Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Definitely a significant step back through hour 102. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z OP was an outlier and perhaps a bit unrealistic if you're hoping 00z looked like that. Possible sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: 18z OP was an outlier and perhaps a bit unrealistic if you're hoping 00z looked like that. Possible sure. Many were hoping the improvement would continue. Obviously that is not going to happen on this run. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 These computer models still suck. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Wow. This run is way warmer. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Requiem said: Rugpull jk I’m sure it’ll be fine. Yep. You weren’t kidding. This isn’t even close. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I suspect the GEM and EURO are colder to much colder than this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Probably some 51/28 type days early next week if this verifies. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Honestly, the 00z is probably the more realistic cold solution. The 18z was just doing 18z things. Problem is it is significantly worse than the 12z. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Problem is it is significantly worse than the 12z. Yeah, the arctic trough doesn't dig out nearly as far to the west/southwest as previous runs. It's only one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I always worry when the ICON is not onboard. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Day 6 kona low.. Pattern improving Long term(Day 7+)? (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Well it was a fun 4hrs between the 18z and the 0z. 2 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z Gfsv16 at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The GFS ensemble just a minor fasciculation eastward with trough. Main message is that there aren’t going to be bunch of seracs tumbling down the slopes of the cascades demolishing SE Portland like we hoped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: The GFS ensemble just a minor fasciculation eastward with trough. Main message is that there aren’t going to be bunch of seracs tumbling down the slopes of the cascades demolishing SE Portland like we hoped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Difficult to understate how much worse this run is. And the GEM is even worse. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Imagine thinking -8C to -10C at 850mb is a rug pull and “significantly worse” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, wxmet said: Imagine thinking -8C to -10C at 850mb is a rug pull and “significantly worse” You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I don't care what anyone thinks but these models really seem to be worse than ever before. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: I was born with 11 fingers. Custom gloves or mittens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Imagine thinking -8C to -10C at 850mb is a rug pull and “significantly worse” Andrew is back to being negative sad Andrew so that must mean... WINTER IS BACK ON! 2 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. With a Bachelor’s degree, yes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Total snow over the next week per the 00z GFS. Randy!! And it looks really pathetic for the Oregon Cascades. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The GEM is pretty mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Andrew is back to being negative sad Andrew so that must mean... WINTER IS BACK ON! Wait 5 minutes. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Where’s Jim? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Andrew wasn't wrong. The GEM is a disaster. Need our old friend King EURO to bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I don't care what anyone thinks but these models really seem to be worse than ever before. Some people like to think we've made massive strides in the past 10 years, but I think it's at best, incremental gains. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said: Where’s Jim? I am sure he will be on later. Jim has been very even-keeled lately... I am sure he remains positive. 1 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 And a slight eastward shift marks the difference between subfreezing highs and no highs below 40 for Portland. Isn't it lovely how the stars and molecules have to align perfectly to give us cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Some people like to think we've made massive strides in the past 10 years, but I think it's at best, incremental gains. I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details. And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications. This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 It’s like these computer models are all suddenly being run on a 1984 Commodore 64 with a cassette deck drive...And someone accidentally put in a “Talking Heads” cassette instead of a data cassette... 2 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hmmm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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