.

If those few highs in the 50's late month didn't occur it probably would have ended as my coolest December ever. I had 7 mornings in a row below zero (with a minimum of -20) and a crazy 10 days in a row of fog which survived the PM hours during that time. Occasionally I can see an all day fog but they do not tend to occur more than a day straight.

On the downside my biggest snowfall that entire winter was 5.00" on 12/06.

[SouthHillFrosty]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This place died this morning. Would think

things would be more active with snow on the way. 

I was prepping the house for the 3 feet snowbanks we’re about to have

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.  His area can do very well in major cold wave situations.  Up here we can catch a good break from a lot more borderline situations.  The real shocker for me is he didn't have one sub 40 high last winter.  We had a number up here and some snow as well.  So far this season we have had to deal with so much cloud cover it has really hurt our low temps. 

They had one in late November. They've already had one this year too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

My average High was 36.0 in Dec 2013. Low averaged 9.4. My place did really well. A normal low is like 20 in December.

If those few highs in the 50's late month didn't occur it probably would have ended as my coolest December ever. I had 7 mornings in a row below zero (with a minimum of -20) and a crazy 10 days in a row of fog which survived the PM hours during that time. Occasionally I can see an all day fog but they do not tend to occur more than a day straight.

On the downside my biggest snowfall that entire winter was 5.00" on 12/06.

I think that was the 2nd coldest December on record at EUG and 3rd coldest at Medford. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

They had one in late November.

Not meteorological winter. And that 1 in the cold weather season is still the fewest all-time.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think that was the 2nd coldest December on record at EUG and 3rd coldest at Medford. 

There was a site that listed Means from coldest-warmest (or the other way around) back to the 1940's and I remember it ranking Dec 2013 either #2 or #3 coldest. It locked horns with 1972 and that was a cold one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene was 34/21 on November 30th last year. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not meteorological winter. And that 1 in the cold weather season is still the fewest all-time.

No it wasn't. There were many years that had zero.

You guys have already had one this year too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was a site that listed Means from coldest-warmest (or the other way around) back to the 1940's and I remember it ranking Dec 2013 either #2 or #3 coldest. It locked horns with 1972 and that was a cold one.

It seems like a lot of our December’s which have included major cold snaps also have a period of torching either before or after. December 2016 was a top 10 cold December for much of the valley. Even though it had no top tier cold there was really no torching the entire month. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eugene was 34/21 on November 30th last year. 

Just one day off from busting Tiger's narrative. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’ve also never experienced a temp below 12F (being in Texas during 2013), I think that 12F that was back in Dec 1998. Is that fun? I’d imagine it would have to be. Also Arctic fronts have got to be fun too. Hopefully this winter can break those streaks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

No it wasn't. There were many years that had zero.

You guys have already had one this year too. 

Yup. Our coldest high so far is from late  November obviously. And our coldest low was back in October.

What other years on record had zero sub-40 highs from Dec-Feb? ACIS doesn’t show any.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup. Our coldest high so far is from late  November obviously. And our coldest low was back in October.

What other years had zero sub-40 highs from Dec-Feb? ACIS doesn’t show any.

I don't know that, but it seems like it's probably true. Too lazy to do the research so just shooting from the hip. Sound familiar?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Just one day off from busting Tiger's narrative. 

That last winter was shitt and we are one of the worst inland locations for winter events? That’s not a narrative, that’s a fact.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It seems like a lot of our December’s which have included major cold snaps also have a period of torching either before or after. December 2016 was a top 10 cold December for much of the valley. Even though it had no top tier cold there was really no torching the entire month. 

I had a Mean 7 degrees below the normal in Dec 2013 (22.5 vs. 29.5). In 2016 my Mean was less than a degree cooler than the normal. My coldest low was 7 and it's pretty easy to have some showers and 45+ degree highs in the mix at KLMT.

I gather places further north of me got colder that year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last winter was pretty mild. Even when things turned colder relative to average in February and March there were a ton of sunny days so it did not feel super wintery. We really overachieved with snow here, so in the end it was hard to be to disappointed. The last two years kind of blew up the warm Feb/Mar Nino narrative. 

[Jesse]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think that was the 2nd coldest December on record at EUG and 3rd coldest at Medford. 

When was the last time SEA had a top tier cold winter month? Seems utterly bafflingly mindboggling Eugene had one so much more recently. At least they do better with cool highs up there.

[Timmy Supercell]

Funny that in one week last January half my seasonal snow falls, and not one flake in February.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows the cold centered in the middle of the country at the end of the run...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows the cold centered in the middle of the country at the end of the run...

Nice that’s where I will be. It can hold off here until the 20th. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows the cold centered in the middle of the country at the end of the run...

That's a very loooong way off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

When was the last time SEA had a top tier cold winter month? Seems utterly bafflingly mindboggling Eugene had one so much more recently. At least they do better with cool highs up there.

I was just checking, it looks like December 2016 was the 10th coldest December in the 125 year period of record at SLE. More notably they had 5 months that year which were top 10 warmest, including November, which was the 2nd warmest on record. 

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup. Our coldest high so far is from late  November obviously. And our coldest low was back in October.

What other years on record had zero sub-40 highs from Dec-Feb? ACIS doesn’t show any.

Looks like 1917-18 didn't have a single one for Eugene all season. 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows the cold centered in the middle of the country at the end of the run...

 

That's a pretty cold signal there for that far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at SLE so far this year. The only two significantly warmer than average months this year were January and September. February and November will end up slightly below normal, and March was pretty solidly below normal. 

Here are the most anomalous months at SLE so far this year:

1) January +4.2

2) September +2.3

3) March -2.1

[TacomaWaWx]

Our best cold months here in the last 15 years have been December 2008, December 2016, January 2017 and February 2019. February 2019 was pretty legit with an average temp of just 35 degrees...the other months mentioned were in the 37-38 degree average range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a fun stat. 

Eugene had 15 sub-freezing lows last November. They then had only 12 combined in December and January. 

They have had 12 this November. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This place died this morning. Would think

things would be more active with snow on the way. 

We will see how the models look like in about 7-10 days. Encouraging signs so far atleast!