December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Dan the Weatherman]

HR 192 fake colddddddddddd

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

That is one snoozer of a weather pattern with that full latitude western ridge! I want to see a more active weather pattern that brings rain and mountain snow to the entire West Coast to help build the snowpack!

[Skagit Weather]

Down to 33F here now.  The precip changed to light snow just as the last batch of moisture moved through, of course.  Maybe some instability will form over the strait, along the arctic front later tonight, but I'm not holding my breath. 

 

Maybe I am being naïve, but I am not writing off a second brush with cold/snow before the middle of January.

 

In my view it is ridiculous to write off the next few weeks and especially the rest of the winter, but it is depressing the further we go into the winter without decent (or any) snow. Luckily, we have months left to get snow and who knows, since we can't get snow when the pattern looks favorable, maybe we need an extremely unfavorable pattern (like the dreaded pattern forecast for the end of January) to be surprised.

[Parksvillewx]

Let's see how bad the WRF sh**s the bed on this.

 

If it were to verify I'd be a happy camper though.

 

[Front Ranger]

HR 96 ... there's that same stupid shortwave cutting through the block decimating it pinching the top off into the high Arctic and also stopping the cold air progression in Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

 

 

I mentioned a few days ago when the models first started showing that cutoff low in CA/AZ I didn't think that was a good sign. It seems hard for a deep trough to drop down into the West while a cutoff low is there. Just something I've noticed watching pattern progressions over the years.

[MossMan]

Let's see how bad the WRF sh**s the bed on this.

 

If it were to verify I'd be a happy camper though.

 

wa_snow24.24.0000.gif

Where do you live?

[ShawniganLake]

Let's see how bad the WRF sh**s the bed on this.

 

If it were to verify I'd be a happy camper though.

 

wa_snow24.24.0000.gif

Looks pretty doubtful, that model shows things really drying up about now, basically nothing falling after midnight.

 

The sticking snow level dropped down to about 500ft around here earlier tonight.  Picked up about 0.2" of rain and snow melt, so we were only a degree or 2 away from a couple inches of snow or so.  Currently looks like its snowing pretty good on the Lake Cowichan HYW.

[Guest Winterdog]

Where do you live?

Probably directly under that purple blob of heavy snow on the east side of Vancouver Island.

[ShawniganLake]

Probably directly under that purple blob of heavy snow on the east side of Vancouver Island.

He would be really close to that, I think he said he is a little closer to the ocean than where the heaviest accumulation is depicted. 

[MossMan]

Probably directly under that purple blob of heavy snow on the east side of Vancouver Island.

Gotcha, thanks! Good luck to him tonight.

[ShawniganLake]

KNOCK...................................KNOCK..............................................KNOCK

 

Phil................................Buddy.................................You there?.................................Anything?

[luvssnow_spokane]

KNOCK...................................KNOCK..............................................KNOCK

 

Phil................................Buddy.................................You there?.................................Anything?

Phil has left the board. Said he was not coming back. We are all alone now. I am scared! Mom!?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am calling it for my location before I go to bed. I will be getting zero snow out of this event. Night all!

[ShawniganLake]

Phil has left the board. Said he was not coming back. We are all alone now. I am scared! Mom!?

Seriously?  Maybe I missed something earlier, or you're being sarcastic.  Either way, I quite like/d Phil

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seriously? Maybe I missed something earlier, or you're being sarcastic. Either way, I quite like/d Phil

I am being serious with a bit of humor. He blew up the other night and asked his account to be deleted which iFred said he would not do. But he said he had enough of this place and said he would not be back. He was fed up with being criticized and attached. I hope he comes back but who knows.

[BLI snowman]

KNOCK...................................KNOCK..............................................KNOCK

 

Phil................................Buddy.................................You there?.................................Anything?

 

December 2008's gonna go down in flames.

[BLI snowman]

I am being serious with a bit of humor. He blew up the other night and asked his account to be deleted which iFred said he would not do. But he said he had enough of this place and said he would not be back. He was fed up with being criticized and attached. I hope he comes back but who knows.

 

You missed the part where he posted about 50 times after that.

[bainbridgekid]

December 2008's gonna go down in flames.

It'll just suffocate under the weight of all the snow.

[ShawniganLake]

December 2008's gonna go down in flames.

Yea, that was never gonna happen.  Still kinda like the guy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dp down to 22 at BLI now. NE winds gusting to 29. Looks like the arctic front is just about to go through Spokane on the other side of the Cascades...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp down to 35 at my place. If there is moisture around in 6-7 hours it will probably be snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
6z NAM running now...
Next up....
6z GFS 1 hour 5 minutes
--------------------------------
12z NAM 5 hours 25 minutes
12z GFS 7 hours 5 minutes
12z GEM 8 hours 25 minutes
12z ECMWF 9 hours 45 minutes
Not expecting anything good from any runs, but I suppose you never know.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM HR 84 - Well, the pattern change showing up on models inside day 5 is now even showing up on the NAM. Here we see the same shortwave as the ECMWF/Parallel impinging upon digging into the block flattening it down. It even appears to be a bit further south as well. If our ridge could merge with the Aleutian block behind this feature then we may have something as the entire ridge/block would retrograde. If you remember a few days ago models were showing that scenario. NAM seems to moving timing ahead compared to other models. No good.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_npac_084_500_vort_ht_l.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

6z Op is different. HR 90. Remember what I just mentioned with my 6z NAM analysis? well this is what it looks like. Ridge pops up behind shortwave.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_z500a_namer_16.png

[richard mann]

You missed the part where he posted about 50 times after that.

 

100/0 .. it was B.S..

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 102 If the cut-off low retrogrades this has a slight chance to be good....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_z500a_namer_18.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 84 Parallel may be following similar to Op

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122906/gfsp_z500a_namer_15.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I almost got the slightest bit of hope there...

[Timmy]

I just took the dog out, looks like a light/wet dusting of snow

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156-174 much closer to getting another cold shot. Some of it moves back into the Columbia Basin with strong east winds

[Timmy]

Also down to 32

[Gradient Keeper]

I just am not calling our chances at a second blast dead yet. 500mb progression on both 6z Op/Parallel are quite a bit different from previous runs. It would only take slight differences with handling of the cut-off low and energy moving near the top of the block for us to see improved runs. Of course it's unlikely, but let's just see what the model camps show the next 2-3 runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

If you like inversions/cold pool induced prolonged east wind, perhaps very strong(Wind Advisory/Warning?) this run is for you...Cold air lingers over east side/Columbia Basin for a long time on this run.. Perhaps for 8-10 days....

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156-174 much closer to getting another cold shot. Some of it moves back into the Columbia Basin with strong east winds

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_mslp_wind_nwus_30.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 252 another shot of cold air into eastern Washington

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_T850_nwus_38.png

[Gradient Keeper]

And another shot end of the run.... This is just going to keep the cold air pretty deep over the Columbia Basin, especially 2500' to surface for 2 weeks perhaps

[Gradient Keeper]

I just took the dog out, looks like a light/wet dusting of snow

Hey better than nothing

 

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, I'm still learning with models, but the low near AZ that DJ mentioned earlier seems to be moving more east into the US allowing the shortwave coming down through BC to continue a bit further on 6z GFS regular?

 

See what the next few frames bring.

 

EDIT: Nevermind. More or less slides off east. Ridge stays put. Too much energy on W side of ridge pushing everything east.

Yep, but there were improvements with this run....

 

Also down to 32

Icing up yet?

[Phil]

KNOCK...................................KNOCK..............................................KNOCK

 

Phil................................Buddy.................................You there?.................................Anything?

I'm not writing it off yet, but I'd like to see better wave synchronization over the NPAC. That's key here..potential is huge, probably the greatest since 2008. Question is, how much of that is actually realized?

[Phil]

I am being serious with a bit of humor. He blew up the other night and asked his account to be deleted which iFred said he would not do. But he said he had enough of this place and said he would not be back. He was fed up with being criticized and attached. I hope he comes back but who knows.

I was upset because words were being put in my mouth, perhaps intentionally. I don't mind being criticized..just need to point that out.

[Alex_Snakes]

How is everyone this morning?

The wind blowing from the NE is brisk.