ShawniganLake Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro verification scores have been below the GFS this winter. Thought I'd mention Hour 120 Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomaly correlations over last 30 days for GFS and Euro since GFS now refers to the new GFS. Last 30 days:ECMWF: 0.919GFS: 0.893CMC: 0.878 Last 63 runs (since new GFS became operational)ECMWF: 0.917GFS: 0.891 Last 365 days:ECMWF: 0.904GFS: 0.874 New GFS is still sub-par compared to Euro although we've only had about 16 days of operational runs. Will be interesting to see how it fares over the rest of 2015. Apparently not over the last 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Olympia down 22 degrees in four hours! #takethatshitBoston Boston got up to 37 yesterday. Some snow melted. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Actually, what I said was that I thought it would be better than January. After a horrid first half of the month (aside from the much needed rains in CA), we've certainly see a better pattern for the West overall return the second half of this month, better than anything since late December in terms of cold and widespread snowfall. That hasn't translated into "goodies" for the PNW, but the pattern is growing progressively colder, and there's a decent shot of mountain snow coming later this week it appears. 0.0" of snow at Government Camp this month, a first for February. All time monthly records at PDX and SEA. Sorry, it hasn't been better. Accept that and move along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not recently. The Euro has been leading the way with the recent pattern shift to colder weather in the West. GFS has been all over the place past day 5.We've definitely moved into the "ish" portion of our quietish month! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Actually, what I said was that I thought it would be better than January. After a horrid first half of the month (aside from the much needed rains in CA), we've certainly see a better pattern for the West overall return the second half of this month, better than anything since late December in terms of cold and widespread snowfall. That hasn't translated into "goodies" for the PNW, but the pattern is growing progressively colder, and there's a decent shot of mountain snow coming later this week it appears.Spin it! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. It's also way different at hour 174. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Spin it! You saying I called for a "cold onshore flow revival" this month was rather heavy spin. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.pngGo Banana! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Boston got up to 37 yesterday. Some snow melted. Tears were lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 You saying I called for a "cold onshore flow revival" this month was rather heavy spin.There was none in January. You said it would be back in February. I believe that would have been a revival. It turned out to be a bad call, especially given the nino tendencies which have been persistent. Just own it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 We've definitely moved into the "ish" portion of our quietish month! I think you have to keep in mind the different perspective that I have, compared to most on here. I take a broader (to borrow a Richard-ism) view of things like pattern shifts, not just PNW-centric. The pattern has definitely shifted to the coldest/stormiest we've see for the West overall since late December, and that looks to continue. Granted, I thought we'd see more of a return to mountain snows in the PNW by now and that the month overall would be cooler for you guys, but the overall western ridge pattern that dominated for so long has certainly abated. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think you have to keep in mind the different perspective that I have, compared to most on here. I take a broader (to borrow a Richard-ism) view of things like pattern shifts, not just PNW-centric. The pattern has definitely shifted to the coldest/stormiest we've see for the West overall since late December, and that looks to continue. Granted, I thought we'd see more of a return to mountain snows in the PNW by now and that the month overall would be cooler for you guys, but the overall western ridge pattern that dominated for so long has certainly abated.I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 0.0" of snow at Government Camp this month, a first for February. All time monthly records at PDX and SEA. Sorry, it hasn't been better. Accept that and move along. Premature... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather. "Feverishly obsesses"? Going heavy on the hyperbole again there, doc. I lived there most my life. It's like following a sports team you grew up with once you move to another city. I still root for you guys. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 "Feverishly obsesses"? Going heavy on the hyperbole again there, doc. I lived there most my life. It's like following a sports team you grew up with once you move to another city. I still root for you guys.I guess I should have narrowed that down to central Thurston County. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Premature... Sticking snow doesn't look very likely down that low this week. Either way, it's been a historically woeful February and you oversold the "differences". Accept it and move along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015022400/ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_8.png 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 00z Euro goes legit arctic. -13 850mb temps to PDX at hour 204. Not bad: http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20150224065653-4215-2189.gif 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 This will be a good Euro versus GFS test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well look at that EURO Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS ensemble http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015022400/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 From Brett Anderson earlier this afternoon. "Cold expands west later this weekThe West Coast high pressure ridge will expand farther north and west late this week into next week which will open the door for a piece of the Arctic air to drop into southern BC. While this will certainly not be any type of cold air mass to write home about, it will be notable for this winter due to the fact that it has been so mild." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 .... the Moon's gravity is actually not sufficient enough to account for the observed tidal behavior.How about a quick run-down of the "actual" facts and cause for us professor. ? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not recently. The Euro has been leading the way with the recent pattern shift to colder weather in the West. GFS has been all over the place past day 5.Too bad. I'd been hoping that with the upgrade it be would showing a more distinctive improvement. Of course even a bit better capability more over-all where compared with the ECMWF. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather. .. A misrepresentation that doesn't hold up in my view. Perhaps my "less narrow" perspective from here where I am at the southern edge of the region more only. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 (.. cross-reference.)http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/page-3?do=findComment&comment=71877 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hmm. Haven't seen that for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro verification scores have been below the GFS this winter. Feels like that is true lately. Maybe it feels that way because its no longer swerving all over the road like it did before the upgrade. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 This will be a good Euro versus GFS test. Definitely... because the GFS shows nothing. Including the 06Z run. The 06Z run has some light rain later this week and then nothing for the rest of the run. Not real cold... and certainly dry. Hard to call this a stormier pattern as Flatiron is doing. The pattern during early February was much more stormy... just too warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Definitely... because the GFS shows nothing. Including the 06Z run. The 06Z run has some light rain later this week and then nothing for the rest of the run. Not real cold... and certainly dry. Hard to call this a stormier pattern as Flatiron is doing. The pattern during early February was much more stormy... just too warm. As I said, for the West overall, it is. We are seeing legitimate Western troughing, something that was non-existent pretty much all of January and the first half of this month. So far, it's been centered to the east of you guys, but the trend is west. If the Euro/Canadian are correct, the PNW will soon get in on more of the cold and precip. Also, the 6z GFS was a big-time step towards the Euro/Canadian. Much further west with everything at day 6/7 compared to the 0z. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Mark talks about how things have changed in the models... from looking wet and stormy to basically the same pattern we have seen all winter. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 You were the one saying just the other day the Euro has been better since the upgrade?I think you're confusing me with someone else. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Apparently not over the last 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere.I just have the global numbers, not sure about the NH. Haven't bothered to calculate that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Mark talks about how things have changed in the models... from looking wet and stormy to basically the same pattern we have seen all winter. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/Let us hope that the 12z swings in favor of the euro today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 29F this morning. Global cooling is back, baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 28.9 here this morning, my coldest low since January 21st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like the 12z GFS goes east! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's insane how drastically the CFSv2 flip flopped today. It went from cold to dry, cold to wet, and now today it did a 360 and it's warm and dry for March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think you're confusing me with someone else. Must be. But yeah, it was for the NH like Shawnigan Lake's stats. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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