January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I think a return to our mid-20th century climate would suit everyone here just fine.

[bainbridgekid]

Wet.

Any flooding?

[Front Ranger]

True, but the lack of wind shear/kinematic dynamics prevents the storms reaching severe criteria, as you said. I love big storms.

 

Yup, but if you wanted to go storm chasing, you'd be a lot closer to the big stuff than you are now. The eastern CO plains get some wicked storms. It's also quite flat, which makes storm chasing much easier than places further east. Rarely get the big tornadoes you see in Tornado Alley, but unless you're crazy you don't want to get near those anyway.

[TT-SEA]

Any flooding?

Not by us... I am sure the Snoqualmie River is flooding due to the activity above us at the pass.

[Front Ranger]

Is that the US blowtorch people were talking about?

 

For accuracy sake (why do I find myself saying this so much around here), I don't think people weren't necessarily saying US blowtorch, they were saying it was far from a cold pattern for the US overall.

 

There is no -AO/-NAO. That's the combo you were touting for a very cold January. Could still emerge later. This is the main thing keeping the country from torching over the next 7 days or so.

 

 

[Prairiedog]

My goal is to get a place where it snows regularly and live there.  Somewhere with much less rain, much more sun, a lot more cold, and a lot more snow sounds pretty inviting.  My wife and I are kicking around the idea of moving to Missoula.

Scroll down to Sheri's Sweet Shoppe. It's a live feed looking towards main street in Winthrop. they picked up about 4-5". Currently right at freezing but it's been warming up since their low of about 20f this am. They get about 15" of water equivalent and about 70-80" snow. Great temp profile.

http://www.methow.us/webcams/index.html#bluffcam

[Front Ranger]

I think a return to our mid-20th century climate would suit everyone here just fine.

 

It's funny, though. 95% of the time, that climate was pretty much the same as what we have now. For people coming from another climate, there would be hardly any noticeable difference. There were still the rampant Vitamin D deficiencies back then that Tim makes us all aware of now.

 

It's just that other 5% people want more of What you saw in Dec 2008 was still better than 80% of the winters from 1940-70. There were plenty of disappointing winters back then, too, just not as many.

 

All percentages are rough. But you get the point.

[bainbridgekid]

Car in a sinkhole in Hoquiam.

 

Definitely some pretty serious flooding out there.

 

[Deweydog]

I think if everyone had a nasty case of the shingles or diverticulitus they wouldn't stress quite as much about what the weather is doing.

[Prairiedog]

 

Climate Winthrop, WA United States

Rainfall (in.) 14.3 36.5

Snowfall (in.) 71.5 25

Precipitation Days 83 100

Sunny Days 188 205

Avg. July High 86 86.5

Avg. Jan. Low 11 20.5

Comfort Index (higher=better) 78 44

UV Index 3.1 4.3

Elevation ft. 1,826 1,443

[BLI snowman]

Hoquiam may have set a 24 hour rainfall record. 7.12" in 36 hours there and probably over 6" within 24 hours. The entire WA coast was just drenched.

[richard mann]

I get the impression that during the holidays, you stand near a mall Santa with a sign reading "Santa isn't real. These presents are from your parents and they don't even love you".

 

Myself, sightly different only. More concise and to be fair only at times, but more like: "Check this out, suckers." 

 

— Attached to an if semi-plausable model depiction 7-10 days out, most would rather not see. And if they did, would hope for a significant change during the interim.

[GHweatherChris]

I think if everyone had a nasty case of the shingles or diverticulitus they wouldn't stress quite as much about what the weather is doing.

Shingles=not fun.

 

I learned that the hard way.

[bainbridgekid]

Hoquiam may have set a 24 hour rainfall record. 7.12" in 36 hours there and probably over 6" within 24 hours. The entire WA coast was just drenched.

Looks like they got 6.88" between 7:53 AM yesterday and 7:53 AM this morning.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KHQM&num=72&raw=0

 

What's their 24 hour record?

[Prairiedog]

I'd take this climate. Just a bit isolated from any larger towns/cities. Wenatchee is about 100 miles south. Job ops would be limited. North Cascade HWy closes for the winter so makes travel to the west side a long trip.

They had a serious fire there and the Methow Valley lost about 300 homes. Also a crazy windstorm last August reeked havoc there with a lot of tree damage. I saw both fly fishermen and bait fishermen on the Methow at 10f the other day, fishing for steelhead not far from the hatchery.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wawint

[MossMan]

Hoquiam may have set a 24 hour rainfall record. 7.12" in 36 hours there and probably over 6" within 24 hours. The entire WA coast was just drenched.

It must be just an enormous amount of rainfall for the coast to be having major water issues, sounds like many schools were closed today with all the streets and business underwater, not to mention the mudslides. Wow! Perhaps we will see the pendulum swing the other way in about 3 weeks. Looks like the PNA is still looking to head towards at least neutral just after mid month. What kind of a early to mid January did we have in 1989 and 1996 just out of curiosity? I am too lazy...I mean busy at work to look it up myself right now

[bainbridgekid]

This is the tsunami evacuation route up the hill from my friend's house in Aberdeen.

 

[MossMan]

I'd take this climate. Just a bit isolated from any larger towns/cities. Wenatchee is about 100 miles south. Job ops would be limited. North Cascade HWy closes for the winter so makes travel to the west side a long trip.

They had a serious fire there and the Methow Valley lost about 300 homes. Also a crazy windstorm last August reeked havoc there with a lot of tree damage. I saw both fly fishermen and bait fishermen on the Methow at 10f the other day, fishing for steelhead not far from the hatchery.

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wawint

My wife and I seriously looked at that area last year after visiting some friends that live near the Carlton area of the Methow Valley. They were showing us pictures of past winters at their property and I instantly fell in love! Super quiet but warm/dry in the summer, lots of snow in the winter, the landscape is amazing...some day! But its the same problem that most of us face, the lack of job prospects in those areas

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think if everyone had a nasty case of the shingles or diverticulitus they wouldn't stress quite as much about what the weather is doing.

I currently of a grade 4 Hemorrhoid and I am still stressed. I now have to stand watching every model run and that sucks! 

[ShawniganLake]

It must be just an enormous amount of rainfall for the coast to be having major water issues, sounds like many schools were closed today with all the streets and business underwater, not to mention the mudslides. Wow! Perhaps we will see the pendulum swing the other way in about 3 weeks. Looks like the PNA is still looking to head towards at least neutral just after mid month. What kind of a early to mid January did we have in 1989 and 1996 just out of curiosity? I am too lazy...I mean busy at work to look it up myself right now

January 1989 was a seasonably coolish month, a little drier up this way.  January 1996 was mostly soggy and mild for the first 2 weeks.  Of course they were both La Nina winters, so I am not sure those are the best years to be looking at. 

[Deweydog]

January 5th hasn't seemed too cold so far.

[MossMan]

Looks like such a lovely day in Northeast Washington!

[richard mann]

Is that the US blowtorch people were talking about? ...

 

No. (?)

[MossMan]

January 1989 was a seasonably coolish month, a little drier up this way.  January 1996 was mostly soggy and mild for the first 2 weeks.  Of course they were both La Nina winters, so I am not sure those are the best years to be looking at. 

Thanks! Yeah I am grasping for straws here, but just more curious than anything.

[MossMan]

January 5th hasn't seemed too cold so far.

We still have a little over 9hrs left, anything can happen, models can be wrong! Have you checked the NAM for any backdoor intrusions for the 7pm hour?

[Deweydog]

We still have a little over 9hrs left, anything can happen, models can be wrong! Have you checked the NAM for any backdoor intrusions for the 7pm hour?

Hopefully Rob is tracking the water vapor loop for initialization problems!

[Phil]

For accuracy sake (why do I find myself saying this so much around here), I don't think people weren't necessarily saying US blowtorch, they were saying it was far from a cold pattern for the US overall.

 

There is no -AO/-NAO. That's the combo you were touting for a very cold January. Could still emerge later. This is the main thing keeping the country from torching over the next 7 days or so.

 

EPO.png

I'm not going to pull up your posts from last week..we all know what you said. We also know that the NAM flip will take longer to occur due to the elasticity of the PV which remained stubbornly barotropic up until the wave-1 response. We went over this a week ago, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this up now.

 

That said, we'll attempt at a -NAO during the 3rd or 4th week this month. It may or may not work out.

[stuffradio]

I'm not going to pull up your posts from last week..we all know what you said. We also know that the NAM flip will take longer to occur due to the elasticity of the PV which remained stubbornly barotropic up until the wave-1 response. We went over this a week ago, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this up now.

 

That said, we'll attempt at a -NAO during the 3rd or 4th week this month. It may or may not work out.

The PNA is also being forecast to go positive. I've received around 4 inches of rain so far for 2015. 80" to go!

[Phil]

Yup, but if you wanted to go storm chasing, you'd be a lot closer to the big stuff than you are now. The eastern CO plains get some wicked storms. It's also quite flat, which makes storm chasing much easier than places further east. Rarely get the big tornadoes you see in Tornado Alley, but unless you're crazy you don't want to get near those anyway.

Yeah, but I have a wife and daughter (2nd child on the way too). I don't chase anymore.

 

We get big severe in this area several times a year..I'd prefer not to lose that.

[Front Ranger]

But all models are pointing to a predominantly +AO/+NAO pattern through the 15th, with rising EPO.

 

+AO.png

 

+NAO.png

 

EPO.png

 

 

I really don't see anything pointing towards cold for anyone after next week's cold wave for the East.

 

Here you go, Phil.

 

I wasn't saying the models were showing a coast to coast blowtorch, as you can see. I was saying they were not pointing to a cold pattern after this week. Again, the persistent -EPO is the only thing keeping things cool for now. If that goes away as the models are saying in 5-7 days, then with +AO/+NAO, it's very difficult to see where the cold will be coming from.

[BLI snowman]

January 5th hasn't seemed too cold so far.

 

So close!! High of 34 so far in Abbotsford!

[Deweydog]

So close!! High of 34 so far in Abbotsford!

 

Horseshoes and hand grenades...

[BLI snowman]

Looks like they got 6.88" between 7:53 AM yesterday and 7:53 AM this morning.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KHQM&num=72&raw=0

 

What's their 24 hour record?

 

Their calendar day record is 5.39" on 10/20/2003.  I would imagine their 24 hour record is a little higher, but that would have to be close.

[Guest Winterdog]

If the GFS 18Z has anything to do with it the east coast will be having at least 3 arctic surges or events through the 21st of the month. Two of which have 850's between -20C and -30C. We start shaking in anticipation if the 850's look to get past-10C. I don't think any of our "blasts" topped -10C in Seattle this winter. I guess you gotta take what you can get.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks! Yeah I am grasping for straws here, but just more curious than anything.

 

Let me assist with your straw-grasping

 

Warm/neutral years with very wet events in January: 1953, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1990. 1954 and 1990 were followed by something good. The other three were not.

 

Probably means zip.

[richard mann]

I'm not going to pull up your posts from last week..

 

Appreciate your sense of form and courtesy here. Your take attached to them would probably just be one more reductive, and or inductive, anyway.

 

— And we don't need that. Let's just go with: .. of course; you were right all along. (And be happier.)

[bainbridgekid]

So close!! High of 34 so far in Abbotsford!

Interesting to see BLI in the mid-upper 30's all day after being in the low 50's all evening yesterday.

[wx_statman]

But what are the livestock going to eat.  Beef and bacon are good.

Crap! No ice age then.

[HighlandExperience]

If the GFS 18Z has anything to do with it the east coast will be having at least 3 arctic surges or events through the 21st of the month. Two of which have 850's between -20C and -30C. We start shaking in anticipation if the 850's look to get past-10C. I don't think any of our "blasts" topped -10C in Seattle this winter. I guess you gotta take what you can get.

 

Pretty depressing for us.

[MossMan]

Interesting to see BLI in the mid-upper 30's all day after being in the low 50's all evening yesterday.

Yeah its only 36 in Lynden, though I don't believe they have made it out of the 30's through the duration of this event. Figured the cold air would have been scoured out up there by now.