December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I posted the GEFS up above. HR 12 (4 AM(likely a few hours sooner) shows the stratospheric warming begins)

Thanks Rob. Just a little hard to read that model. At least what’s going on with it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Thanks Rob. Just a little hard to read that model. At least what’s going on with it. 

No problem.

 

[Meatyorologist]

In the spirit of handing out resources, one website I will be eagerly checking as this SSW commences is the worldwide sounding network here:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

To see Siberian soundings, just select the "Arctic" option in the drop down menu below the "Regions" tab. Then click on one of the stations on the little map, and another tab will open up showing a spreadsheet of data from the surface all the way to 100mb (sometimes higher in the tropics since the tropopause is higher there.) It's a bit daunting at first, but after reading the legends you'll see it's actually quite organized.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

In the spirit of handing out resources, one website I will be eagerly checking as this SSW commences is the worldwide sounding network here:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

To see Siberian soundings, just select the "Arctic" option in the drop down menu below the "Regions" tab. Then click on one of the stations on the little map, and another tab will open up showing a spreadsheet of data from the surface all the way to 100mb (sometimes higher in the tropics since the tropopause is higher there.) It's a bit daunting at first, but after reading the legends you'll see it's actually quite organized.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

Pretty hard to complain about the 0z GFS.  Very suppressed jet for much of the run and then rising height over the GOA late in the run.  Maybe we will actually have a January this winter.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Maybe the Greenland high is interfering with the SE ridge that we would need to lock in a pattern of greatness though?

I've been thinking about that hurting us, but as Phil has pointed out January 1969 was one of the all time great -NAO events (Greenland high), and that was epic here.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So this SSW that’s been talked about for weeks still hasn’t even started? Yawn. 
 

And lol at that anticyclone over Greenland. It’s only gotten stronger. Is it Summer yet? 

The SSW is here.  A lot of misinformation being thrown about the last few days.  It is happening and will be complete in less than 10 days according to the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GEFS shows it's underway by 2-4 AM tomorrow.

Indeed.  I'm getting tired of people trying to make it sound like it's not getting any closer.

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  I'm getting tired of people trying to make it sound like it's not getting any closer.

I think the confusion here is that the complexity of the ssw means that when someone says something like "oh it hasn't even started yet" there is some weird truth there in the sense that it is modeled to start but wind reversal isn't actually projected until the first week of jan and it even then the consequences are both delayed and uncertain. OR they just don't look at the maps.

[snow_wizard]

I really like the end of the GFS.  Deep low off the Coast of Asia and a big ridge being dredged up over the Central Pacific / GOA.  Now it just has to happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I think the confusion here is that the complexity of the ssw means that when someone says something like "oh it hasn't even started yet" there is some weird truth there in the sense that it is modeled to start but wind reversal isn't actually projected until the first week of jan and it even then the consequences are both delayed and uncertain. OR they just don't look at the maps.

The stratospheric PV is split in two in less than a week now.  From there we shall see how it unfolds.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

La Nina has arrived.  Step 2 is amplification.

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  I'm getting tired of people trying to make it sound like it's not getting any closer.

You shouldn't worry about what other people say, at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10-16. Jet seems to be retracting as upper low retrogrades back into interior Siberia. Thoughts?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Hmmm!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

 

[GHweatherChris]

Hmmmm....

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

 

I’m in a shade of blue! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift?

[Kolk1604]

Here's the 10 day total snow accumulation for Washington. Hoping this keeps going up with each run!

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind is really gusty here now howling.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's the 10 day total snow accumulation for Washington. Hoping this keeps going up with each run!

Where do you get that version of the map?   Do you subscribe?  The one I see is of course very similar (free), but it does not list the cities and is not quite as detailed.  Is yours the "local" version only for subscribers?  Mine  looks like this:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Where do you get that version of the map?   Do you subscribe?  The one I see is of course very similar (free), but it does not list the cities and is not quite as detailed.  Is yours the "local" version only for subscribers?  Mine  looks like this:

 

I have the same question. I'm thinking so

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the jetstream at about 30,000 feet for the last few days of the Euro:

 

[Kolk1604]

16 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Where do you get that version of the map?   Do you subscribe?  The one I see is of course very similar (free), but it does not list the cities and is not quite as detailed.  Is yours the "local" version only for subscribers?  Mine  looks like this:

 

Yeah, it's part of their 6.99/month subscription. Things looked liked they were starting to get interesting so I subscribed. 

You can also see the total snowfall in Kuchera, but that was depressing lol

Edit: Yeah, it's under the local tab. It was Free last year. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kolk1604

[bainbridgekid]

13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's the 10 day total snow accumulation for Washington. Hoping this keeps going up with each run!

I was hoping to see a better setup based on this map, but unfortunately this is all supposed to fall at day 7 in a setup where 850mb temps are barely below freezing and the precip maps show mostly rain not snow. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the Kuchera:

[Kolk1604]

For DJ. Sorry not as exciting

[OysterPrintout]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The stratospheric PV is split in two in less than a week now.  From there we shall see how it unfolds.

Yes but even cursory glances at the GFS vs Euro show us that we're not really sure where or how the bifurcation plays out, let alone the long term effects.

I was mostly responding about people on this forum that you were responding to that were asking "WHERE IS THE SSW BRAH" when looking at the models show we are still in a high state of uncertainty about the timing and downstream consequences.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is the Kuchera:

Yup the same. Looks better though when zoomed out

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The Dub up north fidna get another W. Happy for them.