PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Fircrest]

Just now, Phil said:

Upsides/downsides. The one that just hit here ruined the foliage season before it peaked. More than half of trees were stripped bare, the ones that weren’t are still fully green (mostly oaks). 

Yeah we were fortunate to hit coastal Maine at peak color, but the Boston area was still pretty green.  Probably mostly bare now with the high winds that just went through!

[T-Town]

15 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

We missed a Nor'easter by a week. Kind of disappointed...

Portsmouth was a nice city.

I’m back there a lot for work and always stay downtown. Lots of restaurants and right on the river. 

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Yeah we were fortunate to hit coastal Maine at peak color, but the Boston area was still pretty green.  Probably mostly bare now with the high winds that just went through!

Those are great fall color shots. I’ve been in NH in the fall a few times but never at the peak. 

[T-Town]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Beautiful . Haven’t had a scene like that here since 2016.

Can get a lot more intense than that video, too!

 

That was a pretty good storm even for there but they definitely took it in stride. Nothing they haven’t seen many times before. 

[Timmy Supercell]

58 and mostly sunny, feels like 63-64 in the direct sunlight. 

In exchange for these shots, I'd like to see some foggy soupy pictures from some of our Washington members please! 

[Timmy Supercell]

43 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’ve posted this before but figured I’d bring it out for an encore since we’re talking about New England and getting excited about snow. This is a nor’easter in Portsmouth NH. 

IMG_0682.MOV

The file doesn't seem to load, do you have a youtube account? Sorry to ask.

[RentonHill]

Heres the hose on 18z GFS

 

[Timmy Supercell]

26 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Also spent some time in Acadia a week and a half ago.  Unfortunately it rained or was cloudy for most of the time. But did get some pics of fall colors.

Even with the clouds, that view you got is really cool!

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is going nuts with January lately.  The control had an awesome 0z and 12z run while the ensemble (which is only run on the 0z) was great the last two days.  The average of the control over the last 10 days has a cold look, but nothing like this.

 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

The file doesn't seem to load, do you have a youtube account? Sorry to ask.

No. This forum is about as close as i get to social media.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

58 and mostly sunny, feels like 63-64 in the direct sunlight. 

In exchange for these shots, I'd like to see some foggy soupy pictures from some of our Washington members please! 

I'll trade you.  It has been a gloom fest here lately.  The first half of this month was awesome with all of the chilly weather, but the recent pattern sucks.

[TacomaWaWx]

19 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

58 and mostly sunny, feels like 63-64 in the direct sunlight. 

In exchange for these shots, I'd like to see some foggy soupy pictures from some of our Washington members please! 

This weekend out here in the south sound. Haven’t had much sunshine since Friday afternoon and even that was brief. 

[snow_wizard]

51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I asked her about that and she doesn't think the market in Maple Valley will move much. Even if they increase interest rates a bit at the start of next year, MV is such a hot commodity (the school district here is a HUGE selling point for most families) that she doesn't expect the price to budge much between now and then. 

At least with our place the value of the property skyrocketed over the past year.  Not sure if it was due to a rezone or what.  The property value being so high may possibly make the house value not so subject to fluctuation.  Not sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

56/47 today…looks like the rain will be back soon after a long 8 hour departure. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, snow drift said:

December 1983 was pretty wild.

True.  Another one that was cold for a large part of the country.  Certainly VERY cold here.  The SEA records don't do it justice.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

56/47 today…looks like the rain will be back soon after a long 8 hour departure. 

I'm ready for the break coming up.

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The CFS is going nuts with January lately.  The control had an awesome 0z and 12z run while the ensemble (which is only run on the 0z) was great the last two days.  The average of the control over the last 10 days has a cold look, but nothing like this.

 

It's due.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's due.

No doubt about that.  I have a feeling when we break the ice so to speak we will probably have several over the following decade.

[Cloud]

AR. This one mark what? The 3rd to hit the West Coast in as many days. This one is taking a direct aim at us. What a way to close out October. 

[T-Town]

23 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This weekend out here in the south sound. Haven’t had much sunshine since Friday afternoon and even that was brief. 

I like the shot of the old boardwalk or whatever it is. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, snow drift said:

December 1983 was pretty wild.

That was a top 3 snowy December here, just under 1992 and 1952. The only 3 that have totaled 36" or more. 

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Heres the hose on 18z GFS

 

There could be a 4-6 hour break in the rain during the middle of the day tomorrow that you miss when running 6hr precip loop.   Likely comes with strong south winds and warm temps during that period.

[Deweydog]

Raining out!

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's due.

Then again I can’t recall the CFS ever accurately forecasting any winter month closer than -28 days in advance. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4:15 PM Radar Update

It's raining.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F with some light rain.

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah 1970-71 was a great winter. Not extreme on the cold, but that cold snap in late February/early March was record breaking in some areas. Great January snow event too. 

November 22nd, 1970 must have been a significant Willamette Valley ice storm? I see SLE was 31/27 that day with 0.63" of precip. 

Yep, that storm had significant icing throughout the area with a backdoor blast. 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Then again I can’t recall the CFS ever accurately forecasting any winter month closer than -28 days in advance. 

Exactly. It's due.

[snow_wizard]

I think Phil has a good point about December being crucial to this winter working out (assuming the -QBO ever does make it to the 50mb level and below).  The reason I say that is because the -QBO/-ENSO winters that have worked out well for us had at least modest cold weather in December.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. It's due.

I'm kind of intrigued the CFS is so bullish on January in spite of the pattern we're in now.  Quite often the stuff 3 months out looks like the same pattern we are currently in.  Not the case by a long shot this time.

I should also add that model has also been looking chilly for December.

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Fircrest said:

Also spent some time in Acadia a week and a half ago.  Unfortunately it rained or was cloudy for most of the time. But did get some pics of fall colors.

Looks like you were there just after I left. I missed peak colors by a bit I imagine.

[snow_wizard]

The gloom has gotten considerably gloomier over the past hour.  Looks like the rain is about to set in.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The gloom has gotten considerably gloomier over the past hour.  Looks like the rain is about to set in.

Not raining here yet... but its definitely raining in Issaquah so it won't be long.

 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That was a top 3 snowy December here, just under 1992 and 1952. The only 3 that have totaled 36" or more. 

That one was just downright cold up here. 

[Thunder98]

Could we see a December 2013 type of cold wave impacting the West Coast with the right atmosphere set up? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Rainstorm420 said:

Could we see a December 2013 type of cold wave impacting the West Coast with the right atmosphere set up? 

I'll take one of those to go. Will probly be back for a Jan 1950 and 1969 also.

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Rainstorm420 said:

Could we see a December 2013 type of cold wave impacting the West Coast with the right atmosphere set up? 

Something between extremes. Dec 2013 was insanely cold for the entire northwest but it wasn't a pack producer much. 

It only snowed one day the whole month if I remember right. 

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of intrigued the CFS is so bullish on January in spite of the pattern we're in now.  Quite often the stuff 3 months out looks like the same pattern we are currently in.  Not the case by a long shot this time.

I should also add that model has also been looking chilly for December.

How's it look for November?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Driving south on I 5. Raining down to about creswell. Going to pick up another dog.  

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like you were there just after I left. I missed peak colors by a bit I imagine.

 

It looks like peak was around the 20th.  It seemed like colors were a little late there this year due to a wetter summer and warm fall overall.