PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Help is hard to find 

Indeed, especially in the automotive field. Still looking for one more technician and it's not easy. A good technician can make 120k a year and there's just not many out there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Major dumpage, but it has finally stopped raining. 

Yesterday: 3.96” (c’mon!)

Today: 0.69”

This Week: 7.11”

October: 12.50”

YTD: 71”

There is c-zone forming now... probably won't completely stop raining until later this afternoon.

[smerfylicious]

Still raining here. Sultan looked to still be experiencing minor flooding. 

May just keep under 6" for this event. Man the rain here got heavy at times...reminded me of a couple flash flood events I experienced abroad.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at 28.87 inches of rain for the year... which is 2.07 inches above normal.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Not sure if you are pointing out the area around SEA... but we have already shown that this map is incorrect because there are a few stations between SEA and OLM that have lots of missing data.   

SEA and OLM are both solidly above normal for the year.  

[TT-SEA]

The major stations in the SEA NWS coverage area are above normal for 2021 with the exception of BLI and its very close to normal there.  

HQM  +5.31

UIL +3.77

OLM +3.60

SEA +2.10 (including rain today so far)

BLI  -0.64

[LowerGarfield]

58F and rain here in our normally rain shadowed location an hour ago.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The major stations in the SEA NWS coverage area are above normal for 2021 with the exception of BLI and its very close to normal there.  

HQM  +5.31

UIL +3.77

OLM +3.60

SEA +2.10 (including rain today so far)

BLI  -0.64

And how about Cedar Lake and Palmer, the stations closest to where you actually live?

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if you are pointing out the area around SEA... but we have already shown that this map is incorrect because there are a few stations between SEA and OLM that have lots of missing data.   

SEA and OLM are both solidly above normal for the year.  

It's still below average precip for the year for most the region.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And how about Cedar Lake and Palmer, the stations closest to where you actually live?

Not sure... but probably close to normal after this month.   Not that it really matters out here.   Even 20 inches below normal for the year would still be 80 inches of rain.    Not exactly "dry".  

Here is the drought map before all of the heavy rain across western WA over the last 2 days.     Western WA is an island of normal or wetter than normal in a sea of drought.    This map is after the deluge in CA last week so they still have ground to make up.    Not really a north-south gradient any longer... just an isolated area of non-drought. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's still below average precip for the year for most the region.

Of course.   But not for most of western WA.   

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Of course.   But not for most of western WA.   

Not to change the subject but, why don't you have a rain gauge?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Not to change the subject but, why don't you have a rain gauge?

I should... but now I have someone on here reporting from my area.    

[MossMan]

.38” so far on the day, 7.10” for the month, 42.18 for the year. 
light rain and 44 degrees currently. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF still showing totally sunny conditions across all of western WA this weekend.   I was thinking we might get into a low cloud scenario with all of this moisture around... but the ECMWF shows sunny conditions right from the start both days even near the water and along the coast.    Might be just enough offshore flow to keep it clear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF still showing totally sunny conditions across all of western WA this weekend.   I was thinking we might get into a low cloud scenario with all of this moisture around... but the ECMWF shows sunny conditions right from the start both days even near the water and along the coast.    Might be just enough offshore flow to keep it clear.

I'm wondering if we will get clouds from that system meandering around SW Oregon. Either way it will be raining down here by early Monday morning. 

[snow drift]

38 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Major dumpage, but it has finally stopped raining. 

Yesterday: 3.96” (c’mon!)

Today: 0.69”

This Week: 7.11”

October: 12.50”

YTD: 71”

I couldn't tolerate that much rain. Wow!

[The Blob]

Got about .5" for this one imby

[TT-SEA]

Following the 4-week rule after an AR event might mean increased odds for a white Thanksgiving.    For some reason I am feeling a 2006 and 2010 type scenario for late November.    I could be totally wrong... but that just feels like the progression we are in right now.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm wondering if we will get clouds from that system meandering around SW Oregon. Either way it will be raining down here by early Monday morning. 

Yeah... could be some mid and high level clouds from Salem southward.     The ECMWF keeps it dry here on Monday as well with offshore flow continuing.     Although there will likely be much more in the way of high clouds up here that day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... could be some mid and high level clouds from Salem southward.     The ECMWF keeps it dry here on Monday as well with offshore flow continuing.     Although there will likely be much more in the way of high clouds up here that day.

Yeah Monday is a weak system, going mainly south. 

[snow drift]

Through 10/28, Spokane has received .83 inches of rain, and Spokane Valley has received .67 inches.  A few ants have lost their lives in very localized flooding.

[Anti Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Major dumpage, but it has finally stopped raining. 

Yesterday: 3.96” (c’mon!)

Today: 0.69”

This Week: 7.11”

October: 12.50”

YTD: 71”

Sounds quite soggy there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Wednesday system is delayed. Could get a dry mild day Wednesday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weak sauce. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Wednesday system is delayed. Could get a dry mild day Wednesday. 

Yeah... we might be able to get 5 consecutive dry days up here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how the moisture just keep disappearing from the models. I did predict a warmer/drier than average November, so I guess I should be glad. Overall down here October will end up about average with near average precip. Due to upsloping our precip will be above average. 

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weak sauce. 

Splitty

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wound up with 1.45” yesterday…and another 0.42” since midnight. Up to 5.36” for the month better than anticipated here but Weve seen bigger ARs here. 

You sound disappointed.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

You sound disappointed.

Lol I like my rain but I’m glad that it’s dry this weekend! Gonna be beautiful. 

[snow drift]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Following the 4-week rule after an AR event might mean increased odds for a white Thanksgiving.    For some reason I am feeling a 2006 and 2010 type scenario for late November.    I could be totally wrong... but that just feels like the progression we are in right now.

I would rather see a favorable pattern in December.

[ShawniganLake]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF still showing totally sunny conditions across all of western WA this weekend.   I was thinking we might get into a low cloud scenario with all of this moisture around... but the ECMWF shows sunny conditions right from the start both days even near the water and along the coast.    Might be just enough offshore flow to keep it clear.

Offshore flow looks to be pretty gusty at times.  Not sure about down there. But looks like 20-30mph for SW BC

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS tries to develop another AR around day 9-10. Koolllll 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Offshore flow looks to be pretty gusty at times.  Not sure about down there. But looks like 20-30mph for SW BC

Yeah... might be pretty gusty here as well by Saturday night and Sunday. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS tries to develop another AR around day 9-10. Koolllll 

Hopefully it will be Oregon's turn next time.

[Randyc321]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Following the 4-week rule after an AR event might mean increased odds for a white Thanksgiving.    For some reason I am feeling a 2006 and 2010 type scenario for late November.    I could be totally wrong... but that just feels like the progression we are in right now.

I would give up traveling to see family in Eastern Wa. if we could have snow here.  Let the passes be closed due to historic November snows!

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS tries to develop another AR around day 9-10. Koolllll 

I was looking at the updated Weather Channel November forecast. It looks like strong southerly flow into the PNW.

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/november-temperature-outlook

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Personally I would prefer either dry weather or to just get slammed by storm after storm. Mild drippy weather is essentially purgatory. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As boring as the next 7-10 days look, the long range GFS looks fantastic. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weak sauce. 

That's about 1000 miles north of where yesterday had it.