Phil Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 For some reason on my phone I can't go back to previous pages it takes me to the first page of the thread. Anyways, Phil I can't quote you so I'll just ask. You said the cold air entrenched up north is free to flow to the mid latitudes once the PV is broken. Do you have any idea when that may happen and potential areas it's likely to go?Well, the PV doesn't need to be obliterated to promote wave amplification/blocking (and the polar jet intrusions that coincide). It just needs to be weakened, and this can be achieved with a typical top-down wave-1 response to bombardment..we don't need a wave-2 (split) to do the trick. I suspect we'll need to wait until early/mid January for this to occur, perhaps a bit later. As for where the cold will go, that depends on a number of factors including timing and the specific nature of the wave bombardment and full-scale PV response. For you guys, the sooner this monster is slain, the better. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Most stations in the metro area and Willamette Valley hit 50 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 15/-8 in Burns today. 25/1 in Redmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Topped out at 40 up here, currently 34 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Well, the PV doesn't need to be obliterated to promote wave amplification/blocking (and the polar jet intrusions that coincide). It just needs to be weakened, and this can be achieved with a typical top-down wave-1 response to bombardment..we don't need a wave-2 (split) to do the trick. I suspect we'll need to wait until early/mid January for this to occur, perhaps a bit later. As for where the cold will go, that depends on a number of factors including timing and the specific nature of the wave bombardment and full-scale PV response. For you guys, the sooner this monster is slain, the better.Thanks for the answer. Just one more question, what type of pattern should we be looking for for that top down wave-1 response to occur? Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Most stations in the metro area and Willamette Valley hit 50 today. The coming days will be much colder though. I'm pretty confident of that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I ended up with 44-24 today. Solidly cold for this time of year. I'm not sure what caused places west of I-5 to get so much warmer today. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 50 at my house today. Surprised at how warm. There was just enough mixing to stir things up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 One of the nicest turkey days I can remember. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I ended up with 44-24 today. Solidly cold for this time of year. I'm not sure what caused places west of I-5 to get so much warmer today.Really? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 One of the nicest turkey days I can remember.We had almost identical weather Thanksgiving 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 The cold subsurface water under the Nino regions is making its move. It appears this Nino could collapse very suddenly when it does like it did in 1998. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq2_anm_155m.gifWhat would it mean for the northern hemisphere if this nino collapsed? I remember that winter was pretty bad. I lived in graham, wa and there was snow on the ground for 21 days. It was epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 We had almost identical weather Thanksgiving 2013. It was raining at Disneyland that day. We felt it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Anyone else on their way to go shopping? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Anyone else on their way to go shopping?That would be depressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 The ladies just left. Unreal. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Anyone else on their way to go shopping?Nah, I have a soul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Anyone else on their way to go shopping?No...way...in...hell. Watching Green Bay loosing, way better!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 On my way to the greatest city in the Northwest. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nah, I have a soul. I agree with this. the idea of stores opening on Thanksgiving is just plain wrong. For the record I also hate Black Friday. It has gotten to where Black Friday happens in the summer at various places and extends from early November to early December at many others. I wish the term had never been invented. In actuality it is what they called that fateful day in 1929. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 What would it mean for the northern hemisphere if this nino collapsed? I remember that winter was pretty bad. I lived in graham, wa and there was snow on the ground for 21 days. It was epic. No telling how it would play out. All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast. The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11. I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 -7 already at BNO Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nah, I have a soul.Sorry to burst your judgmental bubble but most employees love it. Make a ton of money on double time. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I agree with this. the idea of stores opening on Thanksgiving is just plain wrong. For the record I also hate Black Friday. It has gotten to where Black Friday happens in the summer at various places and extends from early November to early December at many others. I wish the term had never been invented. In actuality it is what they called that fateful day in 1929.All Fridays matter. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 So those that do go shopping are soulless?On Thanksgiving night? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 On Thanksgiving night? Yes.It's not Thanksgiving night. I guess I have no soul if I went shopping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 No telling how it would play out. All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast. The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11. I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case.2008-2008 was a very decent winter here though for snow. 2006-2009 (excluding the winter of 2009) all had very nice snow in it. We got spoiled then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Sorry to burst your judgmental bubble but most employees love it. Make a s**t ton of money on double time.Whatever helps you sleep at night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Pdx is at 32. Pendleton is at 12 already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Whatever helps you sleep at night.Warm anomalies mainly. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00Z GFS and Canadian are wetter again next week. GFS MOS also shows the inversion taking hold with high temps dropping through the weekend. Only 40 at SEA on Saturday. It has been showing this for the last few days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 No telling how it would play out. All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast. The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11. I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Wowzers! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Warm anomalies mainly.Knew it!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Knew it!!Oh wowzers!! You're a goddamn genius Gump!! Ironically, as you sit on your holiday morality high horse you failed to acknowledge your cold fix last night caused dozens of WADOT employees to have to be called in this morning. Cold weather destroys holiday joy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Several consecutive GFS runs have shown the NW in a reasonably cool and active pattern later in the run. Looks like some snow in the mountains and windstorm possibilities. No sign of the dreaded pattern yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Oh wowzers!! You're a goddamn genius Gump!! Ironically, as you sit on your holiday morality high horse you failed to acknowledge your cold fix last night caused dozens of WADOT employees to have to be called in this morning. Cold weather destroys holiday joy.So do false analogies! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00Z GFS and Canadian are wetter again next week. GFS MOS also shows the inversion taking hold with high temps dropping through the weekend. Only 40 at SEA on Saturday. It has been showing this for the last few days.Makes sense that would happen. Usually takes a few days for inversions to really get going as the winds die down and things stagnate. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 So do false analogies!Whatever helps you sleep at night. Blood on your hands... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 The GFS and its ensembles have been pretty consistently seasonable and active looking in the mid-long range for several runs now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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