February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This place died real quick

I think people are scared.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This place died real quick

 

Yeah it sure did. People are going to bed early to get ready for the Super Big Game.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm here.  Just lurking...

[FroYoBro]

I'm waiting to see snowfall totals on the extended WRF.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm waiting to see snowfall totals on the extended WRF.

Me too.

[Weather101]

Hoping next weekend turns out. And hoping we see a few flurries tmrw

[TT-SEA]

Me too.

 

Me three.

 

Even if it doesn't show impressive snow... I know the pattern is much more favorable and it will catch up if the 00Z GFS has the basic pattern correct.

[GHweatherChris]

Me three.

 

Even if it doesn't show impressive snow... I know the pattern is much more favorable and it will catch up if that 00Z GFS has the basic pattern correct.

I want it to show widespread 6-12 inches.

[brody]

I want it to show widespread 6-12 inches.

Screw that..I want this Feb to go down as one of the coldest and snowiest of the last 30 - 40+ years

 

I want minimum 14" or more 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Screw that..I want this Feb to go down as one of the coldest and snowiest of the last 30 - 40+ years

 

I want minimum 14" or more

 

check out the old forum. I made a post saying biggest snow storm in 400 years.

[GHweatherChris]

Screw that..I want this Feb to go down as one of the coldest and snowiest of the last 30 - 40+ years

 

I want minimum 14" or more 

I am with ya on that, but if it shows 6-12 now I think it will increase as the week goes on.

[brody]

check out the old forum. I made a post saying biggest snow storm in 400 years.

I remember that post VERY well

[brody]

I am with ya on that, but if it shows 6-12 now I think it will increase as the week goes on.

Couldn't agree with you more and you make a valid point, I would rather see the snow amounts go up as opposed to going down.

[Skagit Weather]

The fun continues with the models. I went skiing today up at Mount Baker tried to get caught up at some points throughout the day, but I sometimes like to hold off posting until I get home. Really hoping that this blast delivers all the goods, although I am a little scared about being stuck in the rain/snow shadow up here. I have been burned in this location by quite a few overrunning events where my location sits in the precipitation hole for hours until it is too warm and we only get some light rain. Hoping for the best though.

[Skagit Weather]

What type of lows are we looking at in the outlying areas? If this really ends up being colder than Decembers it seems like single digits could be likely, especially for the normal cold spots. It seems like the NWS is going for the mid-teens in most areas, but that seems to be a little conservative.

[brody]

What type of lows are we looking at in the outlying areas? If this really ends up being colder than Decembers it seems like single digits could be likely, especially for the normal cold spots. It seems like the NWS is going for the mid-teens in most areas, but that seems to be a little conservative.

I think single digits are not of the question Wednesday and Thursday mornings especially in the wind sheltered areas and those not exposed to outflow winds

 

Tim's area will likely be the warmest being a** up against the gap/s

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

check out the old forum. I made a post saying biggest snow storm in 400 years.[/quoteSomeone changed the title. Wtf. Now it says wishcasting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Guest Winterdog]

Ensembles down to -17 at Seattle. Coldest yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles.

 

Portland Mean temp is around -14.5c, so a slight touch colder than 18z. Looks like we stay colder a tad longer with 0c until the 10th, then it dips back down to -2c to -3c until the 14th.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle - Mean temp is down to a staggering -17c! WOW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[whitechristmas]

Well, Mark Nelsen has 1 snowflake for Saturday on his 7 day for PDX. With all the exciting talk on the forum I thought I'd see more? Of course it's much better than Accuweather's 48 degrees! Good grief! 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Well, Mark Nelsen has 1 snowflake for Saturday on his 7 day for PDX. With all the exciting talk on the forum I thought I'd see more? Of course it's much better than Accuweather's 48 degrees! Good grief! 

He lost the other ones. 

[TT-SEA]

This is the benefit of more offshore flow for next Saturday.      Big difference.     

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.165.0000.gif

[brody]

Never trust Accuweather

 

They make the Weather Channel look professional

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wonder if 3 ft is possible in places this weekend? Lol

[epiceast]

Could be a close call for snow on the coast tomorrow evening as well... WRF is really close.

Hopefully more than the coast. Some superbowl snow would be nice. I don't understand why are we focused on an overrunning storm a week away. Plenty of things can happen before that, chances of it turning out like December are under 25%.

[Guest Monty67]

I wonder if 3 ft is possible in places this weekend? Lol

Well if its going to be the biggest snow storm in 400 years, it is going to have to be more than 3 ft up here.

[Skagit Weather]

Here it comes!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020200/images_d2/ww_snow24.168.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well if its going to be the biggest snow storm in 400 years, it is going to have to be more than 3 ft up here.

I can't believe they changed the name on my thread on the old forum.

[GHweatherChris]

Not real impressed with snow totals on WRF tonight, but thats ok, still a week away.

[TT-SEA]

Not real impressed with snow totals on WRF tonight, but thats ok, still a week away.

 

 

Need it to back down more on the strength of the flow... its getting there.      My guess is that it will get weaker than what is shown... but with plenty of moisture.

[epiceast]

Good storm for Vancouver BC... and that's about it

[GHweatherChris]

Need it to back down more on the strength of the flow... its getting there.    

Not worried.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF

PDX metro, East of I-205 and western Gorge
MAJOR east wind coming by Wednesday
4km Time-Height. 45-50kt wind barbs showing up below 950mb Wednesday. I can't imagine what it will be Saturday with a PDX-DLS of at least 11mb! wow.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/kpdx.th.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO HR 120 trough digs a tad slightly further offshore I think .

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f120.gif

[Guest Monty67]

I can't believe they changed the name on my thread on the old forum.

a*******, why would someone take the time to do that.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if I saw a foot of snow next weekend, 3ft would be nice but I doubt it.

 

Edit...And the WRF shows probably 8-12" for me.

[Jesse]

How did PDX hit 51 after 4pm today?

[Snow]

00z GFS shows a solid 15 hour window for snow/ice to fall and that's just the models. If they are too aggressive with the warming which has a great chance of happening, then a full days worth or even more of snow/ice is not out of the question.

[Guest Monty67]

How did PDX hit 51 after 4pm today?

I would have to assume sensor sabotage.

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS shows a solid 15 hour window for snow/ice to fall and that's just the models. If they are too aggressive with the warming which has a great chance of happening, then a full days worth or even more of snow/ice is not out of the question.

I think mid morning Saturday and lasting til at least Midnight.