DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes

[Money 1429]

Gfs says everyone is crazy 

[bud2380 3517]

I think the GFS is just broken. It’s basically the only model showing a completely dry frontal passage. It was dead wrong with the last storm. We’ll see what happens with this one. 

[GDR 665]

Gfs showing a few inches up into Canada 

[Niko 7225]

This is looking like a "No Show" for my area and maybe for some. Teleconnections are just not favorable here in SEMI.

[james1976 3976]

Kinda seems like the GFS is on its own now with the far north route.

[james1976 3976]

12z Canadian gives a lot if us a couple inches

[james1976 3976]

DMX is now siding with the Euro. Yesterday they were siding with the GFS. Lol. Now they are saying basically an inch or less, per this morning's AFD.

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON. Central Iowa does well

 

I would take this. GFS is a nothing burger for most, however. 

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

NWS Hastings with an interesting morning disco:  

Regardless of how QPF evolves, its likely we see a very strong surge of cold air as the amplifying upper flow will be coming nearly straight S out of Canada. Its also likely this surge of cold air will be coming in on strong NNW winds sustained at 20-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. This will result in falling temps on Wed and cold wind chills falling to near zero Wed night. This is roughly a 50-60F drop in feels like temps in about 36hrs from Tue aftn to Wed night...a big change for sure! Finally, with the strong winds even the slightest bit of snow will be blown around and could cause visbility issues for anyone traveling on Wed ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overall, it`s not looking like this will amount to a major winter storm locally in terms of snow amounts, but the potential for lgt snow to overlap with strong winds and surge of cold air is concerning given the timing being during potentially busy travel period just before a holiday...and sometimes its the lgt snow events that cause as much or more travel headaches than the big storms. Will insert some wording into HWO and incr awareness of potential via social media for now.

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

 

[bud2380 3517]

Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. 

[jaster220 8342]

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

I wouldn't say it's killing our chances (vibes). It's offering up one outcome that still delivers snow. To say the models are struggling to figure this out is an understatement. Also been stated that in the end, none of the solutions currently shown will have been accurate, and the entire event "collapses" for our region. Personally, I doubt it collapses into a complete dud, but something much less thrilling than early explosive modelling is currently looking strong. That GEM map tho, still shows a very healthy LES signature, and the ICON with a 980's mb SLP in Wisco would work out favorably as well for backside LES storm. I doubt this is really settled until Tuesday. It's even possible that once full sampling occurs, we see models trend back to a more robust scenario. This keeps us guessing and pondering and reminds me of the hype for Dec 2014 Christmas miracle storm which didn't even have a decent cold air blast to work with like we have this time around. For now, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the model ride hoping for the best. Since it is Christmas week, tracking "a chance" > tracking cold and dry.

[jaster220 8342]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Ukie remains very boring. It really hasn’t shown much at all for this storm on any run. 

And that's concerning since it was the one model that called the 11/30-12/1 bomb-storm bluffing that all the others were flashing. In the end it was correct. As said in my other post, this "could" go dud. Let's hope not, but yeah, the UKmet has me a bit nervous.

[Niko 7225]

I'll accept this for mby.....

[bud2380 3517]

Euro is so weak. But does still manage to drop an inch or so across eastern Iowa. We may eek out a white Christmas 

[bud2380 3517]

Euro 

[Tom 16870]

12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds....

[Madtown 1086]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds....

woah

[Grizzcoat 3783]

18z icon still good for many..

[bud2380 3517]

GFS continues to insist the FROPA will be dry. 

[jaster220 8342]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...LES belts of MI do rather well on this run as there is much colder air along with favorable WNW winds....

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

[Niko 7225]

13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That's quite the weenie band one county north of me, plus it is on a global that strong. Nice to see.

I am very curious to see how models handle the situation tomorrow as that energy rolls on in from the Pacific.

[bud2380 3517]

18z Euro is almost identical to the 12z.  This is 10:1 so amounts are lower, but qpf is about the same.

 

[bud2380 3517]

Euro has rain breaking out ahead of the front in E Iowa on the morning of the 23rd with a changeover to snow mid afternoon, ending by mid evening.  So this is a quick hitter.  Only about 6 hours or so.  So we'd need 1/2" per hour rates to get to 3".  

[bud2380 3517]

GFS finally coming in line with the euro on the precip associated with the frontal passage. 

[bud2380 3517]

It appears to be warmer though (shocker) and isn’t Picking up on much snow potential. 

[Madtown 1086]

any maps I can't get anything to load on pivotal 

[GDR 665]

[jaster220 8342]

51 minutes ago, GDR said:

LOL.

[snowstorm83 2024]

At least Nashville has a shot at a White Christmas

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Euro would give many IA posters a white Christmas- and the Twin Cities

(probably 1.5 these amounts)

 

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Can't be picky

[jaster220 8342]

...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

[jaster220 8342]

Ofc, what happens with the particulars during the following 48-60 hours from Wed. morning is what everybody's interested in. For those of us in the Mitt, this puts the LES back in the spot-light. GRR already mentioned it may be Tuesday before they can put out any snowfall maps with a higher degree of confidence. I like the GEM (so far) and this morning's Euro was decent too.

[jaster220 8342]

GEM thru 1 pm Saturday via Kuchera formula (includes small amts for the incoming clipper).

Pushing 7" around here.

 

[Tom 16870]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

...aaaannnddd we have consensus. Gonna be N wave dominant for the sub. Here's a comparison of 6 models on the 21/0z run for 23/12z. GFS is the furthest north, others much more clustered in C. Minny.

 

Sadly, the GFS won this battle hands down as it was primarily leaning towards the N wave for the most part.  Looks like my chances of a White Christmas are dwindling down but yours and other are on the rise.  Hey, at least it will FEEL like Winter around here during the holiday.   Hoping to see some flakes fly buy prob not here around the Chi.  Sweet looking lake effect streamers showing up on the global models at this range.  I'm sure once we get close inside 48-72 hours the higher rez models are going to show some nasty streamers coming off of LM.

 

 

 

00z Euro control...

[FAR_Weather 5214]

Legitimate blizzard for here on the NAMs.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

Festivus Miracle for the Twin Cities!!!  (where I will be)  06Z Euro.

[bud2380 3517]

Wow significant shift north on the Euro. Guess it’s white flag time down here for a white Christmas 

[james1976 3976]

30 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Festivus Miracle for the Twin Cities!!!  (where I will be)  06Z Euro.

Yup ill be in St Paul as well. Was gonna go up Wednesday night but I think ill head up Tuesday night instead so I can be there for the entire storm.

[james1976 3976]

MSP currently only going with 1-3"

[FAR_Weather 5214]

FGF eyeing blizzard potential across the CWA. The wind will be there, but will the snow?

Quote

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and strong winds are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible and winds could
  gust as high as 50 mph. Where the wind and snow overlap,
  significant reductions in visibility could develop.

* WHERE...Eastern North Dakota into portions of the northwest
  quarter of Minnesota.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Areas of falling and blowing snow could significantly
  reduce the visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below
  to 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This event will occur during the Wednesday
  morning rush, and it also falls during a busy holiday travel
  period.

 

[Grizzcoat 3783]

8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP currently only going with 1-3"

1-3" works for me!!!! White is White!!!

[FAR_Weather 5214]

14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MSP currently only going with 1-3"

FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet.

[Grizzcoat 3783]

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF doesn't even have any amounts on the grid yet.

Neither does MSP. It was in the AFD.

[Madtown 1086]

hope the gfs is wrong as the last storm

[bud2380 3517]

NAM shows very little precip with the frontal passage in Iowa and what it does show, is primarily rain. 

[bud2380 3517]

Models had been showing precipitation associated with the cold front in addition to the surface low, but now models are changing to primarily precip associated with the surface low, which is why precip chances are drying up further south.  12z ICON reinforcing this idea as well.  I believe this will mark 3 straight brown Christmases in Eastern Iowa.  The last white Christmas we had, I believe we got an inch or so of snow right before Christmas.  

[james1976 3976]

Looks like I'll be heading to the TC early for this!

[Grizzcoat 3783]

dang- the differences in the GFS from 06Z to 12Z are unreal.

06Z 12Z