February 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

Thats called melting in the sun... it was above freezing there. I have seen small amounts of snow evaporate when its 15 degrees... it called melting at 36.

You clearly don't understand the physics of snowmelt.

[seattleweatherguy]

Seattle nws discussion a good read this evening.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE DEVELOPING WARM

OCCLUSION THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 990 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 44N

141W. THE NEW 00Z GFS SHOWS WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SPREADING INTO

THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR SATURDAY EVENING...THEN NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE

THE SEATTLE-TACOMA-EVERETT METRO AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO

SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND THE 00Z WRFGFS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF

WASHINGTON SHOWS 2-5 INCAND HES OF SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN

THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...1-3 INCHES FOR THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.

THIS LINES UP SOMEWHAT WITH WHAT THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS SHOWING

EARLIER TODAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOLDS

HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BACK WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND...AND THE 12Z ECMWF DID NOT EVEN SHOW THIS

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA. THE 00Z

NAM12 KEEPS PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH - BUT THAT MODEL PERFORMED QUITE

POORLY OVER NW OREGON AND FAR SW WA TODAY. TO TOP OFF UNCERTAINTY

TONIGHT...THE 00Z CANADIAN KEEPS EASTERLY PRES GRADIENTS RATHER

STRONG THRU SUN AND SUN EVENING AND SHOWS SUB FREEZING BOUNDARY

LAYER TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY

EVENING...FREEZING RAIN IN THE SEATTLE METRO? WILL AWAIT THE

INCOMING 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS

HIGH DESPITE THE TIMEFRAME BECOMING RATHER SHORT. ALBRECHT

 

 

 

Interesting. do not buy those quite yet

[KMartin]

I dont' buy the metro freezing rain yet but I do buy this area for the most probable in need of an Ice Storm Warning so I hope they do not sit on this - -

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2714g-1000x666.jpg

[Skagit Weather]

I can dream can't I? It would be amazing if this amount of precipitation fell and the warm-up occurred slower than forecast. If only it would stay below freezing till 4 am Monday!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020800/images_d2/ww_pcp24.60.0000.gif

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Satellite suggests the cloud shield is shrinking. 

 

My view of the stars confirms the satellite.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Im going to issue a heavy snow warning for the hood canal area from late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. 3 to 8 inches.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard rain warning might be needed for next week.

[IbrChris]

1.5 inches or so and that might be generous.  The warning definitely didn't verify for the metro area.  

 

4.5" here in Tigard. Verified pretty well down here.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Im going to issue a heavy snow warning for the hood canal area from late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. 3 to 8 inches.

 

And I'm going to go over there and melt your snow with a Bic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is amazing that SnowWizard has been basically absent. I think us not getting any snow here is hitting him pretty hard. It is not like him not to post more.

[KMartin]

It is amazing that SnowWizard has been basically absent. I think us not getting any snow here is hitting him pretty hard. It is not like him not to post more.

Hopefully not too hard when "my life is over" comes to mind.  I haven't seen him post since I returned.

[seattleweatherguy]

I dont' buy the metro freezing rain yet but I do buy this area for the most probable in need of an Ice Storm Warning so I hope they do not sit on this - -

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2714g-1000x666.jpg

do you buy the 1 to 3 inches for the seattle metro area?

[KMartin]

do you buy the 1 to 3 inches for the seattle metro area?

Yeah looks like that's the amount I would go for later Saturday into Sunday morning before changing over to all rain.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yeah looks like that's the amount I would go for later Saturday into Sunday morning before changing over to all rain.

Is it too early for timing? I will be in marrysville until 11pm Sat and it looks like the drive back to bothell will be snowy?

[GHweatherChris]

I think the system for tomorrow will be 3-4 hours ahead of scheduled(progged by models).

[KMartin]

Is it too early for timing? I will be in marrysville until 11pm Sat and it looks like the drive back to bothell will be snowy?

If I had to do or die now and not wait for morning (not a smart move on my part) I'd say snowy then.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF says precip will be very late tomorrow night and very light... and conditions are pretty marginal in Seattle at the time.

[KMartin]

I think at this point the CMC should be used.

[HighlandExperience]

I think at this point the CMC should be used.

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you feel gives the CMC more weight in this situation? 

[KMartin]

Just out of curiosity, what do you feel gives the CMC more weight in this situation? 

The EC at this time yesterday for today's pattern showed Seattle getting snow by now and it also did not show the Ice Storm Event for the Willamette Valley tomorrow.  It was poor in handling the system ... GFS did pretty well at 0z for today and tonight's actual outlook so GFS would actually be good to follow for tomorrow.  NAM is real poor overall ...  CMC is in-line with the GFS and did good at handling today and tonight so far at 0z the previous day.  So based on that I'm just following the trend.

[KMartin]

HRRR and RUC are initializing poorly to what the GFS and CMC say should happen tomorrow.  So I'd just keep with both the GFS/CMC and let the HRRR/RUC play catch up.

[Alex_Snakes]

00Z ECMWF says precip will be very late tomorrow night and very light... and conditions are pretty marginal in Seattle at the time.

I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Agreed, I am up to 34 here and am having hard time seeing snow or much of it. YES I know the air is dry but ultimately I just want all of this over with. I am not looking forward to an ice storm, or a rapid snow to rain transition which is what we are looking at, at this point. Okay, I feel better now.

[HighlandExperience]

I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now.

 

temps are dropping again and Dew points are currently in the teens. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[brody]

I am already above freezing in Tacoma. I have a tough time believing we will see snow now.

Yup and a lot more locations around the sound are either just below or very NEAR freezing

[Guest Winterdog]

It's another cold one here tonight, 20F with a DP of 14F after a high of 33. Looking for a bit of snow tomorrow night.

[Tyler Mode]

Here are images from yesterday.

 

The first was when the snow first started after 8 AM.

 

Then the other was around 6 pm after 6" of snow.

 

7.3" total yesterday, 1/2" today.

 

Tomorrow afternoon and evening is looking quite a bit more moist!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Heavy beer drinking warning just issued for parts of western Washington.

[GHweatherChris]

What a ******* dissapointment tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy beer drinking warning just issued for parts of western Washington.

Duly noted, and accomplished.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One thing is for sure. This is the most cold air I have ever seen around here and the least amount of snow I've ever seen here. But its it over yet.

[luvssnow_spokane]

One thing is for sure. This is the most cold air I have ever seen around here and the least amount of snow I've ever seen here. But its it over yet.

Hmmmm, you have not lived here long then?

[brody]

But its it over yet.

huh?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hmmmm, you have not lived here long then?

40 years. Never can remember 2 arctic blasts in one season with little to no snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

huh?

Not over yet. Phone makes wrong words.

[brody]

Not over yet. Phone makes wrong words.

ahh

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS is saying 2-4 inches overnight? I see no possible way for that to happen. 

[FroYoBro]

Had a great afternoon and evening in the snow. Probably added around 4 inches of new snow. It's 24 right now and the town looks like Alaska.

[Skagit Weather]

Down to 22F currently with a dp of 16. If I am lucky tonight might be my coldest night.