December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Snow]

I must be dumb or cant read but i though green meant 30 o 35?

 

Your not dumb, nobody is. The speeds are in knots. So 30 to 35 knots equal approximately 34.6 mph to 40.3 mph.

[bainbridgekid]

I must be dumb or cant read but i though green meant 30 o 35?

Yeah it's kind of hard to read. That map shows general gusts to about 40-45 mph over Inland Seattle and 55-60 mph for the beaches. The map is in knots so the winds are a bit stronger than you'd think.

 

It's really important to not take those wind maps at face value though. Much like the snowfall maps they usually seem to overestimate the difference in winds over small distances.

 

I still think SEA will gust to around 50 mph with the more exposed spots (Alkai and the floating bridges) getting close to 60.

 

That's a pretty good track:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.31.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro is about 5 mb stronger than the GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121100/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_2.png

 

Shows 50 knot wind gusts for PDX:

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Cyclogenesis has begun.  Cloud tops are getting a lot colder.

 

 

 

[Snow]

00z Euro is about 5 mb stronger than the GFS.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121100/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_nwus_2.png

 

Shows 50 knot wind gusts for PDX:

 

 

Looks nice!

[epiceast]

Finally there is Zonal flow on a Euro run.

[bainbridgekid]

Hasn't been posted but the Canadian has a near perfect track for maximum winds in Seattle.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121100/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_5.png

[seattleweatherguy]

if that were to happen would it be 60 plus?

Hasn't been posted but the Canadian has a near perfect track for maximum winds in Seattle.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121100/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_5.png

[bainbridgekid]

if that were to happen would it be 60 plus?

The Canadian's track would probably bring gusts 55-60 for SEA.

 

GFS and Euro bring the low to the NW tip of the Olympic Penninsula which would mean 45-50 mph or so.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Its not the amount of rain... its the number of dry days.   

 

2014-15 (measured from Nov-Mar) has already had 20 days without rain.   There was 13 dry days here TOTAL from 10/31/58 - 4/8/59.   Can't undo that lead.    I will have doubled the dry days from that winter by next week possibly.

 

And another 2-3 dry days coming up here.     This winter is more blocky and splitty already.    It just never stopped raining in 1958-59.   I had a 13 consecutive day dry spell already since November 1st.    

No wonder Los Angeles received a whopping .06" of rain from October to December of 1958 and only 5.59" for the entire season! All the rain fell in the PNW. That turned out to be a very dry winter for L.A. with the wettest month being in February.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just noticed Boeing Field hit 69 today. Jesus.

It was actually cooler today in parts of San Diego, where Lindbergh Field had a high of 67.

[snow_wizard]

I had an incredible 65-50 temp spread today. The warmest I have ever recorded in either Dec or Jan. Hard to imagine we won't see the flip side at some point.

[snow_wizard]

SEA actually hit 46 mph today.

Today was one of those freak events that are almost impossible to predict. Probably some low level jet action. At this point the Thursday evening storm has huge bust potential. The GFS and ECMWF show the storm weakening dramatically between Astoria and Neah Bay. I noticed the Seattle NWS discussion tonight really toned it down.

[Skagit Weather]

Today was one of those freak events that are almost impossible to predict. Probably some low level jet action. At this point the Thursday evening storm has huge bust potential. The GFS and ECMWF show the storm weakening dramatically between Astoria and Neah Bay. I noticed the Seattle NWS discussion tonight really toned it down.

 

I think this is based more on the quality of the writer and not the NWS's thoughts on the storm. If you look at the last four or five 9pm discussions from the last couple of days it is like they challenge themselves to write the briefest, least interesting summary and they always use the long term from the previous discussion. I agree the models have trended less favorable and there is the chance for a bust, but I am not sure the poor quality of the discussion is related to it.

[Snow]

Current satellite loop as of Thursday 3am. Our Sou'Wester has formed and is intensifying at the moment. This Sou'Wester is going to be one for the ages. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ir4km_enhanced/201412111100.gif

[Tyler Mode]

Have had mainly light NE winds until just a few minutes ago. Now wind gusting to 25 mph, pressure 29.17"

[Abbotsford_wx]

Current satellite loop as of Thursday 3am. Our Sou'Wester has formed and is intensifying at the moment. This Sou'Wester is going to be one for the ages. 

 

 

 

Bold prediction...

 

Doesn't look like much for up here at any rate.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb.

 

 

MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.17.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb.

 

 

MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50.

 

Gusts to 50 in the most favorable spots is probably a good call. It's pretty hard to ignore how fast the models weaken the low once it reaches the latitude of Astoria, so I would be surprised if it's anything more.

[Alex_Snakes]

Looks pretty healthy. 4AM surface analysis has it at 976mb.

 

 

MM5-NAM shows a good track. I still think SEA will gust to about 50.

 

 

 

Watching the sat loop, it looks like it has already curved north. Wonder if it s going to stay off the coast farther than models show.

[FroYoBro]

I'm thinking pdx will get at least one gust between 55-60 mph. Would be an interesting afternoon if that came true. 

 

Or maybe I just like windstorms and am wishcasting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It seems that in my lifetime at least the vast majority of potential wind events either fail or disappoint. 1995, 2002 in the south valley, and 2006 are notable exceptions....

[snow_wizard]

It seems that in my lifetime at least the vast majority of potential wind events either fail or disappoint. 1995, 2002 in the south valley, and 2006 are notable exceptions....

Very often the worst ones come as a bit of a surprise. Most that are called two days ahead of time bust. Very much like snow in a lot of ways. A couple of real stand outs up here were Nov 1991 and Jan 1993. Both were quite well forecast. Pretty ironic considering how crude the models were back then compared to now. Dec 2006 was certainly good one also.

 

As for this event...the NWS needs to back away from the widespread 60mph gusts in the Seattle area. The track is wrong and the low is weakening at 4mb every three hours as it moves up the coast. By the time it's to Neah Bay the gradients are quite pedestrian.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Watching the sat loop, it looks like it has already curved north. Wonder if it s going to stay off the coast farther than models show.

Most of the time this is the outcome. They curve north. A good windstorm is just as hard to pull off as snow around here lately.

[HighlandExperience]

Most of the time this is the outcome. They curve north. A good windstorm is just as hard to pull off as snow around here lately.

 

Sadly split flow, fake cold, and warm rain seem normal these days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know people's enthusiasm for an "event" is fading when all the people who were posting about it pretty much stop posting about it before it is even due to occur.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love how Mark Nelsen has to be the father to everyone on the Fox 12 blog comments section....

 

"There is actually one more run of models tomorrow morning, so I’ll post once more around 10am.  As of 11:30pm I’ve turned off comments for the night.  I’ll turn them back on tomorrow morning after I post again.  Good time to go to bed anyway!"

[Front Ranger]

The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here.

 

At least the Euro shows a couple decent shots of snow for the mountains next week.

[chinook]

At least the Euro shows a couple decent shots of snow for the mountains next week.

 

I took a little time yesterday to visit the Oregon ski resorts...viewing conditions and webcams.  They would be on board. 

[seattleweatherguy]

AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD IT WILL IMPACT WRN OREGON WITH HIGH WINDS AND 
EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD JUST OFF THE S WA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
STRONGEST WIND WILL BE TO THE S OF THE LOW SO THE EVENING TIMING FOR 
ONSET OF WINDS ACROSS SW WA LOOKS GOOD. HIGH WINDS ON THE COAST 
APPEAR TO BE A GIVEN WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER. A 
WARNING WAS ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE 
WRF-GFS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL NOW ONLY GRADUALLY FILL THE 
LOW TO AROUND 978-980 MB AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR TATOOSH BY 06Z TONIGHT 
(10PM). THE CENTRAL PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH AND ALSO 
COMBINED WITH A MESO LOW ON THE NE SIDE OF THE OLYMPICS TO GIVE A 
PERIOD OF BORDERLINE HIGH WINDS TO THE INTERIOR INCLUDING PUGET 
SOUND. MOST LIKELY THE HIGH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS GUSTS TO ABOUT 60 OR 
65 MPH BASED ON THE 925 MB FLOW PEAKING AROUND 50-55 KT WHICH MAY 
SURFACE AT TIMES GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE SATURATED 
SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POWER 
OUTAGES.

[seattleweatherguy]

some how i do not buy that. the new updated warning states that we central sound will start gettings winds around 6pm

[Phil]

The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January..

 

A Younger Dryas encore? Lol

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpg

[seattleweatherguy]

"MOST LIKELY THE HIGH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS GUSTS TO ABOUT 60 OR 

65 MPH BASED ON THE 925 MB FLOW PEAKING AROUND 50-55 KT WHICH MAY 
SURFACE AT TIMES GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE SATURATED 
SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH POWER 
OUTAGES."

 

I personally see 40 to 45 gusts in Seattle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpg

Gonna call bs

[seattleweatherguy]

The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/3xaUMF/800.jpg

That is impossible that virtually means the whole western hemisphere is colder than normal! where did el nino go?

[luvssnow_spokane]

The next two weeks look about as mild and dull as it gets around here.

Just as predicted... Bummer.

[Snow]

Good morning everybody, I just woke up. I slept around 5am this morning. I just looked at the new 12z WRF-GFS 4km and it's still game on for a major windstorm in the Willamette Valley. Take a look at what the WRF shows at 2pm this afternoon. Very strong wind gust of up to 65 knots or 75 mph are going to occur in most of the Willamette Valley, this should spread later into the PDX metro area. Right now is the "calm before the storm", things should start picking up soon.

 

 

http://oi62.tinypic.com/keur1x.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummmm....What about this CFSv2?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141211.201501.gif

[Phil]

That is impossible that virtually means the whole western hemisphere is colder than normal! where did el nino go?

Lol. It's called a feedback loop, and it's almost certainly an error. It has happened in the geologic past, though.