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Snow mounds are growing!!!

I finished with 5.8".  I really wanted to be able to mark down another 6-incher. There was a lot of drifting toward the end and all the blowing snow collected on the driveways and sidewalks.  My

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^^^  (to bud's posts) the GFS elect had 10" for Ames about 36 hours out with previous storm. I think they got 1.5". Personally- I think it's worse so far than the reg olde GFS.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much.....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much.....

This pattern is reminding me of a flavor of '13-'14 when we had many cold systems/arctic fronts with strong winds and ground blizzards.  Loving the looks for this one.

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12z UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Your golden Mainiwaters / Rhinelander area... biggest snows this year for sure..

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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From GRR:  getting excited  2-5 with surface low and then BOOM LES city.  Let's hope this trend continues!

Strong warm advection pattern ahead of approaching sfc low/cold
front leads to precipitation breaking out quickly Thursday
afternoon, and sfc temps rising into the mid to upper 30s raises
p-type questions. While those temps do support a rain/snow mix,
especially near and south of I-96, evaporative cooling/wet
bulbing may lead to that mix changing back over to all snow pretty
quickly or even staying all snow for the whole event. This would
be most possible across the higher terrain/typically colder area
north of GRR.

Model QPFs have been trending up with this event, especially over
wrn and nrn sections of the area, with QPF now around a half
inch. Early indications are that we could see a 2-5" snowfall out
of the warm advection component of this system leading to travel
impacts for the Thursday evening commute.

The other aspect of this system will be the winds on Friday
behind the cold front which could gust over 40 mph at the
lakeshore and 30-35 inland. Much colder air will be rushing in as
well with temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and additional
lake effect snow. The strength of the winds should send the snow
showers well inland with some blowing and drifting also possible.

--Arctic blast arrives over the weekend--

The daily specifics for next weekend are a bit unclear but most
guidance converges on the coldest air of the season arriving over
the weekend into early next week. What`s not clear is whether or
not we`ll have another synoptic system preceding the cold blast
and what the prevailing wind direction will be in the cold air.

With H8 air of around -25C arriving, potential exists for some
significant lake effect snow Sunday-Monday as well as sub zero
wind chills for an extended period of time. Highs only in the
teens will make road treatments less effective so icy roads may be
a big travel impact concern early next week. Winter has been
pretty tranquil up to now so this will be quite a shocker for
many.
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 NOAA:

Quote: A deepening northern stream trough is forecast to advance into the
Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Thursday. Decent mid level
moist isentropic ascent within the warm air advection regime is
forecast to overspread Se Mi Thurs afternoon/evening. A southern
stream upper jet max within the base of the trough is likely to
provide decent upper level divergent/difluent flow. The result will
be widespread precipitation. Model soundings suggest wet bulb
cooling will lead to an all snow. Mixing follows Thursday night. 
Stay Tuned for the latest.

Hope it stays all snow. Have to wait and see on that.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Should we do separate threads?  One for the surface low and  one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it?  I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here.  

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DMX nws wrote a novel about this event for their afternoon discussion.

Thursday and Friday:

CVA begins to increase late Wednesday into Thursday morning and
marks the start to H5 height falls across the upper Midwest. There
are still two distinct jet streaks and vorticity maxes with one to
the north and one to the south. Both kick off surface cyclogenesis
and phase well with the upper-level wave to allow deepening of both
surface cyclones. With today`s 12z model cycles, a northward trend
of the southern cyclone continues, with its center tracking through
Missouri. This will place more favorable forcing across the forecast
area on Thursday. Yesterday, it appeared that the northern and
southern features were a tad out of sync with each other. Over the
past 24 hours though, both the H5 vort maxes and surface cyclones
are now aligned in a way where there does not appear to be competing
periods of WAA vs. CAA. Throughout the day Thursday, convergence
will begin to increase as the trough axis propagates eastward across
the central Plains. WAA will be quite strong Thursday morning and
into the afternoon ahead of the trough axis. Expect rain showers to
become widespread during Thursday morning into afternoon ahead of
enhanced isentropic ascent. Later into the afternoon on Thursday as
the trough axis moves through, the centers of both cyclones pass to
the east, rapid CAA will begin with gusty winds. The deformation
zone associated with the southern cyclone will ramp up forcing, with
a strong ribbon of frontogenesis across the bulk of the forecast
area. Ice introduction arrives quickly with the onset of the cold
air, and model soundings are favoring strong lift within the DGZ
during this time. Thus, expecting a sudden transition to all snow.
During this time, with strong lift in the DGZ and overall strong
forcing moving through, snowfall rates could become intense. As the
cold air continues to push through, the DGZ will eventually be at
the surface up through about 1.5 km. Shortly after, decent lapse
rates develop within the boundary layer while there is still
saturation through the DGZ. Although omega values do not indicate
the most favorable lift, the strong winds will enhance turbulence
and with lower static stability, could certainly see more convective
snow showers with burst-like potential. At this time, cannot
definitively call for a snow-squall forecast, but the environment
certainly could be there. With respect to snowfall amounts, this is
difficult to pinpoint. The challenge with snowfall amounts right now
is how much of the QPF gets used up as rain during the earlier WAA
regime, and exactly when the transition to all snow occurs.
Accumulating snow is very likely though on Thursday. However,
snowfall accumulations are not going to be greatest concern
associated with this winter weather event. Wet surfaces from the
preceding rain in the morning followed by a rapid drop off in
temperatures as strong CAA sets in, may make for a messy situation.
There is good potential for the strong push of CAA to generate a
Flash Freeze event. Over the span of a couple hours, temperatures
could drop as much as 15 to 20 degrees. In this scenario, having wet
roads, with some snow then accumulated on top of it, would freeze
rapidly, making for very hazardous driving conditions. All-wheel
drive, four-wheel drive, and anti-lock breaks do not mean much if
this happens. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of
when this rapid drop off in temperatures will occur. A few ensembles
members favor this happening in the late morning to early afternoon,
while others would favor it closer to sunset during the evening rush
hour. Either way, paying attention to road conditions Thursday will
be necessary. Wind gusts of 25-30 MPH in a environment with a
healthy DGZ and low static stability will make for low visibilities
with blowing snow, especially if they are more convective in nature.
Couple that with rapidly freezing surfaces with strong CAA, makes
for a hazardous situation even if the snowfall totals are not overly
high. Again, snowfall totals will not be the main impact with this
event, the rapid drop off in temperatures and burst-like nature of
snow showers will be the issue to monitor. The one scenario where
all this could be mitigated is if the strong CAA happens early in
morning on Thursday, and thus not much rain happens before the
transition to snow. But, given the strength of the WAA ahead of this
trough and associated surface cyclones, this mitigating scenario is
not the most probable at this time.
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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS continues to improve.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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35 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Should we do separate threads?  One for the surface low and  one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it?  I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here.  

No need, we can use this thread since it’ll be caused from the same storm

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36 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Should we do separate threads?  One for the surface low and  one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it?  I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here.  

Yes please fire up a LES thread

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GFSv16 has become much snowier.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The DMX PM AFD is sick with potential for snow squalls. Up to you to read it, but it's solid winter.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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34 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The DMX PM AFD is sick with potential for snow squalls. Up to you to read it, but it's solid winter.

Yea, there's a plume of steep mid level lapse rates and some conditional instability with this upcoming system/arctic front that would lead to convective snow potential, especially if the system trends colder. 

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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00z NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z GFS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues.

Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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GFSv16 is just as south as the op GFS.  Keep in mind this model had no real snow anywhere in the region last evening.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z GDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK actually pulled back the southern edge of the snow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Kind of funny that this looked like a massive cutter a couple days ago. NW trend has always been the gospel but south trend has been happening a lot lately.  

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Bodes well that these maps are <100 hrs out. Classic WMI 1-2 punch knockout gaining momentum..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro is south, but it's also a bit late getting the southern energy revved up.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Does this storm match up with the Dec 23rd storm? Reading DMX disco reminded of Green Bays disco before Christmas.

@Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days.  Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec.  What similarities?

3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues.

Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions.

This storm has been trending towards a storm I remember vividly back in the epic '13-'14 season that produced a similar outcome.  Whoever is lucky to get underneath that backside defo band is in for a treat.

 

3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Kind of funny that this looked like a massive cutter a couple days ago. NW trend has always been the gospel but south trend has been happening a lot lately.  

IMHO, it is the result of the west-based -NAO that is tanking during this period.  Isn't it amazing how much influence the -NAO block has for our Sub???

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While N IL is riding the southern edge, I like our chances down here...as well as those in S MI/N IN...the snow shield is actually filling out farther W across E NE and into IA.

1.png

2.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...that snow in MO is part of the weekend system but the ribbon of 6" in N IL/S WI covers this systems snow and the overall them here is the S/SE trend.  The models are converging on the S wave tracking farther S/SE and blowing up as it tracks into the GL's.  This storm will be compact and have a fierce CF/Flash Freeze scenario for those who encounter any mix/RN on the front end.  The winds are going to be wicked!

3.png

 

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Valentine in NWS point and click is 61F for tomorrow-- so this may not be off by much. In case your wondering the record for Feb 3rd at VNT is 73F in 1962-- sfct.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06Z GFS way amped in IA compared to previous runs. snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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