AbbyJr Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: SSW and it begins before Day 10 now. I do like seeing that. And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: This might be a dumb question, but how far west does a hood canal snow event go to? Does it just stay in the hood canal or does it reach Bremerton? During one of those events had a friend report snow in Port Orchard area. Otherwise the Sound puts a huge “X” saying no further you go snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO. Yes its coming people! the models will start to latch on soon Patience 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: And its a Siberian SSW. From what I hear, Siberian events are better for the PNW during -ENSO. Thought I heard that was what happened in February 1989 and December 1990...I could be wrong though. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 You just almost have to wonder if the models are about to flip. We go through this 10-14 day period during the active MJO cycle, stormy pattern, and then blocking abruptly takes over. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 53 minutes ago, Jesse said: We are definitely seeing some psychology on here. Haven’t decided what kind yet. 1988-89!!! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: Thought I heard that was what happened in February 1989 and December 1990...I could be wrong though. Can someone confirm this? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Can someone confirm this? A major SSW/PV split occurred in mid January 1989. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: A major SSW/PV split occurred in mid January 1989. Thanks, what about December 1990? Was that arctic blast preceded by a SSW? I heard the 2008 one as as well. Seems like SSW's are the best chance of us getting prolonged arctic blasts here in the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Thanks, what about December 1990? Was that arctic blast preceded by a SSW? I heard the 2008 one as as well. Seems like SSW's are the best chance of us getting prolonged arctic blasts here in the PNW. 2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either. I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern. There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them. The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future. 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: 2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either. I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern. There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them. The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future. Conflicting reports! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Conflicting reports! And deflecting retorts! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 2008 had no SSW assistance and I don’t believe 1990 did either. I sometimes wonder if SSW’s have become a little overly-romanticized lately, especially after February 2019 which was a massive SSW (in January) and obviously produced a massively unusual and persistent pattern. There are a lot of moving parts and this is just one of them. The only real guarantee with a SSW is that a lot of cold air is very likely to shift south in the somewhat near future. Agreed. If you think about the fact that most years in the Western parts of WA and Oregon have at least some snow, how often have those been associated with a SSW? Probably not most of them. Also, there are "minor" SSW events that occur once or twice a year, and "major" events every 2 years. That is not real often, and how often do any SSW events bring cold air to the PNW as opposed to other parts of the globe? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Agreed. If you think about the fact that most years in the Western parts of WA and Oregon have at least some snow, how often have those been associated with a SSW? Probably not most of them. Also, there are "minor" SSW events that occur once or twice a year, and "major" events every 2 years. That is not real often, and how often do any SSW events bring cold air to the PNW as opposed to other parts of the globe? Blockbuster patterns aren’t a necessity and SSW’s won’t dictate details. Take late December 2003 through early January 2004 for example. That was a pretty impressive stretch but it was by no means a monster on a 500mb level. 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 56 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 1988-89!!! Looks like that was a VERY formative winter for you in more ways than one!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 I feel a conference call coming on... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Jesse said: Looks like that was a VERY formative winter for you in more ways than one!! You're on a role today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I feel a conference call coming on... Yeah, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who's dad works for the NWS out of Seattle. I guess it's pretty serious. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Yeah, my best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who's dad works for the NWS out of Seattle. I guess it's pretty serious. Any analogs for this? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Two years ago today, I was in a very different place. Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Any analogs for this? 1986 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, luminen said: You're on a role today! Yes, instead of weather discussion/occasional banter I should be sticking to more constructive “winter’s over, let’s pray for endless ridging “ type posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Two years ago today, I was in a very different place. Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize Wild guess here.....Edmonds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wild guess here.....Edmonds Key West 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wild guess here.....Edmonds It's very far from Edmonds...and far more...tropical. It says on the boat where this is, but it would be impossible to read once you've zoomed in enough. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Key West Paul B. from Eugene! Feel like I haven’t seen you here for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, paulb/eugene said: Key West Not too terribly far. I flew through Miami to get here, but it is outside the US. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Caymans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, Jesse said: Yes, instead of weather discussion/occasional banter I should be sticking to more constructive “winter’s over, let’s pray for endless ridging “ type posts Yes, we all should. The atmosphere will hear our collective crying and then eventually give us a January 1950 repeat. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 19 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Key West Culver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Belize Well done! This is Caye Caulke, Belize. Now I'm just wondering how you pulled that out. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 42 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Two years ago today, I was in a very different place. Whomever can guess where this is gets a prize Trick question... The name of the boat indicates it’s an uncharted desert isle. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Well done! This is Caye Caulke, Belize. Now I'm just wondering how you pulled that out. Probably did a reverse image search Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Only to hour 330, but doesn't look terribly wet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Probably did a reverse image search I tried that but it just showed certain boats that 'looked visually similar'. But Fred has explained it now. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z made a doodoo. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 18z looks like an absolute torch fest. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Jesse said: Sun angles **could** be playing a role here. Not really. It's been socked in with heavy rain here all day and very dark @10C. Sun angles mean nothing this time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Deweydog said: Worth noting that Andrew’s dad and my dad also BOTH had birthdays around this time in 2008. Hmmm... I had a birthday in 2008 too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Beautiful, mostly sunny day, we got up to 62F and had a +10F departure on the day so that should get us above average on the month and below normal for precip. Which is good because we have had a real lack of that over the past several months. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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