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DECEMBER 23-26 Potential storm for SW Great Lakes


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3 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...

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The BIG difference this run compared to the previous runs off the Euro is the separation between the N wave and S wave...is this a trend or just a fluke run???  The worry is that blocking disappears right around this time just west of Greenland that can increase the flow and allow the N stream zip across while the southern energy cuts off the main flow in future runs and doesn't really phase into a strong storm.

 

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The 00z Ukie is doing the same thing...

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Albeit it minor, but there are subtle changes developing across the central Plains into the MW/Lower Lakes in the 00z EPS...it looks like there are more members trying to "fill in the gap" from CO into KS/MO up into the GL's.  The 00z Euro control heading in that direction as well.

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Actually, I looked at all the 51 ensemble members and there are clearly many more members developing the S wave into a stronger system.  Signs pointing that the models may be honing in on the southern wave.

 

What a change in the last 24 hours for the Euro.  The chance of a white Christmas is alive and well for my area.  Only about 10% of Christmas's here have an inch or more of snow cover.

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Myself on the right. GF's son on left. And this is only 2 hours in. Can't imagine how this will be later!

12z Euro Control has a different look to it compared to the OP but further south with the precip.  

Just upgraded to a blizzard warning! Welcome to the blizz!  Now up to 12” in the point. Yowza! 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z EC is very progressive and not overly strong.  

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So I may get more snow around Christmas?  NWS Hastings was hinting at this in their morning disco. Let’s see how it plays out for our region. 
 

NWS Hastings:  It seems plausible that if the trough were to slow down, there could be a westward shift of the storm system and a potentially more significant impact locally, which would obviously be a concern for pre-holiday travel. As it stands now, ensemble guidance suggests this is a low probability, with most members dry or only lgt pcpn. Nonetheless, something to keep an eye on over coming days.

 

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs stays firm 

actually cuts harder W and quicker to the N -- NW IA does better. Still a good hit for MSP>

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs stays firm 

with what?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro now showing a classic anafront situation here.  That would be amazing.  Not something we see too frequently around here.

 

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Today's GEM says hi

 

20201219 12z GEM h114 Surf.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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So Euro shows southern stream, GFS shows a hard cutter with a big time cold front with no blocking?  hmmm.. One is completely off.  Looks like Euro phases and GFS says northern LP stays dominate.  Good test for both models.  

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16 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

So Euro shows southern stream, GFS shows a hard cutter with a big time cold front with no blocking?  hmmm.. One is completely off.  Looks like Euro phases and GFS says northern LP stays dominate.  Good test for both models.  

GFS shows big time blocking- almost retrogrades the system. It does the 2nd system on the E Coast.  It just doesn't phase it further S like some others say. The Blocking is their on ALL MODELS- trust me. How guidance envelops the blocking is the key in this system as it will have plenty of cold air - you don't get anafront snows very often in this neck of the woods with a blocking and or/ -AO

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Last two runs of the UK have nothing

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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OAX has an update on there discussion.

 

Becoming increasingly concerned that Wednesday could become an impactful winter weather day for the region. Models continue to support a chance for measurable snow. If the snow accurs, combined with what could be northwest winds 25 to 45 mph with higher gusts possible, areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility could result.

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most lake affect snows for the Arrowhead of MN are anafront - unreal when they happen. Seen true 3-4" hour amounts. Several 2-3' events witnessed. But the king is Finland , ( Isabella Station) MN with near 60"  I believe in late Halloween Storm 1991. Arrowhead MN may not get consistent Lake snows, but when that E- ESW wind blows, watch out for that water hardly gets worked over.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX sounds like they are siding with the GFS:

Wednesday into Christmas Eve...Strong PV anomaly and sharp cold
front punches across the state during the day Wednesday providing
potent CAA by the afternoon hours. Impressive tropopause fold
Wednesday evening as well. The forecast soundings quickly saturate
in the dendritic layer past 18z Wednesday. GFS is more bullish
with the QPF and wind, but the latest ECMWF is beginning to come
around closer to the GFS solution wrt to the surface low track
across MN into the Great Lakes. Ensemble members continue to trend
up with the light QPF on Wednesday afternoon and evening and with
the strong CAA, confident the primary precipitation type will be
snow. If it does rain, it`ll be short-lived. Have non-diurnal
temperature trend going for Wednesday.
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00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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06Z GFS is a complete bust for those not in Chicago or MI. Michigan ( or NW MN very nice)  peeps do pretty well if 1-2" is in your cards. outside the LE.  I would take it.

06 Icon is way different.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS actually gives me 6". I would be out of town for this, but it'd be nice to return home to a white ground.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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Might get about 48 hours notice on this one. Especially if the south end goes. Lol. That's crazy.

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LOT leaning towards the Euro

the ECMWF and CMC global have
favored the southern energy rounding the trough to help with a
modestly deepening surface low in the frontal trough much closer
to our latitude. This sort of setup would slow down the cold air
mass by several hours, but more importantly allow for the
blossoming of cold sector precip on the 700 mb trough axis.

With overall a bit better operational and ensemble support for
this idea, including roughly half of ECMWF ensemble members and an
uptick in support from the GEFS, have similarly to previous shift
trended the grids in favor of this. Should subsequent trends
continue down this general path, at least some snow accumulation
would be possible later Wednesday night into Thursday morning in
the deformation axis.
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5 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...as Bud said, not the biggest storm but it would deliver a White Christmas and transform the landscape into white gold for some of us.  If we can somehow manage to get a few inches of snow and enough to cover the grass tips I'd be happy.  The cold isn't as extreme as the models were showing in previous days but should be cold enough to keep the snow OTG for a few days.

 

00z EPS members are slowly shifting the west and trying to develop that southern wave as does the Euro control somewhat.  I've seen dramatic changes inside 5 days in the models so lets sit back and see what changes likely will occur.  This is a very complicated system and I don't think the models will handle the southern energy until its onshore.

 

 

 

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@jaster220 @Stacsh why is the euro so hell bent on killing our vibes loool

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