PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[RentonHill]

EPS 850s

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

17 snowflakes on the truck this morning.

SCORE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-6.7C 850mb temps on the 12z SLE sounding.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going to be interesting to see if we can squeeze out anymore lowland winter fun next month! 

At this stage, I’m expecting to see more snow next month. Have seen lowland snow in March multiple times. Each time it happens, everyone is “WTF? Snow in March?!” as if it’s never happened before.

[MossMan]

I keep thinking our February luck is going to end at some point…

I do think it’s coming for November 2022 (way overdue for that month) and again January 2023! Then I fear a 2013-2016 repeat after that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One kind of final comment as we wind down this cold snap... It's nice to have a cold snap that really wasn't oversold much on the models. No model runs showing 40" of lowland snow or all-time record low temperatures. Just models locking in on a generally cool pattern, trending cooler down the home stretch, and not really backing off. This one was pretty satisfying for most because we didn't have unrealistic expectations, and what played out was generally what the models showed, and fit in with kind of the upper tier of climo for this time of year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One kind of final comment as we wind down this cold snap... It's nice to have a cold snap that really wasn't oversold much on the models. No model runs showing 40" of lowland snow or all-time record low temperatures. Just models locking in on a generally cool pattern, trending cooler down the home stretch, and not really backing off. This one was pretty satisfying for most because we didn't have unrealistic expectations, and what played out was generally what the models showed, and fit in with kind of the upper tier of climo for this time of year.

Some of this is just psychological. We already had the Christmas/New Year’s cold snap. This one was just icing on the cake. If this had been one of those winters with no lowland snow action until February, I’m pretty sure the drama factor would have been much more significant.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Some of this is just psychological. We already had the Christmas/New Year’s cold snap. This one was just icing on the cake. If this had been one of those winters with no lowland snow action until February, I’m pretty sure the drama factor would have been much more significant.

True. This little cold snap is going to really raise the grade for this winter here. Two sub-freezing highs in late-February is pretty significant (Even if it did happen in 2011, 18, 19). 

But I can say, the lead up to the December event greatly oversold how much truly cold air would make it this far south, and I know a lot of people especially living in the Willamette Valley were a bit bummed that we didn't experience the kind of cold temps folks up north did. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. This little cold snap is going to really raise the grade for this winter here. Two sub-freezing highs in late-February is pretty significant (Even if it did happen in 2011, 18, 19). 

But I can say, the lead up to the December event greatly oversold how much truly cold air would make it this far south, and I know a lot of people especially living in the Willamette Valley were a bit bummed that we didn't experience the kind of cold temps folks up north did. 

Even as far north of Olympia and chehalis was the cut off with that one. It was pretty amazing here. This recent cold snap was pretty neat though and hopefully mossmans fuzz map works for us next month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

37 in Tacoma at noon. Still a solidly chilly day for late February even if we don’t stay under 40. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

One of my daughter’s best friends is Ukrainian. She was here in tears a couple days ago and I didn’t know what to do. I told her at least the ensembles look pretty good right now.

Spokane has one of the Largest Ukrainian communities in the US.  My next door neighbors are Ukrainian.  Talked to them on Monday they weren't excessively concerned, have not talked to them since what happened last night though, i'm sure that's changed.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

One of my daughter’s best friends is Ukrainian. She was here in tears a couple days ago and I didn’t know what to do. I told her at least the ensembles look pretty good right now.

Knew someone from college (dual citizen) who evacuated to Romania from Lviv last week. They are heartbroken.

About school, we had no late start today but with only a half inch of snow I don't argue with that call. But sometimes they have regular school when we have three inches and that's always a bit wierd.

 

[gusky]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Woke up to about 1/16th of an inch. It’s something…

And it's all gone now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun is trying to come out now. Temp up to 33, should be a cold night, won't be here though. My wife's water broke this morning, so we'll be heading to the hospital by 7pm at the latest. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even as far north of Olympia and chehalis was the cut off with that one. It was pretty amazing here. This recent cold snap was pretty neat though and hopefully mossmans fuzz map works for us next month. 

It was really a slightly colder version of January 2012 down here. In terms of my backyard that setup was about as good as it gets for significant snow. But I was really rooting for a regionwide arctic blast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO ensembles continue to look pretty chilly starting around March 3/4th. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

54 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

17 snowflakes on the truck this morning.

Pictures?

[MossMan]

Even though we are up to 37 degrees the DP is at 30 and so very little melting today! Live view since I just came home for lunch. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One kind of final comment as we wind down this cold snap... It's nice to have a cold snap that really wasn't oversold much on the models. No model runs showing 40" of lowland snow or all-time record low temperatures. Just models locking in on a generally cool pattern, trending cooler down the home stretch, and not really backing off. This one was pretty satisfying for most because we didn't have unrealistic expectations, and what played out was generally what the models showed, and fit in with kind of the upper tier of climo for this time of year.

Ya know with the lack of hype in the models and the media and ourselves I really thought this week was just going to be a little chilly at night and perhaps a little sloppy snow at some point so it helped make this week even more special with all of the “surprise” snow and cold! 

[GHweatherChris]

56 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Pictures?

Wasn't gonna waste phone battery and memory on that disappointment.

[Skagit Weather]

Ended up getting 2.5” last night which was an inch more than the snowiest model of the WRF. That puts me at 21.75” on the winter, making this my second snowiest winter of the century. It’s pretty hard to complain about that, especially with 9 days of over an inch of snow, even if January and February were mostly snooze fests.

It’s also incredible how quickly late February sun melts dry snow. After a low of 19F (4 degrees colder than yesterday) I’m up to 37F now and there’s no snow left anywhere in the sun.

Some pics from this morning:

[Deweydog]

Holding on!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phil]

Wow, full blown SSW on the 12z ECMWF.

Better late than never?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Chris said:

 

When was the last time one split from that direction?  Maybe it will jumpstart the Atlantic hurricane season, if it splits as modeled.

It’s a wave-2 response as modeled. Not aware of any connection to Atlantic hurricanes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z ALERT!

[RentonHill]

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wow, full blown SSW on the 12z ECMWF.

Better late than never?

Can't wait for those highs in the low 40s in mid to late April!!

[LowerGarfield]

Still snowing here and has been all day but not accumulating after sunrise.

[Prairiedog]

1/4" .  Really a beautiful dusting on the creek albeit not much. 

We were trying to figure out which masks worked best for catching snowflakes.  We ran around the yard with N95's, the light blue hospital grade, and some black ones from Amazon.  We're compiling the data now.  If any of you have any such data be sure to post it.  We heard that snow transmits Covid esp outside so we were just doing what we were told. 

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like a sixth below average March in a row may be in the cards. Pretty interesting how Feb and March cooled in the 1991-20 averages compared to 1981-10, while every other month warmed. Have to wonder whether it’s just weird luck or if our climo is trending towards later winters.

[Omegaraptor]

Lol at this Mt Hood Meadows comment. Pretty sure this is called a “tree line” and is not unique to Mt Hood.

[TacomaWaWx]

40/28 today…came very close to a sub 40 high but just couldn’t quite get there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is definitely on the cold side of the ensembles, but they did improve again. 

[RentonHill]

EPS weeklies

[Tyler Mode]

Still made it up to 41 today, with 0.75" of snow this morning.  Still a trace on the ground right now.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some of the snow from this morning still hung on in the shade here in Tacoma. Low DP!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS weeklies

Cool spring on the way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, snow this time of year doesn't hang on long in the lowlands. I remember 2/26/09 getting a couple of inches in the morning and by early afternoon going fishing and it had already completely melted. 

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS weeklies

It’s gonna get cold.

[MossMan]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, snow this time of year doesn't hang on long in the lowlands. I remember 2/26/09 getting a couple of inches in the morning and by early afternoon going fishing and it had already completely melted. 

Yeah I’m lucky to have a lot of shade on my property so the almost spring powered sun did not do a lot to melt there, however at work where it’s more wide open, all of the snow is gone from the full sun areas, still lots in the shade however.