Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Very obvious this will be another carrot for us. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Initial trough not digging as well on D6 compared to 12z. Base of ridge just a notch further east. The GOA ridge is stronger though. This could just be a timing issue. Need to see the rest of the run play out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Weenie city. Good grief. 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ridge is a bit too far east. Could be a trend but also might not be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like all systems are go on the day 8 ECMWF. The big three models have come into almost perfect agreement, although the ECMWF may be a tad faster with the good stuff. Right now the best guess seems to be an initial shot of cool continental air around day 5 or 6 and the good stuff arriving around day 9 or so. How bout that 12z run today on the GFS! 498 thickness over SEA! 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: Ridge is a bit too far east. Could be a trend but also might not be. It's going to dig back. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Yeah...it looks like the GEM and ECMWF are a day faster with the arrival of cold air than the GFS. Other than that reasonably similar. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Here it comes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Talk about a really nice block! A tad more tilt or a few degrees west and that will bring snow. Nice solid run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Need to see timing move ahead tomorrow... until this is inside Day 7 it's just REALLY nice eye candy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Acer said: Another view of the 384 snow map. I would.....cry. That blue line (1-2 inches) literally goes over to my house from Tacoma. Good thing that is in fantasy land! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 EURO saved the night. Well the GEM wasn't awful by any means. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 Yuge potential with this event. I'm amazed how many runs of various models and various ensemble members have shown extraordinary cold with this. The analogs have been very telling also. Many from the 1950s, 1962, and 1989. Amazingly analogs have poped up from the good parts of Jan 1954, late Feb 1955, Feb 1956, and Jan 1957. Old school stuff. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Need to see timing move ahead tomorrow... until this is inside Day 7 it's just REALLY nice eye candy. With the big three all showing the same thing confidence has to be above average. I would like to see another great EPS tonight also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro does eventually get there which is a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: EURO saved the night. Well the GEM wasn't awful by any means. The GFS was really good too. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Somewhat impressively since the pattern change on the 15th I have had every high below 50 (48 or below) and every low below 40 IMBY. That's a big deal by recent late January standards. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 , can't we get something in the believable range for crying out loud. Things are being delayed again as usual. No way to sugarcoat that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: , can't we get something in the believable range for crying out loud. Things are being delayed again as usual. No way to sugarcoat that. From what I’m seeing, the fun starts after the 10th. If that keeps getting delayed, then I’ll give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Really solid EPS tonight. Actually a little better / sharper than the 12z. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 How about a little more from exactly right now 2yrs ago! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Speaking of the 00z EPS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: From what I’m seeing, the fun starts after the 10th. If that keeps getting delayed, then I’ll give up. The models are really consolidating now. I would think everyone should know the drill on this by now. Very high chance a decent cold wave happens. I would put the chances of an exceptional cold wave (highs well below freezing) at 30% to 40% right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 One thing I really like the EPS is it keeps the pattern very amplified for a sustained period. Kind of reminds me of 2019. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient. Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event. The EPS was much more aggressive in February 2019. I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Up to 9.27” on the month as of midnight. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The EPS reminds me of January 2020... leading up to that event it was persistently showing the coldest anomalies in BC and never in WA and that is basically the way it turned out with a sharp north/south gradient. Places north of Everett did very well but from Seattle southward is was almost a non-event. The EPS was much more aggressive in February 2019. I am sure it can still end up like either of those scenarios... but right now this feels more like last January in the models. Yeah we will see nothings for certain that’s for sure. Could work out still. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Chilly rain out there! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anybody else over an inch below normal rainfall for Jan? 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 There is no consolidation in the models that point to yummy goodies, at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Anybody else over an inch below normal rainfall for Jan? Almost up to 19.5" MTD here. 20" could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 EPS continues to be profoundly better than the GEFS, GEPS. Looks very promising, but not believable until the ridge merger is at around Day 2 and pattern sets up at Day 3-4. C'MON!!!! 6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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