December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I will assume that inch or so at the top of the coast range is overnight Saturday.

[Gradient Keeper]

One bit of encouraging news(and we need that!) is the 12z GEFS shows a stout SSW beginning just before Day 8. That's really encouraging rather than the signal initializing at Day 14. In fact, I do believe the GEFS has sped up timing too.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 37 minutes

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

At the moment models are sticking with Putin’s house and Sara Palin’s backyard.

Migraine inducing pattern regardless.

The big league cold for now, yeah. But still looks like a lot more cold than we have been seeing for much of the mid latitudes, starting this week.

[rsktkr]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point I would go with better than even odds of SLE pulling an average high above 50 this month. 

BRUTAL. What have we done to deserve this?

[Gradient Keeper]

20 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

BRUTAL. What have we done to deserve this?

People stopped believing in Santa Claus. Back during our major outbreaks or snow storms of the past a significant % of Americans believed in a fat, white man in red suit who flew around on a sleigh pulled by mystical, magical reindeer. He targeted chimneys most often, but not wood stoves ironically. Yeah. Now? Not so much.

00z GEFS(Pivotal) in 5 hours 13 minutes

[Deweydog]

Still plenty of snow shovels at Costco!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

IDK if it is just me, but I thought the 18z was OK.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK if it is just me, but I thought the 18z was OK.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had to come into the office.  Nice evening. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mountain snow looks better

[paulb/eugene]

I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. 
The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days.  When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks.  
the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through.  Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow.

 

good happens

bad happens

 

yin and yang

2020...2021

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. 
The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days.  When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks.  
the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through.  Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow.

 

good happens

bad happens

 

yin and yang

2020...2021

Hey, Paul! Real good to see you here. You may know me from Fox 12 Blog, "Rob S.E. Portland"

[paulb/eugene]

If your biological clock is waking you up at 2am to check out the 6z and all you get is the same mild bull , it is time to put the phone down and wait two weeks. A 508dm upper low inside of 120h will then show up over PDX

[Jesse]

Mostly sunny with some scattered showers this afternoon, and one of the milder days of the month so far. 52/43 here, 54/43 at PDX.

The good news is skies are clearing and the temperature is dropping quickly, so those lows should improve. Decent chance it will be foggy and in the 30s before too long this evening. Down to 45 currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. 
The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days.  When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks.  
the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through.  Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow.

 

good happens

bad happens

 

yin and yang

2020...2021

Great point. 

 

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Great point. 

 

Andrew what did you think of my obs post for today 

[bainbridgekid]

4 years ago today was a pretty fun snowstorm.

[Deweydog]

44 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. 
The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days.  When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks.  
the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through.  Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow.

 

good happens

bad happens

 

yin and yang

2020...2021

Sadistic as it seems, the first nine days of the month have been pretty encouraging.  The brief blip of potentially-exceptional inversion cold followed by a quick-hitting retrogression/back door cold was a little disheartening.  As it stands, I’d guess we’re much better off at this point when it comes to the long game...

Or not!!!

[paulb/eugene]

Normal, for a lack of a better word, is good.  Normal works.  
 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

If Alaska and the Yukon get as cold as forecast, the barrel is loaded and ready to fire. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

15 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

If Alaska and the Yukon get as cold as forecast, the barrel is loaded and ready to fire. 

And all bottled up there.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And all bottled up there.

For now..................

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Where is that graph that shows model accuracy from 1 day out to 2 weeks??  I think Mark posted it on the blog years ago.

[luminen]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

People stopped believing in Santa Claus. Back during our major outbreaks or snow storms of the past a significant % of Americans believed in a fat, white man in red suit who flew around on a sleigh pulled by mystical, magical reindeer. He targeted chimneys most often, but not wood stoves ironically. Yeah. Now? Not so much.

00z GEFS(Pivotal) in 5 hours 13 minutes

I still believe in Santa.

He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, luminen said:

I still believe in Santa.

He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk.

Correct. Expect an extra gift this Christmas.

00z GFS in 24 minutes

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, luminen said:

I still believe in Santa.

He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk.

Or that ever-elusive snowstorm that buries the valley out to the coast with 24-36" widespread.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

One bit of encouraging news(and we need that!) is the 12z GEFS shows a stout SSW beginning just before Day 8. That's really encouraging rather than the signal initializing at Day 14. In fact, I do believe the GEFS has sped up timing too.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 37 minutes

18z was a huge improvement in the strat.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z was a huge improvement in the strat.

and the Drunk Uncle leads the way!

 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Or uphill. January averages 0.5F warmer than December here. 

For now...

[Deweydog]

Nice timing for the increase in solar activity!

[FroYoBro]

Already have fog quickly forming here. Going to be a spooky night! 

[Tyler Mode]

Three from Alaska...one from Battle Ground.

There's a reason I go back to Alaska every year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So about those bodies...

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z was a huge improvement in the strat.

Let's keep it going! 00z GFS running right about now.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

For now...

Yes. Maybe it’ll flip again.  My dad used to tell me stories that were passed down from my grandfather about how amazing January used to be.  Snow so deep that they ran out of places to pile it. And cold so cold that the ocean would freeze over. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So about those bodies...

I say let them hit the floor.  Like the PNA!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal stuck at HR 6

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I say let them hit the floor.  Like the PNA!!!

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Pivotal stuck at HR 6

Pretty typical. Expect the next 40 hours all at once in a few minutes lol