GDR Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 All time december record minimum set in Hastings this morning. If you use the record years as analogs, 1 out of the 3 years went on to produce above average snow for the season. 1939 went on to produce 40" of snow for Lincoln.  HASTINGS TIES ALL TIME RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THEMONTH OF DECEMBER WHILE SHATTERING 93 YEAR OLD DAILY RECORD WARMMINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 13TH...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 13TH AT THE HASTINGS MUNICIPALAIRPORT ONLY DROPPED TO 47 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUSRECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 36 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1921...93YEARS AGO. IN ADDITION...THIS RECORD IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUMTEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER. A WARMMINIMUM OF 47 DEGREES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WAS ALSO RECORDED ONDECEMBER 2 OF 1962 AND DECEMBER 10 OF 1939.TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT HASTINGS ARE BASED ON NWS COOPERATIVEOBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF 1907 AND JUNE1996...WITH RECORDS SINCE JULY 1996 FROM THE AUTOMATED SENSOR ATHASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble...Bingo.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 I think as far as the next 2 weeks go, first the northern Plains and Great Plains see the pattern change back to wintry weather and then the rest of the Midwest the week of the 21st. Nice seeing the models jumping on a stormy period the last 10 days of the month. Those GEFS 500 mb maps have the look of awfully cold after Christmas! Polar air would sweep down the continent into the region. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z Euro Control... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Eps control similar to euro. Southern solution. Kentucky and Tennessee May see a white christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Crazy how almost every model showing this storm on or around Xmas eve. Eps control 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z control and ensembles look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th_snow Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 The Christmas storm might be legit. Every ensemble mean (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) Â show something going to the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 i was looking at accuweather fourms and they have 2 seperate threads on the same storm one for the plains,midwest,greatlakes and ohio valley and the other for the mid atlantic and newengland very stupid to even to make these threads because you don't even know what is going to happen.Since the AccuWeather Forums have so many members, multiple threads for multiple regions for multiple storms are a necessity. What would be stupid is if there was a single storm thread, combining the East Coasters with the OV/GL posters. Then it's just pure mayhem & confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble...Bingo....Interesting that there's such a deep negative anomaly in the Midwest, despite suppressed West Coast ridging & an iffy -EPO look. Not sure how well this particular graphic will verify, as far as predicting the general pattern goes. Guess we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Going on record, going to be another brown Christmas in Omaha. Would be happy if I was wrong.I would be happy if you were wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_asnow_us_33.pngaround 6 inches forcentral il. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Interesting that there's such a deep negative anomaly in the Midwest, despite suppressed West Coast ridging & an iffy -EPO look. Not sure how well this particular graphic will verify, as far as predicting the general pattern goes. Guess we'll have to see.GFS/GFS Par/Euro show the PNA deeply negative during this period so a SE ridge will be present.  At this time, the ridge out west actually will begin to build so this storm in essence develops on the heals of this massive hemispheric pattern change over our continent.  This is certainly a storm to monitor and one that could really spell trouble for travelers in the mid section of the nation.  All the models are showing a powerful storm cutting up from the deep south with the GOM wide open.  If this storm phases with the polar jet in harmony, this should become a doozy wherever it forms.Notice the big "disconnect" with the polar jet crashing down out of Canada.  I remember the map you showed of the GHD Blizzard.  I'm not trying to jump the gun, but watch out, this can become spectacular. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 18z GFS...still showing it, but weaker...GFS wants to keep the HP farther to the east than the GGEM/EURO which allows it to cut up northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 GFS/GFS Par/Euro show the PNA deeply negative during this period so a SE ridge will be present.  At this time, the ridge out west actually will begin to build so this storm in essence develops on the heals of this massive hemispheric pattern change over our continent.  This is certainly a storm to monitor and one that could really spell trouble for travelers in the mid section of the nation.  All the models are showing a powerful storm cutting up from the deep south with the GOM wide open.  If this storm phases with the polar jet in harmony, this should become a doozy wherever it forms.Notice the big "disconnect" with the polar jet crashing down out of Canada.  I remember the map you showed of the GHD Blizzard.  I'm not trying to jump the gun, but watch out, this can become spectacular.another thing to watch out this in case this could go negative tilt to form a second low to make it an occulded front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Check out what the CFSv2 is showing down the road. Â It has the cold centered in the central CONUS with pronounced ridging along the east coast. Â This would create an active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes. Â Doesn't this look familiar??? Â Sure does...just look back what happened in November. Â The LRC is def cycling through the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 the latest update from tropical tidbits website has the 27th storm heading to the eastren seaboard.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 and according to esrl website showing the pna negative and both epo/wpo going negative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 The CFSv2 images are pretty interesting to say the least, you can see where baroclinic zone would be located and with a dominant SE ridge, the storm track could become quite active with multiple storms for a several week period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th! Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon.  All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall synoptic pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon. Maybe that's why he used the word COULD. All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall system pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Member on accuweather forums is saying chicago could get bombed on the 27th!witch member said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I am still holding out hope for the 20th/21st event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 image.jpg Lovin' the hole right over Omaha, figures!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014  Is he looking into a crystal ball? There is no way to believe or even know something like that 13 days away. C'mon. Maybe that's why he used the word COULD. All you can say is some models are showing the chances for some big systems given the overall system pattern that will possibly come to fruition over the coming weeks looking at the ensembles.  Yeah and it COULD snow 2 feet of snow on Christmas. Just because someone says it could doesn't make it okay. There is a difference between crying wolf for one specific day because one models says so and looking at the overall pattern and saying the threat will be heightened for significant cyclogenesis during a several week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Welcome to the forum Thundersnow12. I have read many of your posts on the other sites and always look forward to reading them as they are very informative. You couldn't have picked a better time to join as we are heading into an interesting and stormy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 witch member said that? the 48weatherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 the 48weathermansorry about that that is me because i am a member on accuweather fourms too oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 @ timtheweatherman & GDRÂ found Larry & Mo, where's Curly??? 2 Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)Â Â Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Â Â Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Â Dec: 7.5Â Jan: 31.7 Feb:Â 6.0 Mar: 4.3Â Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2"Â (Harrison):Â 2023-24 = 53.1"Â Avg = 45.0"Â (KDTW):Â 2022-23 = 33.5"Â Â 2021-22 = 35.6"Â Â Â Â Avg = 49.7"Â (KRMY):Â 2020-21 = 36.2"Â Â 2019-20 = 48.0"Â Â 2018-19 =Â 56.1"Â Â 2017-18 =Â 68.3"Â Â Â 2016-17 =Â 52"Â Â Â 2015-16 =Â 57.4"Â Â Â 2014-15 =Â 55.3"Â Â Â 2013-14 =Â 100.6"Â (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Â Â 2012-13 =Â 47.2"Â Â Â 2011-12 =Â 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 @ timtheweatherman & GDRÂ found Larry & Mo, where's Curly???I laughed way too hard at that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 CFSv2 maps look great that Tom posted.  Current weather is foggy. Took a ride today into Kenosha County and snapped a few pictures of Oak trees in the fog. Doesn't look like mid-December!  1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 CFSv2 maps look great that Tom posted.  Current weather is foggy. Took a ride today into Kenosha County and snapped a few pictures of Oak trees in the fog. Doesn't look like mid-December! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-99692200-1418614163.jpg http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-7389-0-11797300-1418614149.jpgnice pics geos and i agree that those maps tom has posted looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Gfs looks further north for the Friday system thru 108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 It's coming north. 1009 OK/TX/AR area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 1010.4 in N. LA at HR 123. Snow is farther north than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like the low is going to cut close to Memphis on this run. Some snow making it to US 20 on this run. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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