Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 51 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The passive rate of messages on the forum tonight is insane. It's rivaling February 2nd/3rd, 2019 levels here. You should've been here for '08, that was a "ride" that rivals some space shuttle launches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Quite a few big hitters among the EPS ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Decent trends, hmm. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like 43/50 EPS members show at least 2" for SEA. 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: My guess would be server issues due to traffic. Remember that not only are we all closely dissecting this pattern frame for frame but so are folks all over the Midwest, East, and Europe where a major coldwaves is also unfolding. Fun times. Kind of like January 1963. Cold everywhere. Nice to see some large scale cold in the 21st century. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 00z Euro text output for PDX. You can see Thursday PM we have a raging south wind aloft and 850s get to 0c and even briefly go a hair above freezing as some warm air advects. The surface is kept well below freezing due to the east winds at the surface though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Looks like 43/50 EPS members show at least 2" for SEA. Jim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 6z NAM is quite snowy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning around the Sound including in Seattle. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAM wants a more aggressive Arctic front with better off-shore connection like the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yeah looks nice, especially for areas north. Going into this with some snow on the ground would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 6z NAM is quite snowy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning around the Sound including in Seattle. That is what the rgem showed and now nam is picking up on that. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 6z NAM is quite snowy Tuesday night into Wednesday morning around the Sound including in Seattle. Would love to see that! My favorite snows are the ones going into a cold wave. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxmet said: NAM wants a more aggressive Arctic front with better off-shore connection like the RGEM We usually do well with a low directly east of us like that. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: We usually do well with a low directly east of us like that. Wrap around with reinforcing cold air, yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Would love to start off with some snow. Would really help to achieve max low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, wxmet said: NAM wants a more aggressive Arctic front with better off-shore connection like the RGEM Upon further inspection you can see some good baroclinicity there. That has real potential. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAO and AO are going to be -5 with PNA -2 going into this. Really weird combo. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Unfortunately the LR NAM is about as useful as the hour 155 GFS. Interesting possibility to consider though as we head into crunch time. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON 06z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Unfortunately the LR NAM is about as useful as the hour 155 GFS. Interesting possibility to consider though as we head into crunch time. LR NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Starting to look like some snow along that arctic frontal boundary. Big news if that trend continues! 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: LR NAM? Be honest with me, the nam has a "long range". It sucks that bad sometimes. Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 So far all three 6z models that've come out (RGEM, NAM, and ICON) are looking juicy with the Arctic front Wednesday. 4 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON a bit slower with the arctic air into PDX as the boundary hangs up a little. Looks like just flurries in the metro area with the front. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Got a gut feeling that arctic front is gonna overperform for western WA. Gonna be interesting tracking this on the higher resolution mesoscale models as this gets a bit closer. 3km NAM in particular. Hopefully a few inches for you guys up north before we wait for those lows from the SW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 It's already snowing in Hope BC with outflow winds starting up. Some -30s in NE BC now. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON is not quite as cold as its 00z incarnation. But still pretty chilly. Nothing like the EURO. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON 06z takes the Friday storm way south still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I see a -53 in N. Saskatchewen. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, nwsnow said: ICON 06z takes the Friday storm way south still. Super cold. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I see a -53 in N. Saskatchewen. That is just brutal Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’m still awake during 06z GFS initialization. That doesn’t happen often. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: So far all three 6z models that've come out (RGEM, NAM, and ICON) are looking juicy with the Arctic front Wednesday. It sure looks promising. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, wxmet said: RGEM 06z Here's the 6z. Yours is 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, nwsnow said: ICON 06z takes the Friday storm way south still. Sub 516 thickness in Seattle. Cold! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sorry for posting the wrong RGEM run. It's late. Here's the right one: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 6z GFS Initialization (Past 12 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Sub 516 thickness in Seattle. Cold! 6z Icon bottoms out below 510. 0z actually went sub 504 in Seattle which is absurd. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I am a bit nervous for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I am a bit nervous for this run Just cause of the high stakes? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post