PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phishy Wx]

are we in meso model time frames yet?  then it's like serious and stuff

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't even begin to describe how much I love the 18z...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are we in meso model time frames yet?  then it's like serious and stuff

That goes out to 84 hours or less, depending on the model.  UW has a higher resolution model for the PNW only that goes out to 180 hours and is based on the GFS.  Not sure if that is truly a meso model.

[Omegaraptor]

Corvallis hit 60 today. Looks like we will rack up 5 of these in a row.

[Deweydog]

PDX hasn’t been below 50 degrees since 5am on 11/26.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We haven't been below 47 in 4 days now... Pretty ridiculously sustained warmth. 

[Outpost54]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

It’s the GFS. That’s why.  

Tbh I think people are under estimating the new GFS. Don't forget it was upgraded like a year ago. Ever since then, it has pretty clearly led the way with almost every "extreme" event we've had in the last year, while the Euro has played catch-up. Remember the GFS picked up on our absurd heat wave first, and the big snow storm in February.

 

I don't think it's totally insane anymore to give the GFS more credit than the euro in cases like this. The new upgrade seems to be a genuine Improvement.

[snow_wizard]

That was one cold 18z run.  The thing I really like is the short term stuff has trended colder today.  Let the fun begin!

In the longer range the EPS PNA forecast was even lower on the 12z with EPO dropping to zero at mid month.

[van city]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are we in meso model time frames yet?  then it's like serious and stuff

Here you go. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Outpost54 said:

Tbh I think people are under estimating the new GFS. Don't forget it was upgraded like a year ago. Ever since then, it has pretty clearly led the way with almost every "extreme" event we've had in the last year, while the Euro has played catch-up. Remember the GFS picked up on our absurd heat wave first, and the big snow storm in February.

 

I don't think it's totally insane anymore to give the GFS more credit than the euro in cases like this. The new upgrade seems to be a genuine Improvement.

I agree.  It has been way better than the ECMWF on precip amounts recently as well.  The GFS is just one decent to good run after another now.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  It has been way better than the ECMWF on precip amounts recently as well.  The GFS is just one decent to good run after another now.

We’ve seen the gfs way over so cold though still. I wouldn’t count on this working out just yet but the trends are good for now. 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, van city said:

Here you go. 

Looks like Rain

 

here comes the rain

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS shows SEA getting 5 inches of snow just 4 days out now.

At the very least a decent cold air mass is only a few days out now.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve seen the gfs way over so cold though still. I wouldn’t count on this working out just yet but the trends are good for now. 

The EPS has been good too.  At least a somewhat cold pattern is looking pretty likely.  

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of the EPS the snowfall mean jumped from just under an inch to 2.5 inches for SEA 0z vs 12z.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has been good too.  At least a somewhat cold pattern is looking pretty likely.  

No doubt the 2nd half of the month will be colder than the 1st half.

[snow drift]

Can't wait to see the 00z model suites.

[snow_wizard]

Just looked at the 500mb maps from the EPS, and am quite pleased.  It also appears the AK cold is beginning to get displaced late in the run, and dropping through BC.  The signal is getting very strong for something good.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

No doubt the 2nd half of the month will be colder than the 1st half.

The first half doesn't look half bad either.  Pretty legit cold shot late this week and early next week.

[catnip]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looked at the 500mb maps from the EPS, and am quite pleased.  It also appears the AK cold is beginning to get displaced late in the run, and dropping through BC.  The signal is getting very strong for something good.

Patience. Don't get too excited just yet. While there are some positive signs, we have all seen this go to cr*p plenty of times before.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Can't wait to see the 00z model suites.

a reality dose or meet in the middle?

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, catnip said:

Patience. Don't get too excited just yet. While there are some positive signs, we have all seen this go to cr*p plenty of times before.

And of course the best model is still showing absolute garbage

[snow_wizard]

I see Phil is still in denial.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Oh my god.

Tuesday's snow level.

Am I hallucinating?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I see Phil is still in denial.

How many times have I warned you about spiking the football at the 20 yard line? I remember you proclaiming January 2020 as the arctic blast of the century about a week before it completely busted for 90% of our membership...

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has been good too.  At least a somewhat cold pattern is looking pretty likely.  

There has been some really positive signals so far…but we all know how fast it can change even within 72 hours.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

And of course the best model is still showing absolute garbage

The best is the EPS and it's looking quite good.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Oh my god.

Tuesday's snow level.

Am I hallucinating?

Snow levels will be much lower than that up here.  I think those are high for your area too after Thursday.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

And it doesn't really go anywhere through the end of the run. December 2008 anyone?

It just gets better as the month goes on.  I like how slowly this all unfolds.

Interestingly if you look at the GFS meteograms it shows highs in the upper 30 by Sunday, then a big two day spike a few days later, and then colder again.  Classic behavior before a big event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd be really surprised to see a full on arctic blast in the next 2-3 weeks. Just no real signs of the amplification necessary for such a thing. Doesn't mean we won't see a cool/troughy period, but I think any kind of real arctic air will be later in the month/January. 

[T-Town]

31 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Looks like Rain

 

here comes the rain

 

[snow_wizard]

This temperature drop coming up is going to be very noticeable.  I'm getting very excited just for the initial cold shot Thursday night.

BTW the 18z ECMWF looked slightly improved for the first shortwave to dig a bit deeper than previous runs.

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I see Phil is still in denial.

Oh, Jim…

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd be really surprised to see a full on arctic blast in the next 2-3 weeks. Just no real signs of the amplification necessary for such a thing. Doesn't mean we won't see a cool/troughy period, but I think any kind of real arctic air will be later in the month/January. 

The ECMWF weeklies were heavily implying the period around the 20th or so.

[Cloud]

A little bit of personal news on my end… I haven’t been able to be around the forums or been active as much last few weeks because we’ve been busy working with an agent in looking for a new house. Just today we put in a bid for a nice/decent house over in the Spokane area. We honestly don’t know if we’ll end up getting the bid but I’m excited at the prospect of going to a location that will feature more snowy weather in the wintertime. 

If this don’t work out we’ll continue to keep looking. I love W. Wa but I want to be where I can get cold/snow during the right season. 

[snow drift]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The first half doesn't look half bad either.  Pretty legit cold shot late this week and early next week.

We're near 60 on the 1st and in the 50s on the 2nd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of people moving to Spokane it seems. 

[snow drift]

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

a reality dose or meet in the middle?

Cold water to the face...I did winterize the car. I flushed the radiator, got a new battery, replaced my tires, and had my front breaks serviced. Let's go!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies were heavily implying the period around the 20th or so.

Works for me. For personal reasons I would prefer it not to happen between the 15-19th. 

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Stronger signal for troughing over the PNW around the 10th on the 18z vs 12z GEFS.

The trends have been nothing but good today.