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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


Skagit Weather

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Holy s**t @ the 00z GFS...baroclinic transition, wave-1 response preceding a wave-2. If this verifies, it's time for some jaws music:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/t3CKz6/800.jpg

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Tonight's GFS is about as bad as it gets.  Hopefully the ECMWF has a better handle on things.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The Canadian ensemble is better tonight.  It has a more distinct signal for rising heights over the Aleutians and the GOA in week two than previous runs.  There are 5 or 6 very cold members at the end of the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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In spite of the ECMWF not looking great at the 500mb level tonight, it shows great promise for better things a bit later on judging by the surface pressure configuration it is showing over the NE and NC Pacific at days 9 and 10.  The GFS ensemble looks better tonight also with it indicating below normal heights over the PNW and above normal heights to our NW late in the run.  All in all things are looking up a bit.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That's your assessment hmn. (?)

 

Basic perspective lent had been my intent more with the post.  And your perception of my comment, certainly hasn't changed my view of the post that I'd attached it to. 

 

Keep thinkin'. (Would be my advice for ya.)

 

Perhaps I've let my appreciation of Fred's authority here, cloud my thinking somewhat. 

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Not seeing much wind over the interior tonight, but the coastal areas seem to be getting with a brief period of high wind quickly traveling up the coast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Was in Salem earlier and my car thermometer said 61. Currently 55 with heavy rain here at 1600'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That's your assessment hmn. (?)

 

Basic perspective lent had been my intent more with the post.  And your perception of my comment, certainly hasn't change my view of the post that I'd attached it to. 

 

Keep thinkin'. (Would be my advice for ya.)

 

Perhaps I've let my appreciation of Fred's authority here, cloud my thinking somewhat. 

Considering it's a two word post, and the history you two have of fighting back and forth, it isn't the best thing to post that in reply to him IMO. That will be the last post about this for me though.

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I know you mean well, but you could do a better job when it comes to righting-ship here. Having worked with "sociopaths" in the past, I can say with confidence that very few posters here actually fit that bill..maybe one or two? Even in jest, I think that's kind of low down.

 

Furthermore, I've noticed you make a lot of allusions to me, many of which are false and/or exaggerated..(#iceage2017 being the latest example). I don't know whether this is intentional or not, but I've picked up on it over the last 6-8 weeks. If you'd like to chat with me (about anything) feel free to PM me or shoot me a text.

I'll text you.

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The CFS "delivers the goods" in late February! ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This has been improving each day...I do believe we will be seeing something good in the next couple of weeks!

And still windy here in Arlington/7Lakes area!

image.jpg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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And even though I have not slept in weeks it seems like between my 11mo old daughter deciding sleeping at night is overrated, my wife having resent surgery, work being extremely busy...last night was the first night that the planets aligned and all of us were sleeping like babies until 2am when the wind started shaking the house. It's a good thing I like the wind, otherwise I would have been pissed!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Pretty good storm overnight and into this morning here.  Strong winds and heavy rain.  Winds have been gusting in the 40-50mph range for several hours and we picked up 2.4" of rain overnight.  Currently 18200 customers without power on southern Vancouver Island. 

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Looks like Sea Tac recorded a gust of 59 and Everett had a 55 mph gust. Not too shabby! Though hopefully the 65,000 people without power in the Puget Sound area will have it back by noon! Feels very similar to last years divisional playoff game when we lost power and cable but it all came back right at kick off!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like Sea Tac recorded a gust of 59 and Everett had a 55 mph gust. Not too shabby! Though hopefully the 65,000 people without power in the Puget Sound area will have it back by noon! Feels very similar to last years divisional playoff game when we lost power and cable but it all came back right at kick off!

Pretty impressive

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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At least this batch of heavy rain might fall as snow at the higher mt hood ski resort.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's hard to bet against the Hawks or Aaron Rodgers in this situation. Should be a dandy.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That's exactly why people aren't jumping for joy over your 384 hour map.

But the modeling never predicted a SSW on the last occasion..that was a deal requiring an internal, properly timed follow-up break to avoid destructive interference between waves..elasticity was tough

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