bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS seems to have narrowed the precip shield as opposed to a north or a south shift. The end result is less snow for most but it definitely didn’t shift the heavy bands further north like the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 It figures the GFS wouldn't move an inch, not that I expected it to. The NWS offices will likely consider the NAM an easy throw-away. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Yeah that run stunk for me on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Absolutely brutal cutoff on the northern edge of this storm for us Nebraska folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, mlgamer said: The morning trend is north. Heck, there is still time to turn this into a Dakotas Special...lol GFS looks good I think this storm is all good for KC. The NAM gave KC 1.5in of sleet with no change over, that seems suspicious. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Feels like straw-grasping time for Omaha getting above 6" - in that spirit, 12z GEFS mean QPF did tick higher locally, with that wetter change evident into southeast Nebraska and Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 12z GEFS mean is maybe a little wetter. Ensembles are beginning to lock in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I see the NWS is predicting 2-3" here. Going to guess we don't end up getting that. Never feel very confident on the northern edge cutoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Canadian with 11” for iowa city. Yes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Wasn’t the Canadian way south last run or two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS op 0" for me and NAM with 10". What could go wrong? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, james1976 said: GFS op 0" for me and NAM with 10". What could go wrong? A lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 UK with 6.8" at 10:1 for Iowa City. With a relatively conservative 14:1 ratio instead that's 9.5" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 The GFS and UK are also zero vs several inches for areas like Ames and Waterloo. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 The UK is just about perfect for my area. Definitely the best run from any model so far in the past day. Hopefully the Euro follows suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Lmao, poor Sioux City has been getting the shaft every winter since they scored big in 2017-18. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS and UK are also zero vs several inches for areas like Ames and Waterloo. Yeah thats my concern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, bud2380 said: HRRR also much quicker and on the north side of solutions. Has snow falling in eastern iowa before sunrise Saturday when the model run ends. I would be very careful with looking the the CAMs this far in advance from the beginning of the storm.. HRRR tends to be good about 6-8 hours max before the storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 looks like our 2 year winter storm watch futility streak is coming to an end 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 As the Euro begins, here's the last 2 runs for comparison. 6z 00z - both show exactly 7.7" for Iowa City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro coming in weaker and lower qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, bud2380 said: As the Euro begins, here's the last 2 runs for comparison. 6z 00z - both show exactly 7.7" for Iowa City From this map the Euro is trending south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Track stayed almost identical, but weakened considerably. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 About 1-4" less generally in most areas. Iowa City went from 7.7" each of the last 2 runs to 4.7". That's disappointing as we get near the storm to see it weakening that considerably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 It sucks to end the morning model suite with a dog Euro run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Can only hope the euro trends back stronger. It had been rock steady too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Looks like a solid 4-8 event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Ride that 12z NAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 39 minutes ago, james1976 said: Ride that 12z NAM! I am I am!! Lol. Honestly, I don't know what to think right now. My forecast is 50% chance snow...accumulation from 0-10 inches lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Who’s ready for another shift south on the NAM? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 NWS Omaha extends the Winter Storm Watch to cover Douglas & Sarpy counties; watch text indicates 2-5" so probably an impact-based watch instead of an amounts-based watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Who’s ready for another shift south on the NAM? Watch it be bigly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Updated NWS Omaha graphic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Can't complain that this storm turned into a mini. I will still take 3" of powder. Just couldn't slow down enough. stretched out and weakening for SMI. Our weather office said last night don't trust the lollipop totals models are showing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 NAM. South. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM. South. I'd say sharper cutoff. Still 6 inches or more in Des Moines and IC. Half of Dallas county (just west of Des Moines)gets warning snows. Other half, barely advisory. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 11” IMBY. Hard to believe anything the NAM puts out with its constantly changing solutions. But that would be a best case scenario here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 3k NAM would be great by me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Nam looks great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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