PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This wet season has been a tale of two parts, from a very wet September through early January, to a nearly record breakingly dry 50 day-ish period since. As for temperatures, it's been refreshing to see deep Arctic air in December not immediately answered by torching. Got pretty used to that since 2012.

This has been the coolest winter up this way since 2016-17, and even that winter torched hard in November. The one warm month this Sept-Feb wet season (Nov) just edged mild, not very torchy. La Niña has lived up to its name here.

Definitely a Nina-like cold season here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And in the south valley we're right back to being several inches below normal for the water year. It gets worse every year.

Looks like EUG is about -3.28” for the water year as of yesterday which isn’t as bad as some recent years at least hopefully we can make a dent in it this spring would only take a couple patterns like this to catch up 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This wet season has been a tale of two parts, from a very wet September through early January, to a nearly record breakingly dry 50 day-ish period since. As for temperatures, it's been refreshing to see deep Arctic air in December not immediately answered by torching. Got pretty used to that since 2012.

This has been the coolest winter up this way since 2016-17, and even that winter torched hard in November. The one warm month this Sept-Feb wet season (Nov) just edged mild, not very torchy. La Niña has lived up to its name here.

Would have to run the numbers but I think this is PDX’s coolest winter overallsince then too definitely the first time since then that DJF were all below average of course the new warmer 30 year averages make that easier for any location 

[jakerepp]

54 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

mega rain shadow for you. I'm at 1.35 today and hit 1.10 yesterday

Yep, we've actually had some decent dry periods the last 24+ hours.

[Meatyorologist]

As for Eugene (Mahlon).... Yikes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Regional view of DJF precip, although should get a little better after today is factored in 
 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A little misleading for the Seattle area as it does not include all the rain that is falling today.   SEA was significantly wetter than normal for January (+1.28 departure) and will be wetter than normal for February.     December was the only drier than normal month in the last 6 months with a -1.64 departure.  

[TT-SEA]

And its not just SEA... OLM is now almost +7 inches for the water year and climbing.

Same at HQM which is also at +7 inches for the water year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A little misleading for the Seattle area as it does not include all the rain that is falling today.   SEA was significantly wetter than normal for January (+1.28 departure) and will be wetter than normal for February.     December was the only drier than normal month in the last 6 months with a -1.64 departure.  

Thanks I edited post that map should get better for the whole region after today 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says the heavy rain will not end until around midnight for the Seattle area... going to be some impressive numbers for the day.

[Phil]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

For sure.  This is the big SSW we've been waiting for.  I would have to call this a pretty solid winter if we get another round of significant cold in the next couple of weeks.  About as good as you can get without January contributing anything in most locations.

Might not be a full fledged SSW (need u-wind reversal @ 60N for that). But given the timing and structure of the w-2 response it will affect the MJO/tropospheric circulation and begin the seasonal transition in regional wavetrains.

Gonna be a cold period for the West-Central US and possibly the majority of the CONUS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Might not be a full fledged SSW. But given the timing and structure of the w-2 response it will affect the MJO/tropospheric circulation and begin the seasonal transition in regional wavetrains.

Gonna be a cold period for the West-Central US and possibly the majority of the CONUS.

We are doing a road trip down to the SW in mid March wonder if it could be cold and snowy at times in Utah and NM 

[Phil]

In other news, low 80s look possible here next week.

Too early for this crap.

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would have to run the numbers but I think this is PDX’s coolest winter overallsince then too definitely the first time since then that DJF were all below average of course the new warmer 30 year averages make that easier for any location 

2018-19 was about a half degree colder for DJF at PDX. Obviously carried entirely by that February.

[Skagit Weather]

0.56" on the day and 2.5" on the month with a current temp of 44F. It's nice to be on the cool side of this system, because it looks like snow level is about 4,000 ft in the North Cascades. Not great, but at least better than the 6-7,000 ft down south. Baker is still receiving snow at the moment (22" in the last 24 hours) although that should change as the day warms.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF says the heavy rain will not end until around midnight for the Seattle area... going to be some impressive numbers for the day.

Could be looking at approaching some 24 hour records for February in some places. Heaviest rain also looks to coincide pretty perfectly with the calendar day.

[BLI snowman]

PDX up to 1.13" on the day as of 9:53. Good chance they break the record of 1.66" set back in 2011.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Could be looking at approaching some 24 hour records for February in some places. Heaviest rain also looks to coincide pretty perfectly with the calendar day.

I was thinking the same thing about lining up perfectly with calendar day (and also month of course).

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2018-19 was about a half degree colder for DJF at PDX. Obviously carried entirely by that February.

I was thinking that could be the main contender it’s funny since Dec and January were both a few degrees warmer than this year but Feb was several degrees below normal 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A little misleading for the Seattle area as it does not include all the rain that is falling today.   SEA was significantly wetter than normal for January (+1.28 departure) and will be wetter than normal for February.     December was the only drier than normal month in the last 6 months with a -1.64 departure.  

Calling this February a wet month (a dry month with two very wet days) just seems kinda weird. But I guess that is the way it will show up in the record books.

Kinda like saying that Redding has a wetter climate than Seattle... if you use the city of Redding rather than the airport, this is most likely true in terms of annual precip, but no one who has lived in both places will tell you with a straight face that Seattle feels less rainy. Number of rain days per month/year is a very relevant stat.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX up to 1.13" on the day as of 9:53. Good chance they break the record of 1.66" set back in 2011.

Nice spring analog  

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Calling this February a wet month (a dry month with two very wet days) just seems kinda weird. But I guess that is the way it will show up in the record books.

Kinda like saying that Redding has a wetter climate than Seattle... if you use the city of Redding rather than the airport, this is most likely true in terms of annual precip, but no one who has lived in both places will tell you with a straight face that Seattle feels less rainy. Number of rain days per month/year is a very relevant stat.

I always use the 'days with rain' metric to gauge a month against my personal preferences... and its been a good month in that regard.     I enjoy getting tons of rain in a hurry while still having lots of sunny days.    

But there is also the overriding precip anomaly statistic in the background and we have been exceedingly wet overall this fall and winter season up here so we have no debt owed in terms of rain.

August 2015 in a good example of excessive rain falling during a very sunny month.    That is one of the wettest Augusts ever up here but was still a very sunny and warm month as well.   Best of both worlds for me.  

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice spring analog  

March is at least looking to start out a bit more continental this year. As cold as that spring was there really wasn't any cool offshore flow at all after the late February event.

[Phil]

00z EPS. Persistent cold centered in the west-central conus w/ high latitude blocking/WAA thru NPAC also evident.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z EPS. Persistent cold centered in the west-central conus w/ high latitude blocking/WAA thru NPAC also evident.

We may not be done with Arctic air.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 1.33 for the day... and has reached normal precip for February.    The rest of the day is just gravy now and padding the stats.  

[MossMan]

Both Snoqualmie and Stevens are closed and with the extreme avalanche danger they might stay that way for a day or two. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

March is at least looking to start out a bit more continental this year. As cold as that spring was there really wasn't any cool offshore flow at all after the late February event.

True 2008 is a good example of a relatively recent one that averaged cool MAM but was more dynamic with a continental flavor 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61F cloudy and dry.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks much more zonal at the end compared to the 00Z run as the ridge pinches off and heads to the arctic.    12Z GFS went that way as well in the long range.     That would be a much wetter scenario while still being good for the mountains.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA has set a daily rainfall record and its not even noon yet... surpassing 1.46 inches on 2/28/1972

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

61F cloudy and dry.

Luckily looks like a lot more rain coming for you guys Eugene area was wetter than Portland on the 12z Euro 

[SouthHillFrosty]

First major rain @ the new house. We’ll see If the roof has a leak or not. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Luckily looks like a lot more rain coming for you guys Eugene area was wetter than Portland on the 12z Euro 

Would be nice.

[Phishy Wx]

nothing like bookending Meteorological winter with 2 record breaking ARs.  oof 

[TT-SEA]

PDX is at 1.43 inches for the day... closing in on the daily record.      

[ShawniganLake]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

PDX is at 1.43 inches for the day... closing in on the daily record.      

I hear it’s been totally dry at Joshua’s house, though. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1.60” now. Think we will be breaking a daily rainfall record for February today.  It’s dumping out here on the peninsula. 2.5” in 24 hours in Tacoma and 53 degrees. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I hear it’s been totally dry at Joshua’s house, though. 

Should be lucky to get over 1/4” today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

We may not be done with Arctic air.

That’s a pretty nice signal for it. I’m content with winter but can always go for more.