PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Will need to see how quickly we leave La Niña, and how the West-Pacific Warm Pool evolves, but statistically I think a warm summer is favored, with warmer anomalies focused later in the season, as opposed to last year.

But anything from a 2015-like blowtorch, to a more 2019-like mild/wet regime, is possible assuming La Niña/-ENSO base state doesn’t hold on (and I don’t think it will).

Thoughts on the sun coming up tomorrow ?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wind kept up most the night here, barely touched 32 just after midnight 

Clouding up, breezy and 37 now 

[Anti Marine Layer]

La Nina is a bad girl. 

[TT-SEA]

Total precip through midnight on February 28th.    SEA is -2.63 for the month... so this should put the Seattle area at normal or a little wetter than normal for February.     SEA finished January with 7.06 inches which was +1.28.

 

[awright-31]

02-25-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 49* at 2:45 pm
Low temp - 20* at 5:15 am

New precip - 0.00"
February precip to date - 0.51"
We have received 10% of our normal February precip 89% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9"

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Can’t go wrong with James in the name

Congrats to all 

[Blizzard777]

Low of 28* this morning and I saw Mr. Nelson played the “fork” card !

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Low of 28* this morning and I saw Mr. Nelson played the “fork” card !

Well... meteorological winter ends in 60 hours so its fairly pointless to be bring out the forks now.  

[TT-SEA]

46 at SEA with a dewpoint of 16... that is some dry air.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Euro and GEM continues to show much more precip for Salem south than the GFS for next week 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back up at the house to feed the animals. Looks like 43/23 yesterday. 30 this morning, up to 48 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold air got stuck in the Baker Valley and never left... Bonkers numbers for February. 

[RentonHill]

Two nice EPS Control runs in a row. Means are getting colder in Canada but still too far out for mean to show strong signal for coastal

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congratulations to you and your wife.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

La Nina is a bad girl. 

It's been decent for WA.  A somewhat cold winter overall with a couple of significant cold waves, and lowland snow.

I think the next 12 months or so is going to be our time to shine (if you like below normal temps) assuming a Nino doesn't pop up.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Two nice EPS Control runs in a row. Means are getting colder in Canada but still too far out for mean to show strong signal for coastal

Besides that you can tell the operational ECMWF is going places at the end of the run.  If we pull off a significant March cold snap with a lot of springtime frost I'll be pretty satisfied with this cold season.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cold air got stuck in the Baker Valley and never left... Bonkers numbers for February. 

How on Earth did they pull that off?  Wow!

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS is out to hour 240 or so

 

Interestingly the ensembles are way wetter than even the operational for the period centered around 3/1

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

She got no arms!

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like all three winter months will be below average at PDX, albeit not by much with December at -0.6 and January -0.1. Not bad for our modern globular warming climate. Given how the last few Decembers and Januaries have gone, I'd call this a win.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congrats!!

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like all three winter months will be below average at PDX, albeit not by much with December at -0.6 and January -0.1. Not bad for our modern globular warming climate. Given how the last few Decembers and Januaries have gone, I'd call this a win.

A very average winter for PDX based off of 1991-2020 averages now which equals a sad face.

But like you say, not bad for a rapidly warming climate I guess.

[ShawniganLake]

Precip started as ice pellets here even though the temp is 41F

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Precip started as ice pellets here even though the temp is 41F

I just noticed that the DP’s are still in the upper 20’s here even though the air temp is 43 so still very little melting of the snow. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

I just noticed that the DP’s are still in the upper 20’s here even though the air temp is 43 so still very little melting of the snow. 

All of our snow held on until about 10am when the DP finally went into the mid 30s. Was cool that it held on for a couple days though. 44 and light rain now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Running -1.0 for February now. Still just 0.51” for the month so far…but likely to be close to 3” by midnight Tuesday morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congrats my man!!

[Omegaraptor]

Not quite weather-related but a while back Tim was in Palm Springs and started a discussion about water, and I just happened to be writing a water rights paper at the same time. Looks like I got a perfect score on that paper.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

All of our snow held on until about 10am when the DP finally went into the mid 30s. Was cool that it held on for a couple days though. 44 and light rain now. 

It’s kind of weird here, the DP seems to be dropping as the wind has really picked up! It’s down to 26. Temp at 44. 

[snow_wizard]

Persistent northerly flow and northerly surface gradients are really locking in on the models now.  Very atypical pattern for March.

[MossMan]

Just hopped back into my truck after it sat for an hour and it’s covered in pollen again…It’s coming!! 
My seasonal allergies are coming.  

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

A very average winter for PDX based off of 1991-2020 averages now which equals a sad face.

But like you say, not bad for a rapidly warming climate I guess.

Is it?  All I can say is the last 5 winters have been worlds better than the first five winters of this century.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it?  All I can say is the last 5 winters have been worlds better than the first five winters of this century.

The summers have been better too.    More seasonal variety.

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it?  All I can say is the last 5 winters have been worlds better than the first five winters of this century.

No question the climate is warming you can look at literally any chart and it shows our annual average temperature creeping up over the decades. Hard to understand how anyone could still deny this, how many record or near record warm years have PDX and SEA seen in the last ten? Or Record or near record warm months vs record cool. Looking at the whole picture not just isolated winter weather events 

[gusky]

Coming thru North Bend and it’s lightly ice pelleting. Could be sleet, doesn’t look like snow or graupel

[jakerepp]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congrats Andrew! 

[jakerepp]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just hopped back into my truck after it sat for an hour and it’s covered in pollen again…It’s coming!! 
My seasonal allergies are coming.  

I was just noticing my car is filthy as well...blech.

[Front Ranger]

This will be the fifth February in a row here to average below 30 degrees. That's never happened before...in fact, the longest streak previously was 3 Februaries in a row.

February = global warming immunity.

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silas James was born at 9:52p last night.

Congrats!!!

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This will be the fifth February in a row here to average below 30 degrees. That's never happened before...in fact, the longest streak previously was 3 Februaries in a row.

February = global warming immunity.

On the other hand, January has been at least 3 degrees warmer than February each of the past 5 years as well.

Which is also unprecedented and crazy.