December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[AbbyJr]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

SSW and it begins before Day 10 now. I do like seeing that.

And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO.

[Blizzard777]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This might be a dumb question, but how far west does a hood canal snow event go to? Does it just stay in the hood canal or does it reach Bremerton?

During one of those events had a friend report snow in Port Orchard area. Otherwise the Sound puts a huge  “X” saying no further you go snow  

[weatherwonder]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO.

Yes

its coming people!

the models will start to latch on soon

Patience 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO.

Thought I heard that was what happened in February 1989 and December 1990...I could be wrong though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

You just almost have to wonder if the models are about to flip. We go through this 10-14 day period during the active MJO cycle, stormy pattern, and then blocking abruptly takes over.

[Deweydog]

53 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We are definitely seeing some psychology on here. Haven’t decided what kind yet.  

1988-89!!!

[AbbyJr]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thought I heard that was what happened in February 1989 and December 1990...I could be wrong though. 

Can someone confirm this?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Can someone confirm this?

A major SSW/PV split occurred in mid January 1989.  

[AbbyJr]

Just now, Deweydog said:

A major SSW/PV split occurred in mid January 1989.  

Thanks, what about December 1990? Was that arctic blast preceded by a SSW? I heard the 2008 one as as well. Seems like SSW's are the best chance of us getting prolonged arctic blasts here in the PNW.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Thanks, what about December 1990? Was that arctic blast preceded by a SSW? I heard the 2008 one as as well. Seems like SSW's are the best chance of us getting prolonged arctic blasts here in the PNW.

2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either.

I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern.

There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them.  The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either.

I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern.

There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them.  The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future.

Conflicting reports!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Conflicting reports!

And deflecting retorts!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either.

I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern.

There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them.  The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future.

Agreed.  If you think about the fact that most years in the Western parts of WA and Oregon have at least some snow, how often have those been associated with a SSW?  Probably not most of them.  Also, there are "minor" SSW events that occur once or twice a year, and "major" events every 2 years.  That is not real often, and how often do any SSW events bring cold air to the PNW as opposed to other parts of the globe?

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Agreed.  If you think about the fact that most years in the Western parts of WA and Oregon have at least some snow, how often have those been associated with a SSW?  Probably not most of them.  Also, there are "minor" SSW events that occur once or twice a year, and "major" events every 2 years.  That is not real often, and how often do any SSW events bring cold air to the PNW as opposed to other parts of the globe?

Blockbuster patterns aren’t a necessity and SSW’s won’t dictate details.

Take late December 2003 through early January 2004 for example.  That was a pretty impressive stretch but it was by no means a monster on a 500mb level.

[Jesse]

56 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1988-89!!!

Looks like that was a VERY formative winter for you in more ways than one!!

[Deweydog]

I feel a conference call coming on...

[luminen]

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like that was a VERY formative winter for you in more ways than one!!

You're on a role today!

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I feel a conference call coming on...

Yeah, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who's dad works for the NWS out of Seattle. I guess it's pretty serious. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Yeah, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who's dad works for the NWS out of Seattle. I guess it's pretty serious. 

Any analogs for this?

[jakerepp]

Two years ago today, I was in a very different place.

Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Any analogs for this?

1986

[Jesse]

28 minutes ago, luminen said:

You're on a role today!

Yes, instead of weather discussion/occasional banter I should be sticking to more constructive “winter’s over, let’s pray for endless ridging “ type posts

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Two years ago today, I was in a very different place.

Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize

Wild guess here.....Edmonds

[paulb/eugene]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wild guess here.....Edmonds

Key West

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wild guess here.....Edmonds

It's very far from Edmonds...and far more...tropical. 

It says on the boat where this is, but it would be impossible to read once you've zoomed in enough.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Key West

Paul B. from Eugene! Feel like I haven’t seen you here for awhile.

[jakerepp]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Key West

Not too terribly far. I flew through Miami to get here, but it is outside the US.

[paulb/eugene]

Caymans

[luminen]

21 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yes, instead of weather discussion/occasional banter I should be sticking to more constructive “winter’s over, let’s pray for endless ridging “ type posts

Yes, we all should. 

The atmosphere will hear our collective crying and then eventually give us a January 1950 repeat.

[Timmy]

19 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Key West

Culver

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Belize

Well done!

This is Caye Caulke, Belize. 

Now I'm just wondering how you pulled that out. 

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Two years ago today, I was in a very different place.

Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize

Trick question...

The name of the boat indicates it’s an uncharted desert isle.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Well done!

This is Caye Caulke, Belize. 

Now I'm just wondering how you pulled that out. 

Probably did a reverse image search

[SouthHillFrosty]

Only to hour 330, but doesn't look terribly wet

 

[jakerepp]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Probably did a reverse image search

I tried that but it just showed certain boats that 'looked visually similar'. 

But Fred has explained it now. 

[BLI snowman]

18z made a doodoo.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks like an absolute torch fest. 

[luminen]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Sun angles **could** be playing a role here.

Not really. 

It's been socked in with heavy rain here all day and very dark @10C. Sun angles mean nothing this time of year. 

[jakeinthevalley]

6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Worth noting that Andrew’s dad and my dad also BOTH had birthdays around this time in 2008.  Hmmm...

I had a birthday in 2008 too

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful, mostly sunny day, we got up to 62F and had a +10F departure on the day so that should get us above average on the month and below normal for precip. Which is good because we have had a real lack of that over the past several months.