PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ALERT

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummmm....

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS ALERT

This map puts Garfield/Asotin in the blue.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something to watch...

[RentonHill]

Mushrooms coming in HOT

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What the fuckk?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm guessing this is some sort of anafrontal setup in the long range? That's 1 of 2 ways we can have snow here. The other is a CCG mountain wave event.

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Something to watch...

Very nice

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm guessing this is some sort of anafrontal setup in the long range? That's 1 of 2 ways we can have snow here. The other is a CCG mountain wave event.

I’m more familiar with Anal Posterior setups, how does an Anal Frontal differ?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

50 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I was looking at the updated Weather Channel November forecast. It looks like strong southerly flow into the PNW.

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/november-temperature-outlook

They said though that temps on the PNW would be a bit below average as the southerly flow is to the east of us, so we are still on the cool side.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm guessing this is some sort of anafrontal setup in the long range? That's 1 of 2 ways we can have snow here. The other is a CCG mountain wave event.

Yeah, it's the low going by to the south with a strong baroclinic zone to the north of the low, not quite an anafront, but cold air coming from the north of the low with a massive precip shield and heavy precip rates. 0.0001% chance of happening, but fun to see. That is a VERY VERY cold trough for mid-November. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I’m more familiar with Anal Posterior setups, how does an Anal Frontal differ?

I’ll see myself out

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ummmm....

Party at My Location!!!

[Phil]

On 10/28/2021 at 12:08 PM, Timmy_Supercell said:

I don't believe I've ever had fog in the upper 40's, but I suppose it depends on the exact conditions!

Supposedly Phil can have 80's and fog. 

In 2011 we had 84° pea soup fog after a thunderstorm.

[Phil]

On 10/28/2021 at 1:18 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Stuff like this makes me all warm and fuzzy. 

Rain?

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the rains finally wrapping up  back home. Clouds are slowly eroding here. Looks like the final monthly total will be 5.42”. Before the AR I was thinking we would end up with 4.5-5” so better than expected. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F with some light rain.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What the fuckk?

Getting into clown range season now.

Winter must be close!

[snow drift]

23 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They said though that temps on the PNW would be a bit below average as the southerly flow is to the east of us, so we are still on the cool side.

If you look at the map, Eastern Washington is around average or maybe a little bit above. 

[Phil]

How that tree is alive with such a small root ball is beyond me.

 

[North_County]

I think some props are due to the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction team. One screenshot was taken two days before the crest, and the other after the crest. When you consider the insane amount of variables that have to go into these forecasts (including soil saturation, rainfall totals, snowmelt, just to name the very obvious ones), to nail the exact crest within 5 hours and 6 inches BEFORE IT HAD EVEN STARTED RAINING, is simply incredible. It's easy to remember busted forecasts, but I think we take for granted how talented the people at these services actually are.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s pretty chilly up here…47 and a decent NE breeze going. Might struggle getting into the mid 50s and it’ll probably be a cold night. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

I would rather see a favorable pattern in December.

At least late November has low sun angles.

Mid November to mid January is the best time to get snow, in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Sun!!

Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.   

[crf450ish]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I can hear the water roaring down the ridge here from inside the house.  

But I don't think the flooding is too bad down in the valley because I don't see any announcements about school closures... at least not yet.

Being right next to the mountains... the river rises fast and drops fast out here during these events.   You can already see the drop starting on the blue line even though its still raining.    

In February 2020, the Snoqualmie River up there in the Tanner area near the truck stops was crazy! Insane amounts of water rushing through per second! 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

I’ll see myself out

Tell the front (as ourfive year old would now say) "no one wants to see you naked." Lol

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows western BC and western WA being the driest places in terms of anomalies over the next 10 days... makes sense given the impressive amount of rain that has fallen recently.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least late November has low sun angles.

Mid November to mid January is the best time to get snow, in my opinion.

I agree. I wouldn’t mind some snow around Thanksgiving, just the way our upper level patterns typically go, we are more likely to have a good snow producing pattern here in early March than late November.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a considerable amount of sun for western WA over the next 10 days.    The only day that has low and mid level clouds on this run is next Thursday.     It still shows it being totally sunny over the weekend and then partly sunny with high clouds at times most of the remaining days on this run.    Pretty impressive for early November.

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I wouldn’t mind some snow around Thanksgiving, just the way our upper level patterns typically go, we are more likely to have a good snow producing pattern here in early March than late November.

It's crazy that I've seen it snow through most of or all of March on several occasions but that's impossible in November. 

[Kayla]

I'm feeling the late week two into week three November period for a cold/arctic shot.

Long range guidance has been hinting at it for a while and now it's starting to get into the medium range guidance. As @DJ Droppin would say, Book It!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Full EC run

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

If you look at the map, Eastern Washington is around average or maybe a little bit above. 

Wouldn't be above normal here if Western Washington is below normal.  Doesn't work that way.  That map is not exact anyway.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Full EC run

The mean trough position has shifted farther west... trough aren't digging into the west 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I'm feeling the late week two into week three November period for a cold/arctic shot.

Long range guidance has been hinting at it for a while and now it's starting to get into the medium range guidance. Book it!

My money is on week 3... leading up to Thanksgiving. 

[GHweatherChris]

11/21/2021

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

11/21/2021

That would be exactly 4 weeks after the major AR hit California...

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Kayla said:

That would be exactly 4 weeks after the major AR hit California...

And its the date I predicted weeks ago.

[Kayla]

12z EPS is also hinting that the Pacific shuts down with a WPAC and NPAC ridge bridge occurring late in the second week of November...

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows western BC and western WA being the driest places in terms of anomalies over the next 10 days... makes sense given the impressive amount of rain that has fallen recently.

 

Look at that storm track right through the south-central US.

If only it were January.