PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS 850s

The pulsating egg is back! 

[RentonHill]

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Renton/416-Renton-Ave-S-98057/home/229893?utm_medium=share&utm_source=web_share&utm_campaign=copy

@SouthHillFrosty be my almost neighbor

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

Debbie H Downer here says wet snow only. booo

[Jbolin]

Official prediction from me. 

 

W. Wa/Or will start to see snow chances appearing in higher res models between Jan 24th and Jan 27th with a likely widespread event around the the Jan 30th to Feb 1st time-frame. 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Debbie H Downer here says wet snow only. booo

He’s probably right about not going full on Arctic. Not too often we get 2 separate Arctic events in the same winter. I think any snow we see next month would be the 30-33 degree type which is typical here. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Debbie H Downer here says wet snow only. booo

We are not allowed to get excited.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

We are not allowed to get excited.

I think most of us in the Puget sound area will see 3-4 ~34/30 temp spread days with 1 or 2 rounds of light snow accumulations early next month. Will probably be different than that but that’s just what I imagine happening. Which will probably somehow end up being 3 sub freezing highs and 18 inches of snow at your house. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do think there is some potential for arctic air the first week of February. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do think there is some potential for arctic air the first week of February. 

Would be the first time since 2013-2014 to get 2 separate Arctic events if we did. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Would be the first time since 2013-2014 to get 2 separate Arctic events if we did. 

But way more snow this time! 2006-07 is my dream double dip! 

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

850s  arent as good compared to 00z 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very chilly CFS run.

[Meatyorologist]

It’s not that insane to get two arctic events in one winter. Also saying it’s less likely to get arctic air because we’ve already seen it is just....not how probability works.

[jakerepp]

Am I one of the cool kids now?

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Am I one of the cool kids now?

You would have been ultra special 2yrs ago today! 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It’s not that insane to get two arctic events in one winter. Also saying it’s less likely to get arctic air because we’ve already seen it is just....not how probability works.

It's pretty routine actually to see two or more arctic airmasses at least infiltrate the region in the cold season. Just the extent to which they do so can greatly vary. Obviously it's always far more likely to see a northern based Fraser River event or a backdoor scrape-by as opposed to a full regionwide event.

But even take a crappy cold season like 2019-20. It still had the mid January Fraser River arctic airmass and then the mid March airmass which was arctic in origin (high of 23 in Spokane, 36 in Bellingham with strong offshore flow). Not to mention all the fall action in September/October 2019 which was effectively arctic air.

Or look at 2014-15, which had three airmasses that were distinctly arctic in origin. Mid November, the end of November, and then the end of December. Certainly nothing that saved the winter, but multiple opportunities were still there at times.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Am I one of the cool kids now?

Congrats!!

[jakerepp]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Congrats!!

Thanks!

[Timmy Supercell]

37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Would be the first time since 2013-2014 to get 2 separate Arctic events if we did. 

I was surprised how dry that winter was though considering it being a neutral. 

Didn't like the endless inversion and sunny days pretty much from October to February in K-Falls. March had felt like the first real wet month since September 2013.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s pretty telling when all 3 ensembles look pretty darn close to eachother at +300 hours. 

It's coming

 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

It's coming

 

i thihk you guys will be golden

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

i thihk you guys will be golden

we got some work to do if we're going to have the above average snowfall season everyone was expecting out of La Nina here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we got some work to do if we're going to have the above average snowfall season everyone was expecting out of La Nina here

I have a feeling late February and March will deliver. 

[TacomaWaWx]

26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's pretty routine actually to see two or more arctic airmasses at least infiltrate the region in the cold season. Just the extent to which they do so can greatly vary. Obviously it's always far more likely to see a northern based Fraser River event or a backdoor scrape-by as opposed to a full regionwide event.

But even take a crappy cold season like 2019-20. It still had the mid January Fraser River arctic airmass and then the mid March airmass which was arctic in origin (high of 23 in Spokane, 36 in Bellingham with strong offshore flow). Not to mention all the fall action in September/October 2019 which was effectively arctic air.

Or look at 2014-15, which had three airmasses that were distinctly arctic in origin. Mid November, the end of November, and then the end of December. Certainly nothing that saved the winter, but multiple opportunities were still there at times.

That is true…technically speaking 2014-2015 and 2019-2020 would count as multiple Arctic encounters. What I was meaning was an actual significant secondary event that effects a large part of the region or all of it. If we’re going by those type of events there’s 3 examples in the 21st century. 2006-2007, 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. Those types of winters are harder to come by. 
 It’s definitely possible we see something significant in terms of Arctic air next month…but IMO I think we see something like a more typical snow event next month (IF it happens). Not Arctic like December 2021. Would love to be wrong in my prediction though! 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

That is true…technically speaking 2014-2015 and 2019-2020 would count as multiple Arctic encounters. What I was meaning was an actual significant secondary event that effects a large part of the region or all of it. If we’re going by those type of events there’s 3 examples in the 21st century. 2006-2007, 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. Those types of winters are harder to come by. 
 It’s definitely possible we see something significant in terms of Arctic air next month…but IMO I think we see something like a more typical snow event next month (IF it happens). Not Arctic like December 2021. Would love to be wrong in my prediction though! 

Yeah, it's certainly a high likelihood that places Seattle-north have seen their coldest weather of the season. Another big event for them would put this winter in about the 95th percentile. 

Keeping that in mind though, low temps in southern WA, much of eastern WA, and throughout OR weren't too impressive with the round in late December. My low here was a pedestrian 23.

So just going off of climo there's a decent chance that something outperforms that in those parts of the region and another arctic airmass seems like a natural way to get there, albeit probably one with a different evolution than December. Probably a broader, less intense event that's a little more eastside focused would be my best guess.

[Timmy Supercell]

There were 3 separate instances KLMT had lows below zero spread out in '10-'11, first one being -4 on 11/24, then -1 on 12/31, and -4 on 2/26. A lot of winters there only do that twice and sometimes once. Or rarely like '20-'21, never does. In the last winter I spent there it had only a couple lows below 10 and never got colder than 8.

Edit: I wasn't actually counting the number of lows below 0; but rather different periods that feature lows below.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, it's certainly a high likelihood that places Seattle-north have seen their coldest weather of the season. Another big event for them would put this winter in about the 95th percentile. 

Keeping that in mind though, low temps in southern WA, much of eastern WA, and throughout OR weren't too impressive with the round in late December. My low here was a pedestrian 23.

So just going off of climo there's a decent chance that something outperforms that in those parts of the region and another arctic airmass seems like a natural way to get there, albeit probably one with a different evolution than December. Probably a broader, less intense event that's a little more eastside focused would be my best guess.

Yea, we need a NE gradient here down the Purcell Trench out of N ID, the true Backdoor blast if you will. The December one came from them N/NW and never got below 0 @KGEG

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, it's certainly a high likelihood that places Seattle-north have seen their coldest weather of the season. Another big event for them would put this winter in about the 95th percentile. 

Keeping that in mind though, low temps in southern WA, much of eastern WA, and throughout OR weren't too impressive with the round in late December. My low here was a pedestrian 23.

So just going off of climo there's a decent chance that something outperforms that in those parts of the region and another arctic airmass seems like a natural way to get there, albeit probably one with a different evolution than December. Probably a broader, less intense event that's a little more eastside focused would be my best guess.

Something more backdoor type that performs better in Oregon is what I was thinking. Even in those events we usually do fine up here too. 

[The Blob]

Whet day here.

[Deweydog]

I’m trying to remember what I was doing at THIS VERY MOMENT in 2019 and I can’t.

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not too often Tim’s had better weather than us for about a week now. Monday has been the only day with sunshine here recently. 

We even got a little bonus drizzle this afternoon….yuk!  I’m ready for some  sun or active weather now please!   

49*

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m trying to remember what I was doing at THIS VERY MOMENT in 2019 and I can’t.

I was outside with the kids/dogs and it appears my driveway contours were not up to par yet and my grass was not looking very good either.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I was outside with the kids/dogs and it appears my driveway contours were not up to par yet and my grass was not looking very good either.

Should I go destroy my landscaping?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should I go destroy my landscaping?

Yes! Whatever it takes to get another February 2019 going! I did check the thread, here was your insights for the day. 

[RentonHill]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m trying to remember what I was doing at THIS VERY MOMENT in 2019 and I can’t.

long covid?

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes! Whatever it takes to get another February 2019 going! I did check the thread, here was your insights for the day. 

whatever you do, dont re-post his comments about the bundy victims being the real winners in 1974 because they didnt have to endure some summer rain.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes! Whatever it takes to get another February 2019 going! I did check the thread, here was your insights for the day. 

Ground is sertainly squishy again today. But will it be enough???

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m trying to remember what I was doing at THIS VERY MOMENT in 2019 and I can’t.

Are you getting into the ITS COMING mode yet?

Its pretty much the only thing that is missing right now.