PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[snow drift]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah and our rainfall extremes are not from traditional PNW storms. Pretty sure some kind of supercell in the 60's or 80's hold our daily rain record. 

We're more likely to get heavy rain from convection here, too.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... there is not much of a difference in tangible weather when it rains all day and you get 1 inch or when you get 4 inches.   Its very wet either way! 

Good point. All day drizzle or light rain is like Chinese water torture from the sky.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

Good point. All day drizzle or light rain is like Chinese water torture from the sky.

Worst rain at a sports game I've attended was not downpours of rain, but a constant light rain/ drizzle for four hours in Berkeley against USC. It was never one strong cell, but after 4 hours my clothes were absolutely soaked through and I left early. I've watched games in T-storms and it is not the same as a light rain that just never stops.

[Meatyorologist]

Got this nugget on the 12z. Would be HEAVY wet snow with massive flakes. DGZ from 950mb-475mb, and further aggregation below.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

That station has been throwing me for a loop this morning, to the point that I checked my rain gauge for clogs this morning. I’m only at 0.89” for the day. C5316 (closest gauge to me) is only at 0.66”. Down in town, D4827 is at 0.94” and the Cedar Lake gauge is at 0.90”. But that gauge is at 1.74”. 
 

Interesting... maybe its a gauge issue there.

But either way its dumping rain and not going to end for another 24 hours so 4+ inches seems like a lock.

[TacomaWaWx]

Heatwave here up to 61…over 0.20” today. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows 5 days of basically dry weather (Sat-Wed) up here with just a little rain from a splitting system on Monday night.    

[The Blob]

Hard to believe next week is November 

[Chewbacca Defense]

The northern edge of the rain meandered south for a bit,  but it looks like the rain is filling in upstream of me, so I'm guessing the totals will start ticking up at a quicker pace again.  Currently up to .92" for the day and 47 degrees outside. 

 

Also, my space weather apps have been blowing up this morning with activity on the sun, so if we manage to get a CME headed this way, maybe it will time out well with this storm clearing out?  I have to admit I don't know anything about the alerts popping up, I mainly watch them for the Kp index...

[Deweydog]

High solar.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 54F now up to 70F and partly cloudy. Nice summer day!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The latest HRRR run limits PDX's rainfall to under .25'' for this event. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad and predictable. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let's see if we can make a run at the record high temp for today. 75F from 1987. Currently 71F in downtown Springfield.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

The Little Trough That Could (Climb Those Heights)

 

It looks quite anomalous. Can it bring rain?

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It looks quite anomalous. Can it bring rain?

Models aren't never not anomalous. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Models aren't never not anomalous. 

Spinning cheeseburgers are anomalous.

[T-Town]

I am right on the southeastern periphery of the rain. Alternating between drizzle, light and moderate rain. If this was snow I’d be pissed. But I feel like we’ll get plenty of rain. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48°F and rainy, rainy, rainy. 0.74" so far.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Also, my space weather apps have been blowing up this morning with activity on the sun, so if we manage to get a CME headed this way, maybe it will time out well with this storm clearing out?  I have to admit I don't know anything about the alerts popping up, I mainly watch them for the Kp index...

An aurora two-fer for October? Would be nice! Did you catch the one earlier this month?

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

High solar.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA is up to .70 for the day with much more rain coming... this event will easily solidify a significantly wetter than normal October.  

[BLI snowman]

Up to 65 here. Where's winter!?

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA is up to .70 for the day with much more rain coming... this event will easily solidify a significantly wetter than normal October.  

Good to see that the north/south gradient is back to its standard shenanigans. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Up to 65 here. Where's winter!?

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On the subject of the aurora borealis, the Kp index is not forecast to get higher than 4 this weekend. It was 6 on the 11th. So unless activity is higher than anticipated (could happen!) there won’t be anything to see this far south.

Aurora forecast: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast

Current Kp index: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

One typically needs a Kp of 6 or higher to get an aurora in Washington state.

[snow drift]

62 and windy here in Spokanistan. The leaves should be off the trees pretty soon.

[Deweydog]

Muggy out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 74F here. I think we're gonna break the daily record high temp.

The new normal.

[Chewbacca Defense]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

An aurora two-fer for October? Would be nice! Did you catch the one earlier this month?

I didn't, I was super tired that night, but if we get this one I'll definitely get out and try to see it.

[Omegaraptor]

70 in Corvallis

72 in Eugene

75 in Roseburg

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 74F here. I think we're gonna break the daily record high temp.

The new normal.

Ducky weather?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

47°F. Tiger’s current temp backwards!

0.79" and counting.

[Skagit Weather]

29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On the subject of the aurora borealis, the Kp index is not forecast to get higher than 4 this weekend. It was 6 on the 11th. So unless activity is higher than anticipated (could happen!) there won’t be anything to see this far south.

Aurora forecast: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast

Current Kp index: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

One typically needs a Kp of 6 or higher to get an aurora in Washington state.

I think they haven't quite updated the forecast yet because they're unsure of how exactly the charged particles that emerged from the sun and that cause the aurora borealis are directed. Currently it looks like the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) might miss Earth to the south, but they're still getting data in from the satellites. We'll probably have a better handle on it later today/tomorrow when they'll update the forecasts.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

70 in Corvallis

72 in Eugene

75 in Roseburg

The warm before the storm

[Blizzard777]

Just getting clipped from the main stream of moisture.  Light rain to moderate….currently moderate.  
.39 with blustery south winds 

[Deweydog]

Hopefully a taste of several days like today in November.

#settingthetable

[TT-SEA]

SEA finally reached 60.  

Up to .92 for this event there and 4.12 for the month now.    Should add another 1-2 inches to those numbers.   Normal rainfall for October at SEA is 3.91 inches and they should easily end up well over 5 inches.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Up to 1.12" and sitting at 48 degrees.  Lots of standing water in the back yard...absolute swamp.  I'm hoping to build a new deck next spring and run some drain lines while I'm at it.

[TacomaWaWx]

Had a white knuckle drive up to port Townsend…about to hop on the ferry…drive to anacortes and hopefully get on the ferry to orcas island tonight. Back up plan is to stay at deception pass and try again in the morning but I’m pretty sure I’ll make it. Just can’t miss out on the opportunity to get some nice weather up on orcas island on Halloween. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm humid day. Up to 63.