February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

The early January event was major for WA coastal regions, with the flooding in Aberdeen, and provided some impressive 24-48 hour totals in some spots. But this event is much more widespread and prolonged. Several separate storms.

 

Do a little research on water collection in northern/central CA. The reservoirs play a significant role in their water supply, and a storm of this magnitude would be very beneficial. Could be looking at 5-10" for many areas over the next week, that's massive for them.

Crazy stuff coming up! You can tell by the fact this place has really come to life!

[richard mann]

Richard, you live there...care to explain to BLIsnowman how these upcoming storms actually will provide drought relief?

 

Your perspective more general above (with addendum.) was good enough. 

 

It (both.) if with, and not to steer the broader discussion here more south than appropriate, .. he (along with anyone else interested more general focus) might want to check these "five" different more publicly aimed "Wx Stories" generated by the Sacramento NWS WFO.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto

 

.. Through which the more detailed main "forecast discussion" can of course also be found.

 

— Certainly the suggestion, of just how much help this series of storm whether will or might be, more "relief" wise, should be covered within and where checking through these different elements.

[BLI snowman]

No sense putting the best spin on the potential. Right. ?

 (hey, Look at it this way, I didn't say "shut up".)

 

.. cross-reference. - http://theweatherfor...limate/?p=68862

 

You're going to continue to suffer from drought for the foreseeable future. Sorry sweetie.

[Front Ranger]

Crazy stuff coming up! You can tell by the fact this place has really come to life!

 

Everyone's wildest fantasies coming true!

 

But it is at least looking like the most impressive series of storms for the West Coast thus far this winter, definitely different than anything seen in January. You can't collect sunshine in reservoirs!

[BLI snowman]

The early January event was major for WA coastal regions, with the flooding in Aberdeen, and provided some impressive 24-48 hour totals in some spots. But this event is much more widespread and prolonged. Several separate storms.

 

Do a little research on water collection in northern/central CA. The reservoirs play a significant role in their water supply, and a storm of this magnitude would be very beneficial. Could be looking at 5-10" for many areas over the next week, that's massive for them.

 

Um, long lasting snowpack provides way more relief than these often brief, localized, and extreme downpours do. Sorry, but CA's reservoirs will continue to suffer. Short term runoff notwithstanding, there's little snow on the way for them and it's been a record bad year for them. Localized flooding and mudslides will happen no doubt, but they won't see long term drought relief.

 

As for the PNW, I have no idea how you can look at the models right now and consider this a noteworthy event for us. 1-3" of rain in the lowlands and some 40-50mph wind gusts in spots. Pretty routine.

[Deweydog]

Everyone's wildest fantasies coming true!

 

But it is at least looking like the most impressive series of storms for the West Coast thus far this winter, definitely different than anything seen in January. You can't collect sunshine in reservoirs!

For California, absolutely. But for us this is nothing removed from any of the other SW'erly flow fodder which has been the norm when things have been on the active side.

 

Your monthly call ain't looking so hot.

[Front Ranger]

You're going to continue to suffer from drought for the foreseeable future. Sorry sweetie.

 

http://www.acwa.com/content/california-water-series/californias-water-storing-water

 

http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/09/13/water-storage-in-california-2/

[BLI snowman]

http://www.acwa.com/content/california-water-series/californias-water-storing-water

 

http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/09/13/water-storage-in-california-2/

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

Long term relief.... you're going to see water supply fluctuations in the next few weeks but no snow in the mountains. 

[Front Ranger]

For California, absolutely. But for us this is nothing removed from any of the other SW'erly flow fodder which has been the norm when things have been on the active side.

 

Your monthly call ain't looking so hot.

 

It's different, more wet and suppressed pattern than anything seen in January. Even for just the PNW, it looks wetter and stormier than any 4-5 day period in January. The death ridge of the past few weeks is taking a break.

 

Let's see how the rest of the month plays out, but certainly more active and stormy for the West Coast to start with.

[Front Ranger]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

Long term relief.... you're going to see water supply fluctuations in the next few weeks but no snow in the mountains. 

 

You obviously didn't take the time to even look at those links. Educate yourself.

 

More rainfall = higher water supply = drought relief. It's not rocket science.

[richard mann]

You're going to continue to suffer from drought for the foreseeable future. Sorry sweetie.

 

".. pea" ?

 

 http://www.proxigee.com/no-snow.jpeg     http://www.proxigee.com/glass_of_water.jpeg

.. Slowing our "roll" here a bit, perhaps.  ?

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/808-february-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=68867

[BLI snowman]

You obviously didn't take the time to even look at those links. Educate yourself.

 

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2015/snow1502.gif

 

Can you find me some years with

 

I'll let you do the research on this one, since you were so keen on it with regards to Lake Tahoe's January temps.

[richard mann]

.. And if again. 

 

No sense putting the best spin on the potential. Right. ?
 (hey, Look at it this way, I didn't say "shut up".)

[Front Ranger]

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2015/snow1502.gif

 

Can you find me some years with

 

I'll let you do the research on this one, since you were so keen on it with regards to Lake Tahoe's January temps.

 

Let's see how that drought monitor you linked to looks next Thursday. I saved the map from Jan 27. We can see if the upcoming rains have any effect.

[richard mann]

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2015/snow1502.gif

 

Can you find me some years with

 

I'll let you do the research on this one, since you were so keen on it with regards to Lake Tahoe's January temps.

 

Expansively "reductive".  (Somewhat. ? non-sequitor. ?)

[Dan the Weatherman]

January was overwhelmingly dry, but there were two brief interludes with warm heavy rain events. December had that as well. This is a pretty standard ugly pattern for us, and impressively wet down south.

 

Unfortunately, this won't provide much of any drought relief for CA. It will temporarily help lowland farmers, but they need an extreme amount of snow in the Sierras at this point and they won't be getting any in the upcoming pineapple juice pattern. 

This rain will help in filling some of the reservoirs, and since they are rather low at this point due to drought, water will probably not have to be released as is sometimes the case. Hopefully at some point, colder storms will bring more in the way of snow for the mountains, since the snow melt is needed for the summer months.

[BLI snowman]

Let's see how that drought monitor you linked to looks next Thursday. I saved the map from Jan 27. We can see if the upcoming rains have any effect.

 

It'll have about the same long term impact as the big warm and heavy rain events in December down there. Fairly minimal.  Without snow in the mountains now, their margin for error these next few months is minimal. Most likely, severe drought will continue.

[Front Ranger]

This rain will help in filling some of the reservoirs, and since they are rather low at this point due to drought, water will probably not have to be released as is sometimes the case. Hopefully at some point, colder storms will bring more in the way of snow for the mountains, since the snow melt is needed for the summer months.

 

Yeah, as I already told him, of course heavy mountain snow will be preferable (there could be 1-3' above 8,000' with this, but obviously you want some at lower elevations), but to act like heavy rains provides no drought relief is just not accurate.

[Front Ranger]

It'll have about the same long term impact as the big warm and heavy rain events in December down there. Fairly minimal.  Without snow in the mountains now, their margin for error these next few months is minimal. Most likely, severe drought will continue.

 

Those actually improved their outlook for 2015. And this looks much bigger.

 

Read.

[richard mann]

It'll have about the same long term impact as the big warm and heavy rain events in December down there. Fairly minimal.  Without snow in the mountains now, their margin for error these next few months is minimal. Most likely, severe drought will continue.

 

This is if in more basic terms, fairly un-informed. .. And otherwise, unsubstantiated.-As in according to what. ? .. or should I perhaps be asking, whom. ?

 

— And regarding the main argument, more "general". ... Perhaps .. "First things first" .. one type of precip. better than none. (?) .. Reservoirs down pretty low. Fuller is better.

[BLI snowman]

Those actually improved their outlook for 2015. And this looks much bigger.

 

Read.

 

Improved? From catastrophic drought to exceptionally awful one? Okay....

 

Much of the state is still in exceptional drought. The wettest areas next week are also the furthest north/least drought afflicted. The Sierra snowpack is critical for a lot of the state going forward, and it continues to suck. It is what it is.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, as I already told him, of course heavy mountain snow will be preferable (there could be 1-3' above 8,000' with this, but obviously you want some at lower elevations), but to act like heavy rains provides no drought relief is just not accurate.

 

It's actually about looking at the bigger picture. You seem to have a pretty myopic view of how drought relief works. Come May, these rains won't mean much if the mountain snowpack is at historically low levels.

[Deweydog]

It's different, more wet and suppressed pattern than anything seen in January. Even for just the PNW, it looks wetter and stormier than any 4-5 day period in January. The death ridge of the past few weeks is taking a break.

 

Let's see how the rest of the month plays out, but certainly more active and stormy for the West Coast to start with.

 

i agree.  We should do that.  

[BLI snowman]

 

This is, if in more basic terms, fairly un-informed. .. And otherwise, unsubstantiated.-As in according to what. ? .. or should I be asking, whom. ?

 

— And regarding the main argument, more "general". ... Perhaps "First things first" .. one type of precip. better than none. (?) .. Reservoirs down pretty low. Fuller is better.

 

Obviously. But it won't get you very far if the next few months stay warm and snowless.

[richard mann]

.. You're just down playing the potential.  (What's my incentive to ponder the negative here.)

[richard mann]

-

More general theme, more general input: ... one additional perspective that I'd like to point to where looking at the broader event potential here, somewhat more abstract perhaps, ...
 
Best case, I'm looking at this series of systems lined up, as possibly being looked at as (analogous to) a lowering cloud deck—initially higher and (more as it were), connected to a more decent storm more singular approaching from the West. 
 
— This with looking at its both general character more in front and more immediately west—fairly weak organization. And then with the systems more elemental behind it, being of more substance .. with the potential for a stronger general force of movement beginning to take effect where looking at the main colder air pushing these elements more systemic more to the west following that more leading, beginning in the next 24 to 36 hours.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For all the weeping and gnashing of teeth we only have to look back one year to see what our climate is still capable of. The February 2014 snowstorm was a major winter storm from Eugene to Portland. The Oregonian is running some 1 year anniversary coverage on the storm and they also included a link to this gem....

 

http://media.oregonlive.com/weather_impact/other/pl_002102014_1211_12159_210.pdf

[HighlandExperience]

For all the weeping and gnashing of teeth we only have to look back one year to see what our climate is still capable of. The February 2014 snowstorm was a major winter storm from Eugene to Portland. The Oregonian is running some 1 year anniversary coverage on the storm and they also included a link to this gem....

 

http://media.oregonlive.com/weather_impact/other/pl_002102014_1211_12159_210.pdf

 

All I remember was the pain and discontent I felt knowing that we just got hit with another snowless arctic blast only to slowly moderate into warm weather again.

 

Certainly happier days for those down south though. Given our recent weather, you guys might have to hold onto that memory for awhile.

[AlTahoe]

No doubt the past couple Januaries have been extreme, but...

 

The other Tahoe station has a much longer period of record, and the January with the warmest average high temp is 1961.

 

In addition, that station was below normal as recently as August 2014. And that's below the long term average, not just 30 year. It was also below the long term average several months in 2013.

 

Let's look at another reliable, long term station for the region: the Reno airport. Neither of the past 2 Januaries were even close to the record warm January max average from 1948.

 

It's helpful to look at more than one station.

The difference between South lake Tahoe and Tahoe city is huge as they are 20 miles apart north to south and Tahoe city gets much more spill over as they are closer to the crest. Tahoe city also had snow cover this January while we had none in South Lake Tahoe as you can tell by the almost 7F degree difference between them for January. Glenbrook is probably a better comparison for South Lake Tahoe and you can see that this January was +5F warmer than the 1961 January there, and also their only 50F or warmer January. No way around it this was by far and away the warmest January recorded in my area. 

 

Also Reno usually sits in inversions and has temps in the low 40's when we have our heat waves up here in the mountains so their records are pretty much useless for comparing record warm months with the Sierra. 

[MossMan]

I'm grasping at straws here.  Low's north of Hawaii can lead to ridge retrograde, right?

 

http://s14.postimg.org/y2o8yta1d/4_corner0.png

Feb 2011 redux!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I remember was the pain and discontent I felt knowing that we just got hit with another snowless arctic blast only to slowly moderate into warm weather again.

 

Certainly happier days for those down south though. Given our recent weather, you guys might have to hold onto that memory for awhile.

 

I pulled off a 23/13 on the 6th. With 5" of snow. 

[Timmy]

It's raining.

[HighlandExperience]

It's raining.

 

I pulled off a 23/13 on the 6th. With 5" of snow. 

 

Oh yay!!

 

Meanwhile east coast is getting hit by storm after storm this week into early next week.

 

Next week  we are looking at temps in the mid 60s possibly! I guess we should enjoy it.

[Front Ranger]

The difference between South lake Tahoe and Tahoe city is huge as they are 20 miles apart north to south and Tahoe city gets much more spill over as they are closer to the crest. Tahoe city also had snow cover this January while we had none in South Lake Tahoe as you can tell by the almost 7F degree difference between them for January. Glenbrook is probably a better comparison for South Lake Tahoe and you can see that this January was +5F warmer than the 1961 January there, and also their only 50F or warmer January. No way around it this was by far and away the warmest January recorded in my area. 

 

Also Reno usually sits in inversions and has temps in the low 40's when we have our heat waves up here in the mountains so their records are pretty much useless for comparing record warm months with the Sierra. 

 

I'm not disputing what you've experienced where you live.

 

But you made some pretty wide-sweeping statements about the climate in general, based on your local station's records. Which is why I thought it might be wise to look at a few other stations in the region.

[Front Ranger]

Improved? From catastrophic drought to exceptionally awful one? Okay....

 

Much of the state is still in exceptional drought. The wettest areas next week are also the furthest north/least drought afflicted. The Sierra snowpack is critical for a lot of the state going forward, and it continues to suck. It is what it is.

 

Actually, some of the most drought-afflicted areas will be seeing the most anomalous rains. Yes, the Sierra snowpack is very important, but it's simply not accurate to act like heavy rains do little or nothing for drought relief.

 

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Actually, some of the most drought-afflicted areas will be seeing the most anomalous rains. Yes, the Sierra snowpack is very important, but it's simply not accurate to act like heavy rains do little or nothing for drought relief.

 

20150127_usdm_home.png

 

get_orig_img.png

 

It's simply not accurate to act like what is shaping up down there next week will make a significant long term dent in the drought assuming the overriding snow trends continue. 

 

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/california/California-Drought-Snowfall-Snow-Rain-Precipitation-Sierra-Nevada-290916671.html

 

Pretty much sums things up. Short term relief for the water levels, but long term dry season water issues are the most worrisome and vital.

[Front Ranger]

It's simply not accurate to act like what is shaping up down there next week will make a significant long term dent in the drought assuming the overriding snow trends continue. 

 

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/california/California-Drought-Snowfall-Snow-Rain-Precipitation-Sierra-Nevada-290916671.html

 

Pretty much sums things up. Short term relief for the water levels, but long term dry season water issues are the most worrisome and vital.

 

No one storm is going to erase the drought. Even a huge snowstorm in the Sierras down to 5,000' wouldn't matter much if the late winter/early spring torches and it's all gone by summer.

 

In light of how little rain CA has gotten the past 5 weeks or so, this storm is significant. It doesn't solve the long term issue, but it provides some relief in the short term, more water in the reservoirs, and buys some time for things to get better before they could get worse again.

 

Put it this way: if it weren't for the big mid December storm and this upcoming one, the water outlook for the next few months in CA would be much more dire.

[Front Ranger]

In this article, the researcher is talking about what effect the big December storm will have: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/december/rains-swain-qna-121014.html

 

How much more precipitation do we need to get out of the drought?

This will be the most substantial dose of relief California has received since the start of the drought. It certainly doesn't end the drought, but it's a nice start and will provide some short-term relief. Fire season is essentially over, and landscapes in California are greening – that didn't happen last year until February. Streams are already flowing – or certainly will be after this Thursday. The rain will be good for ecosystems, salmon runs and reservoirs, which were actually dropping until early December. Thanks to the rain, they will be rising uniformly in the short term. But California still has bigger water issues that this storm may not even touch. Over the course of the current drought, we have really overutilized California's groundwater aquifers, and we would need many storms of this magnitude to replenish them.

 

Further research shows that, while increasing the snowpack greatly would be most beneficial especially for the summer, these big winter rains do a lot to help ease the effects of the drought on the overall ecosystem, along with increasing groundwater/soil moisture.

[richard mann]

It's simply not accurate to act like what is shaping up down there next week will make a significant long term dent in the drought assuming the overriding snow trends continue. 

 

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/california/California-Drought-Snowfall-Snow-Rain-Precipitation-Sierra-Nevada-290916671.html

 

Pretty much sums things up. Short term relief for the water levels, but long term dry season water issues are the most worrisome and vital.

 

We know the down side/s of the current situation. Estimates of what actually drops working to change it are speculation. More pessimistic or optimistic, conservative or more liberal, more positive or more negative.  

 

But bet against a more positive result connected to this series of systems, point to the down sides of the current potential only, and I'm sure you won't find much real interest expressed in your input. North or South. 

[Front Ranger]

We know the down side/s of the current situation. Estimates of what actually drops working to change it are speculation. More pessimistic or optimistic, conservative or more liberal, more positive or more negative.  

 

But bet against a more positive result connected to this series of systems, point to the down sides of the current potential only, and I'm sure you won't find much real interest expressed in your input. North or South. 

 

Or in other words, at least it's going to rain down there. A lot.

 

Which no matter how you view that for helping the drought, is better than it not raining.