SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows lots of snow down to sea level... here is a zoomed in map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 The UKMET 00z has 3.6 inches in Seattle occurring between 4pm-10pm on Monday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Here is the placement of the c-zone at 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning... this is 1-hour precip and not snow but obviously its all snow at that time. Trust me Tim, you will the big winner (accumulation wise) especially outside of the Port Angeles/Sequim area/s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 7 Aleutian ridge looks healthier thus far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro showing marginal temperatures below 800' or so. Though with those precip rates, would not be surprised to see brief accumulations down to 3-500', and brief periods of full on snow down to sea level. Lots yet to work out. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Doubt it has ensemble support but we will see!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jbolin said: Trust me Tim, you will the big winner (accumulation wise) especially outside of the Port Angeles/Sequim area/s. Interestingly... Bellingham gets almost as much as my area per the 00Z ECMWF. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Doubt it has ensemble support but we will see!! Ensembles are not too meaningful when looking at surface features... or when looking at an event just 72 hours away. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows lots of snow down to sea level... here is a zoomed in map. I would like to order one of these, please. Maybe if I got an inch or two I could scrounge up enough from around the yard to build a pile to last for a few days and have my third white Christmas in my life. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Port Angeles had almost no snow between January 2012 and February 2019. I think just a couple of 2-3" events in there, but they generally got skunked, even in 16-17. Would be wild to see them get another big event, I think they've already more than made up for that streak. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, wxmet said: The UKMET 00z has 3.6 inches in Seattle occurring between 4pm-10pm on Monday. Surface temperatures are hugging freezing all the way down to sea level. Could cr*p out a few inches w/ that airmass. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Interestingly... Bellingham gets almost as much as my area per the 00Z ECMWF. I've seen similar events over the years and a rapidly developing NNW wind usually shadows areas like the extreme Northern interior and especially in the central sound. Your location, upslope of the west slopes and the strait are likely to do the best in this marginal scenario. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Port Angeles had almost no snow between January 2012 and February 2019. I think just a couple of 2-3" events in there, but they generally got skunked, even in 16-17. Would be wild to see them get another big event, I think they've already more than made up for that streak. Definitely a major feast or famine location there. They're shadowed from a lot of Seattle's biggest snowstorms and are left high and dry with lows that come too far South but get buried when there is good Northerly flow and a storm tracking over the Olympics. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Surface temperatures are hugging freezing all the way down to sea level. Could cr*p out a few inches w/ that airmass. Stays cold for most of the week too (20s and 30s). Friday is the only day I see it taking Seattle up to 40 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 hours ago, Bonovox said: Northern areas do well. I'm not falling for that again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I could see this storm showing zero inches on Monday morning for seattle and still dropping a coup inches. This has been all over the map 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 That's actually ridiculously close to a brush with arctic air. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 This is one of those very rare situations in the PNW where lowland snow appears possible but uncertain. #onlyin2020 2 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: That's actually ridiculously close to a brush with arctic air. Dare I say Day 7-10 on the GEM and EURO offered some slight optimism. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: This is one of those very rare situations in the PNW where lowland snow appears possible but uncertain. #onlyin2020 Ahhhh, the voice of reason has spoken, all is well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This is one of those very rare situations in the PNW where lowland snow appears possible but uncertain. #onlyin2020 First time it's even been possible since last March so I'll definitely take it. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Dare I say Day 7-10 on the GEM and EURO offered some slight optimism. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I hope you all realize that our extreme weenieism (is that a word?) this morning caused the model shift...Way to go team weenies!!! 2 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, MossMan said: I hope you all realize that our extreme weenieism (is that a word?) this morning caused the model shift...Way to go team weenie!! Hot dogs for all 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: I hope you all realize that our extreme weenieism (is that a word?) this morning caused the model shift...Way to go team weenies!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Of course I won’t be home for the first (of several, I’m sure!!) time it snows this winter. I’ll be reporting from the Methow until Wednesday. Seems like that area has been giving the Spokane Mets some trouble trying to figure out if/when the cold air will get squelched out and turn to rain. Had about six inches of new stuff since Sunday when I did a quick run up yesterday to drop some stuff off. Need to plow before next round comes in. I will post my John Deere plow pics for @MossMan godspeed brothers.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, wxmet said: The UKMET 00z has 3.6 inches in Seattle occurring between 4pm-10pm on Monday. Pretty amazing to have the WRF, UKMET, and ECMWF all show snow in the same general area. Tonight's runs show quite a dump of cold air behind the low. It appears it's getting more of a baroclinic band look once again. Given the precip intensity being shown and 925mb temps dropping to -1 or -2 some areas could get quite a treat. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Not sure if this was shared already but fairly cool read about the surprise CZ snow that occurred on this date in 1990. http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow/the-mother-of-all-convergence-zones/ I was living in the sweet spot on that one. What an awesome event that was. A few days later it dropped to zero IMBY. The house I was living had single pane windows and I remember the windows being solid frost on the inside with amazing ice designs. The possible Monday event seems very much like Dec 1974 to me. That was much more of limited cold / heavy wet snow event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 57 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Dare I say Day 7-10 on the GEM and EURO offered some slight optimism. C'MON!!!! Very deep low digging off he coast of Asia on the ECMWF with some ridging being dredged up over the Central Pacific. Much better look than some of the recent GFS runs. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I won't be able to make the 06z again tonight. Tomorrow I'll likely have it covered. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Heavy snow shower right now. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, umadbro said: Heavy snow shower right now. In Ridgefield? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Jbolin said: In Ridgefield? Yessir. Flakes Are melting around 6k feet overhead. But it's snowing hard, I'm sure. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Port Angeles had almost no snow between January 2012 and February 2019. I think just a couple of 2-3" events in there, but they generally got skunked, even in 16-17. Would be wild to see them get another big event, I think they've already more than made up for that streak. Interesting that they didn't get much in 16-17. There were three 4~6" events in Victoria that winter. Their feast/famine cycle is even more extreme than here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 6z NAM actually went North and shows no snow South of the border. I'll be up for the 6z GFS to see how it handles things. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 At hour 48 the South trend continues on the 6z. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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