Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 552
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Snow mounds are growing!!!

I finished with 5.8".  I really wanted to be able to mark down another 6-incher. There was a lot of drifting toward the end and all the blowing snow collected on the driveways and sidewalks.  My

Posted Images

DMX talking 1"+ hourly rates and blizzard to near blizzard conditions.

Attention overall is on later this week into this weekend as a
period of high impact and weather headline worthy events unfold.
On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will be moving into the
Pacific Northwest and quickly make its way into the Rockies by
Thursday morning and to Iowa by Thursday night. Surface low
pressure will develop over the central Plains on Thursday and pass
near or over southeast Iowa late in the day with an attendant
strong cold front passing through the state on Thursday as well.
Ahead of this front, there will be a surge of low level thermal
lift from Missouri into Illinois clipping eastern Iowa with QG
convergence along this front. Temperatures will be warm enough
ahead of the front for much of the precipitation to initially be
rain. However, as the cold front plows through the state, the
temperature profile will turn colder in the low levels with rain
changing to snow. Regarding the flash freeze potential, it will
come down to when does the drop occur and how much of a drop.
During the heart of the day with a slower drop will be less of a
concern than a quick and sharp drop around sunrise and rush hour.

As the rain turns to snow, the ice introduction layer and dendritic
growth zone with be saturated and there will be moderate lift in
this zone to promote a short period of high snow rates. This
evening`s 3z SREF run is already showing some low probabilities of
1"/hr rates. The lift wanes through the afternoon as strong
subsidence moves across the state. However, forecast soundings show
low level instability, which could promote snow showery bursts into
the early evening hours. While snow amounts will not be profound
given recent winter storms, the impacts will be greatly enhanced by
the developing strong winds gusting over 40 mph with the potential
for near blizzard conditions. The winds would also seemingly tap
into the existent snow on the ground with Iowa cooperative
observers reporting snow depths of at least 3 inches as of 12z
Monday morning. While much of this has a crust from the recent
freezing drizzle and rain, winds of this magnitude would be able
to erode the crust layer and get down to the powdery, blowable
snow further aiding in very poor visibility and travel conditions.
The winds will remain blustery overnight into Friday morning with
both NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show the boundary layer
remaining mixed. This would keep at a minimum blowing snow going
over northern Iowa.
  • Like 4

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

06Z GDPS is S and juiced (at least for this system)...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy Groundhog Day everyone.

Well... I hate to burst this Winters bubble but I heard a Robin chirping away at 7:15am this morning whilst walking the dogster !!!

What do they know about the upcoming weather patterns ?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS GRR:  

Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6
inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and
their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG
is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is
nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the
ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is
around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in
Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday.

 

I'm glad i'll have the day off on Friday for my twins 2nd birthday!

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, kush61 said:

Happy Groundhog Day everyone.

Well... I hate to burst this Winters bubble but I heard a Robin chirping away at 7:15am this morning whilst walking the dogster !!!

What do they know about the upcoming weather patterns ?

 

He's going to be freezing his little pecker off this weekend....

  • Like 1
  • lol 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, the NAM is going back the other way.  The 12z is stronger, but way nw.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Tom said:

 

@Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days.  Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec.  What similarities?

Started out rain to a mixed bag and then 3" of snow. The artic front that came through was crazy the water from the rain froze with ripples from the wind.  Froze garage doors shut and car doors. The ice from that is what the snowmobile trail base is still made up of . The temp  was around 10 on Christmas eve morning and just dropped through the day. Windy as all get out with a few snow showers.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z 3k NAM is quite different than the 12k.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Liking the trends of wetter and south with the 0z runs. 12z runs should be interesting and keeping our hopes alive for several inches of refresher snow. Maybe some sampling will be ingested into the 12z runs but that's only a guess.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Another very solid run there. This storm could end up being a lot of fun with that wind behind it! Probably won’t even be able to tell the difference between 3 or 5” with that wind, so I suppose I shouldn’t get too caught up in it lol!

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS up to 6" IMBY.  I had this pegged as an inch or less event here, starting to look more possible that we actually get a solid storm.  

And it won’t take much snow for this system to be pretty entertaining given the winds with it.

  • Windy 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GDPS is pretty bullish from Iowa to Lake Michigan.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z UK is a bit closer to the GFS/GDPS.  The 12k NAM appears to be on its own with the nw snow band.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Madtown said:

That Gdps looks a little silly with the snow layout just along the lake, but who knows

With the low wrapping up around Lake Michigan and deepening cold, it seems reasonable it will have an effect on accumulations.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, the NAM is going back the other way.  The 12z is stronger, but way nw.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Throw it out. Doesn’t even agree with the 12z 3km. 

  • Like 1

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

With the low wrapping up around Lake Michigan and deepening cold, it seems reasonable it will have an effect on accumulations.  

I'd be shocked if all the lake counties in WI walked away with 7-8"+

Link to post
Share on other sites

I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country.

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country.

Especially on top of an ice sheet. This is going to really maximize the blowing we get from ~40mph wind gusts

  • Like 2
  • Windy 1

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm curious what the NWS will do with these.  Certainly headlines will be in order for portions of the area.  As Grizz mentioned, blizzard conditions are looking quite possible.  I can't remember the last time my county was under a blizzard warning.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm curious what the NWS will do with these.  Certainly headlines will be in order for portions of the area.  As Grizz mentioned, blizzard conditions are looking quite possible.  I can't remember the last time my county was under a blizzard warning.  

Yeah tough call for them on snow right now, but definitely helps the office’s messaging that conditions are going to be pretty bad whether it’s 2 or 6”.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Travel will be difficult Friday morning per my office. Noice!!

-- Significant impacts with wind and snow Friday --

The system on Thursday may will require headlines. This will be a
mixed precipitation event at the start on Thursday. Once the cold
air wraps in behind the departing storm we will have about 12
hours of snow with west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to near
50 mph by the lake shore (ECMWF ensemble mean wind gust at MKG is
50 mph around noon on Friday). Inland winds will gust to near 40
mph into the late afternoon on Friday.

This is one of those negative tilt troughs that causes a surface
to track near GRR around sunrise Friday and deepen rapidly. The
GFS and ECMWF ensembles all agree on the deepening and the track
of the low being near GRR Friday morning. The NAM is to far north
with the surface low, so it does not show the intensity that the
other two models do. Since the NAM is an outlier, I am thinking
that is not the models of choice for this system.

As the system wraps up, Thursday night into Friday, the 850
temperature falls from around 1c at midnight to -12c by sunrise!
That is a rather impressive temperature change in such a short
time, which is why the winds will be so strong. This track keeps
the deep moisture over Southwest Michigan into midday Friday on
both their ECMWF and GFS. The NAM has the deep moisture gone by
sunrise. The result of that will be significantly more snow if the
GFS and ECMWF turn out to be correct, which I think they will. As
temperatures fall from the mid 30s around midnight into the teens
during the day on Friday. Friday mid morning into early afternoon
this would mean snow, blowing and drifting snow with wind chills
falling to near zero. This would not be a good day to be outside.

We expect to get around a half inch of precipitation as rain or
mixed rain and snow before the cold air gets here so some
accumulations are possible over our northern CWA Thursday
afternoon into the evening before the air gets to warm for snow
for about 6 hours.

Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6
inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and
their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG
is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is
nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the
ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is
around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in
Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday.
  • Snow 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z Euro --

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:
37 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

 

 

image.png

  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...