Jump to content
The Weather Forums

DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 409
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Myself on the right. GF's son on left. And this is only 2 hours in. Can't imagine how this will be later!

12z Euro Control has a different look to it compared to the OP but further south with the precip.  

Just upgraded to a blizzard warning! Welcome to the blizz!  Now up to 12” in the point. Yowza! 

Posted Images

NWS Hastings with an interesting morning disco:  

Regardless of how QPF evolves, its likely we see a very strong surge of cold air as the amplifying upper flow will be coming nearly straight S out of Canada. Its also likely this surge of cold air will be coming in on strong NNW winds sustained at 20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. This will result in falling temps on Wed and cold wind chills falling to near zero Wed night. This is roughly a 50-60F drop in feels like temps in about 36hrs from Tue aftn to Wed night...a big change for sure! Finally, with the strong winds even the slightest bit of snow will be blown around and could cause visbility issues for anyone traveling on Wed ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overall, it`s not looking like this will amount to a major winter storm locally in terms of snow amounts, but the potential for lgt snow to overlap with strong winds and surge of cold air is concerning given the timing being during potentially busy travel period just before a holiday...and sometimes its the lgt snow events that cause as much or more travel headaches than the big storms. Will insert some wording into HWO and incr awareness of potential via social media for now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

I wouldn't say it's killing our chances (vibes). It's offering up one outcome that still delivers snow. To say the models are struggling to figure this out is an understatement. Also been stated that in the end, none of the solutions currently shown will have been accurate, and the entire event "collapses" for our region. Personally, I doubt it collapses into a complete dud, but something much less thrilling than early explosive modelling is currently looking strong. That GEM map tho, still shows a very healthy LES signature, and the ICON with a 980's mb SLP in Wisco would work out favorably as well for backside LES storm. I doubt this is really settled until Tuesday. It's even possible that once full sampling occurs, we see models trend back to a more robust scenario. This keeps us guessing and pondering and reminds me of the hype for Dec 2014 Christmas miracle storm which didn't even have a decent cold air blast to work with like we have this time around. For now, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the model ride hoping for the best. Since it is Christmas week, tracking "a chance" > tracking cold and dry.

  • Like 4

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. 

And that's concerning since it was the one model that called the 11/30-12/1 bomb-storm bluffing that all the others were flashing. In the end it was correct. As said in my other post, this "could" go dud. Let's hope not, but yeah, the UKmet has me a bit nervous.

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds....

1.png

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

I am very curious to see how models handle the situation tomorrow as that energy rolls on in from the Pacific.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro has rain breaking out ahead of the front in E Iowa on the morning of the 23rd with a changeover to snow mid afternoon, ending by mid evening.  So this is a quick hitter.  Only about 6 hours or so.  So we'd need 1/2" per hour rates to get to 3".  

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, GDR said:

718BDFF4-7DCA-4445-B398-E8A801470EDD.jpeg

LOL.

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

20201221 0z fh60 conus model compare.gif

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ofc, what happens with the particulars during the following 48-60 hours from Wed. morning is what everybody's interested in. For those of us in the Mitt, this puts the LES back in the spot-light. GRR already mentioned it may be Tuesday before they can put out any snowfall maps with a higher degree of confidence. I like the GEM (so far) and this morning's Euro was decent too.

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GEM thru 1 pm Saturday via Kuchera formula (includes small amts for the incoming clipper).

Pushing 7" around here.

 

20201221 0z GEM h138 Snowfall-SLR.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

20201221 0z fh60 conus model compare.gif

Sadly, the GFS won this battle hands down as it was primarily leaning towards the N wave for the most part.  Looks like my chances of a White Christmas are dwindling down but yours and other are on the rise.  Hey, at least it will FEEL like Winter around here during the holiday.   Hoping to see some flakes fly buy prob not here around the Chi.  Sweet looking lake effect streamers showing up on the global models at this range.  I'm sure once we get close inside 48-72 hours the higher rez models are going to show some nasty streamers coming off of LM.

 

1.png

 

 

00z Euro control...

2.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Legitimate blizzard for here on the NAMs.

  • Snow 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Festivus Miracle for the Twin Cities!!!  (where I will be)  06Z Euro. image.thumb.png.9bce2fa7b421fc4f0d147c2e50f47383.png

Yup ill be in St Paul as well. Was gonna go up Wednesday night but I think ill head up Tuesday night instead so I can be there for the entire storm.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

FGF eyeing blizzard potential across the CWA. The wind will be there, but will the snow?

Quote

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and strong winds are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible and winds could
  gust as high as 50 mph. Where the wind and snow overlap,
  significant reductions in visibility could develop.

* WHERE...Eastern North Dakota into portions of the northwest
  quarter of Minnesota.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Areas of falling and blowing snow could significantly
  reduce the visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below
  to 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This event will occur during the Wednesday
  morning rush, and it also falls during a busy holiday travel
  period.

 

  • Like 3

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP currently only going with 1-3"

1-3" works for me!!!! White is White!!!

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP currently only going with 1-3"

FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet.

Neither does MSP. It was in the AFD.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Models had been showing precipitation associated with the cold front in addition to the surface low, but now models are changing to primarily precip associated with the surface low, which is why precip chances are drying up further south.  12z ICON reinforcing this idea as well.  I believe this will mark 3 straight brown Christmases in Eastern Iowa.  The last white Christmas we had, I believe we got an inch or so of snow right before Christmas.  

  • Sad 2

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...