December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z EPS...

Well that's pitiful.

[Beltrami Island]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

GFS now has the SLP stalling over Sioux Falls, which is actually exactly what I need for highest totals.

Now it just needs to stay like that for 6 days lol

Every storm is a little different. But usually SLP center track from Sioux Falls to Duluth and continuing NE is my ideal for winter storms. I'm guessing similar track would benefit you as well.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro was actually a step in the right direction. It finally shows a storm, it's just weak, progressive, and disorganized with highest totals in MB. Baby steps, good trend towards GFS.

Terrible run for literally everyone on the sub besides Beltrami and I.

[whatitdo]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EPS...

welp. I'm sure a significant one will pop up during the 17th -23rd. Looks like I won't be seeing my first inch of snowfall til after I come back or even til '21 yayy

[Minny_Weather]

FGF treading lightly.

Quote

Summary...Our luck with a quiet December is beginning to run out
as models point to a weak Colorado Low moving through the Northern
Plains at the end of the coming work week. Confidence is low on
how strong it will be and effects the Red River Valley could see,
but the chance for snow is on the rise.

Monday through Wednesday...The prevailing Rex Block will flatten out
as we start the work week, but temperatures will continue to warm
for the time being. Above average temperatures can be expected for
highs, with places in the southern valley approaching the low 50s
mid-week. Sunshine will be abundant and the chance for breezy
conditions has been limited to the Devils Lake Basin for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Gusts could be greater than 25MPH in this area if
mixing outperforms what the models are suggesting.

Thursday through Sunday...A pattern change comes to the Northern
Plains as the upper level flow becomes more zonal in nature. This
allows for more shortwaves and troughs to traverse, and that`s
exactly what is expected to happen later this week. A Colorado Low
will begin to form and trek northeast mid-week. Majority of guidance
is leaning towards an open wave situation, with the jet stream
absorbing the disturbance and taking it back into Canada. With this
system, the chance for snow increases in the northern plains area.
Ensembles have not agreed on how much just yet, so we will continue
to monitor this situation as it unfolds. As of now, only confident
in mentioning there could be low-end impacts including accumulating
snowfall in the area. To start the weekend, we will return to more
average temperatures for December and a zonal pattern in the jet
stream will continue.

 

[Clinton]

0z ICON going big with the first and second wave.  Will post map as soon as it loads.

 

[bud2380]

ICON runs right through Iowa. Looks like heavy snow in the Dakota’s and a lot of Minnesota. 

[Clinton]

0z ICON

[bud2380]

LOL. Wow ICON. Ultimate troll job for us in Iowa. First system just to the north. Second system just to the south. 

[Clinton]

0z ICON still dumping at hr 180 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

LOL. Wow ICON. Ultimate troll job for us in Iowa. First system just to the north. Second system just to the south. 

Almost exactly how the precip fell in Oct.

[dubuque473]

And probably 50 degrees here lol

[Niko]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON

Bud..you are looking good w this one.

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON still dumping at hr 180 

Track looks golden.......

[Niko]

Attm, its beautiful outside. Temp at 28F under clear skies. Next week looks just about perfect to do stuff outside the house (wish I had the time), but yes, partly cloudy skies w temps in the 30s and 40s by mid week. Dry stretch of weather till about Friday. Not bad for this time of the year.

[bud2380]

GFS stays about the same. Not quite as strong as previous runs, but those were always overdone. Track holds similar. 

[bud2380]

GFS maintains only one wave. 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is significantly worse for me. Storm cuts less and is way more progressive so that knocks my total down to 3.

 

Thankfully Euro is still way North so hopefully the 2 models meet somewhere in the middle.

[Tom]

00z Euro...will it be one wave or two wave???  Both the Euro and GFS suggest one wave will eject out of the SW...

 

 

00z GEFS clearly highlighting a TX Panhandle hard cutter...

 

The noticeable trend among the models has been the quicker ejection of the cut-off low in the SW which has always been the questions among the models.  Back in late Oct, the models had a devil of a time trying to figure this out and its been happening again this time, until now, however...it appears that it will eject faster and phase with the N stream energy sliding down S/SE out B.C.

Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, I'm seeing the model picking up on stronger blocking over the Arctic circle and near Hudson Bay which allows the system to slow and dig as the SLP tracks along an elongated CF draped across the central Sub.  Interestingly, it looks like this may be a system whereby it slows/deepens as it tracks towards the Lower Lakes.  The 00z EPS has the main energy tracking a lot farther SE thru OK/MO/C IL/SE MI, thus shifting the snow mean farther SE now through S WI.

 

In terms of the 500mb N Hemisphere pattern, we continue to see more blocking over the Arctic regions as we get closer in time...

 

 

[Tom]

Looking ahead into the following week, run to run inconsistencies continue, but the trend is towards a more active pattern and last night's 00z EPS provides a glimmer of hope that the northern Sub begins to cash in on the white gold.

 

For fun, I thought I'd post the 00z Euro Control for the weekend storm that has a delayed strengthening of a secondary wave along a CF boundary which spins up heading into the Lower Lakes.

 

If we are to believe the Euro Strat forecast, how do you get N.A. cold???  This would be a classic Cross Polar Flow pattern...if this continues...watch for colder trends into parts of the N and E Sub...

 

Siberia SSW showing signs of enlightenment...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

RIP my hopes for a decent storm this weekend 12/6/2020-12/6/2020

[Madtown]

I think I like where I sit 5ish days out. Need some snow. Wi trails open the 15th and as of now we have a long ways to get there. GFS and Euro would get it done with 12"+ on the ground by next Wed. Just need to get the flakes out of model land and on the ground!

[james1976]

Nice storm showing up the following wed-thu as well

[Clinton]

6z ICON continues to weaken and push south the first piece of energy, while holding back energy over the Rockies.

[westMJim]

Yesterdays high of 31 at Grand Rapids was the coldest high since February 28 when the high reached 27. At this time it is cloudy and 28 here. As of this AM there has not been any rain or snow reported at Grand Rapids this month.

[Tom]

If there aren't changes in today's Euro Weeklies, specifically the EPO, it's going to be hard to press any sustained cold farther south.  On the flip side, if the blocking near Greenland grows stronger, it can allow for storms to dig a bit and allow for some opportunities.  I wish the CPC site would update their arctic oscillations forecast bc it has stopped at 11/25.  This would provide me with some solid data but I'm running blind right now.  Darn it!

[bud2380]

NAM just about coming into range.

 

[bud2380]

00z ICON vs. 12z ICON

Friday at 3pm on 00z.

 

Friday at 3pm on 12z

 

[james1976]

Was just about to comment on the ICON. What a joke

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

00z ICON vs. 12z ICON

Friday at 3pm on 00z.

 

Friday at 3pm on 12z

 

Went to far south with the main energy (I hope)

[bud2380]

The ICON has never proven to be a very good model though.  And it's showing the reasons why right now.  

[Tom]

Blocking is looking stronger per the 12z GFS....interesting to see the ICON dig the second wave...

[Madtown]

yikes so much for a hard cutter?

[jaster220]

Been in the 20's here since Saturday evening. This ain't November..

[james1976]

Can we just lock in that 12z GFS. Lol. I stay all snow. That defo band just sits overhead.

[bud2380]

Well the GFS got more interesting for those of us in Iowa.

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Well the GFS got more interesting for those of us in Iowa.

 

I still think there are more surprises ahead with the models.  I will say, however, it is looking better for us farther south esp  if the blocking keeps trending stronger.

[bud2380]

ok, let's play that game again.  00z GFS vs 12z GFS.

 

00z GFS at 6pm Friday

 

 

12z GFS at 6pm Friday

 

[bud2380]

Canadian still cuts the low right through Iowa.

 

[james1976]

Canadian is much more SE from previous run though.