Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 S on CMC and drier in IA-- but understandable compared to the ridiculous 12Z 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: You saying that's the reason for lower amounts on the non-Euro models? No- I just think the system is wrapping in warmer air aloft. What makes sense if TSSN goes off 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lost track. When is everything within the normal ROAB networks again? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: No- I just think the system is wrapping in warmer air aloft. GFS is notoriously accurate at doing that too. To me, that would mean less than ideal ratios and/or IP potential on the increase. I know I'm in the minority here, but gimme 3" of concrete vs 5" of powder-puff stuff. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z Canadian at 96 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Overall trend is a touch south and perhaps half a hair drier relative to 12z. Though in the QPF department, it's not enough that I'd consider it a trend. A bit south definitely is though. Hoping it comes back north tomorrow for selfish reasons. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Jim Flowers put out another update a bit ago after the 0Z Canadian came out. Said he’s going with 9-10” in Omaha and feels everything is pretty locked in at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Jim Flowers put out another update a bit ago after the 0Z Canadian came out. Said he’s going with 9-10” in Omaha and feels everything is pretty locked in at this point. I’m feeling pretty good about 8”+ at KLNK. Double digits may be a steeper climb, but this is a good a chance as any. Trying not to get too excited, but a big a dog is nearly a lock at this point! 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said: I’m feeling pretty good about 8”+ at KLNK. Double digits may be a steeper climb, but this is a good a chance as any. Trying not to get too excited, but a big a dog is nearly a lock at this point! How often have you had double-digits btw? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: How often have you had double-digits btw? Daily records only go back to 1948 unfortunately, only 5 times 1 day snowfall, but 17 times 2 day. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 0z Canadian at 96 hours Looks like that includes the mid week system as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said: Daily records only go back to 1948 unfortunately, only 5 times 1 day snowfall, but 17 times 2 day. 1 every 4.2 years. Better than I'd think listening to how moisture starved it seems to be out in that region. Hope you S NE guys get one this time. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 ukie holding serve- maybe tick N-- actually more than a tick in E.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Looks like that includes the mid week system as well Yes. It really never quits snowing here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ukie through 102 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ok with the euro the only major model left and with it being as consistent as it has been; I would be shocked if the watch and or eventual warning doesn’t get nudged north. Gonna be an interesting afd in the morning for the weather offices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wave 1 seems to be a bit of a dud here in Cedar Rapids. The heaviest actually appears to be moving south of CR. U of Iowa webcam shows it snowing pretty good in Iowa City and radar shows some yellow spots. It's not even snowing here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Wave 1 seems to be a bit of a dud here in Cedar Rapids. The heaviest actually appears to be moving south of CR. U of Iowa webcam shows it snowing pretty good in Iowa City and radar shows some yellow spots. It's not even snowing here. Yup. IC should do well relatively speaking, but CR should top out with about an inch. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s snowing pretty good down here. I’m not stepping outside to measure but I don’t think it’s over an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 NWS blend of models 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro is south and weaker. CR/IC playing with the northern edge again. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, bud2380 said: It’s snowing pretty good down here. I’m not stepping outside to measure but I don’t think it’s over an inch. Same here. Heard a bit of sleet or something on the windows a bit ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yea relative to the past several runs, the 00z euro is awful for E IA. Nebraska still does well and looks locked in for a historic event at this point. E IA is trending towards a more garden variety(7-10”) big event with every run. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 The Euro looks just as good as the 12z run at 500 mb, but just jumps south at the surface. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 It's finally snowing decently here tonight. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z Euro through 90 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Well at least Lincoln still gets 9-10" on the Euro even after another jump south lol Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Bummer shift on the Euro run for Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I measured 1.5” just now and I was forecast to get less than an inch. What I hear on the windows actually is grauple which will cut a bit into totals. Finally had our family gathering today that we normally have on Christmas so I’m trying to get caught up on this thread. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Snowman said: Bummer shift on the Euro run for Omaha Honestly I think if you're along or just 20-30 miles north of I-80 in NE/IA, you're fine. With the tight gradient, subtle random shifts make a huge difference. 00z Euro is still 6-8" 10:1 for Omaha. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 I have to retract my wave 1 dud post. It's dumping pretty good now and I have over an inch. 3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 00z EPS basically the same. 7-9" mean Omaha/Lincoln. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro Kuchera- (my worries are valid- if this continues and whose to say they won't- mby it's goes to 3-4" from 11".) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Posted in the wrong thread lol but I think the 80 corridor is in for a surprise with this system. Jim has been posting like crazy and alot of interesting turns. My gut is feeling 6-8 but I'm not going to be surprised if we can push 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 43 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I have to retract my wave 1 dud post. It's dumping pretty good now and I have over an inch. Yea CR looks to pick up about 2" from this after all. 1.5” measured now and still coming down at a moderate clip. With 2ish hours of snow left, 2” will be easy. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 06z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 ^^ was going to post- here is the 10:1 which is probably more like it and that HRRR is usually over done in long range-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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