PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[FroYoBro]

Video I took of a nice urban stream forming while walking some pups today. 

[AlTahoe]

Maybe we can start our fire season in April this year? I hope everyone North and east of us likes their summers smoky! 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F and still cloudy and dry. Feels like the driest February I can remember. Only 0.78" for the month so far.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ending winter with a day of wet and dry hyperbole  

[Blizzard777]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is awesome... wish we could do this every month.  

Get it all in a couple days and be done with it  

[Blizzard777]

45 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Video I took of a nice urban stream forming while walking some pups today. 

Wow….video played right away for me with great quality!!! Usually these videos take a long time to load….did something change? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Get it all in a couple days and be done with it  

Better for water supply to get average rain distributed throughout the month 

[Blizzard777]

Heaviest rain rate (.35) of day occurring currently with 20 mph southerly winds. 
 

2.33 for the day and climbing  

[Blizzard777]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Better for water supply to get average rain distributed throughout the month 

Agree…but old age sides with getting it all quickly so I can go play outside.   Younger Jim used to enjoy rain all the time….things change.

“Bad Jim”

[Cascadia_Wx]

Getting some sunbreaks now temp is up to 58 hoping the rain band nudges back south before the day is over sitting just over 1.5” for the day here 

[TacomaWaWx]

2.35” here today. Wettest day since December 2019…just need 0.25” to pass it which could definitely happen. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Anyone else having problems with the ensemble chart site today keeps saying it’s not secure wonder if the Russians hacked it 

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

For most of western WA... that dry period did not even come close to wiping out the surplus for the water year.   SEA is getting close to the point now where it would not have to rain much between now and October 1st to still end up with a normal water year.  That is impressive. 

It really felt like a dry period was coming by early January because it had been so wet that it was not sustainable.  And of course we have offset that entire dry period statistically just since Saturday.

I know you know this, but it bears repeating for myself and others that we could get 200%+ of normal rainfall over a winter, but if it all fell at an average temperature of 55F in the lowlands with freezing levels 6,000'+ we could still be in terrible shape for summer. I think the fact that the Cascades currently have average to just below average snowpack despite how wet the winter has been shows that pretty clearly.

Similarly, it it was wet in November it could probably be completely dry throughout December-February (with such low levels of solar radiation) as long as the following months put enough snowpack in the mountains to bring us to average and we had a normal spring/summer. Of course that wouldn't bring a very good ski season, but in terms of everything else that matters it would probably be fine.

I think people see a dry Jan/Feb (yes, except for a couple days that brought us up to normal on those months) and get worried because that's when most of our precipitations normally falls and we're unsure whether March/April will be wet enough to make up for it. And based on the last couple summers, even having average to above average snowfall in the winter has still caused problems by the end of the summer.

So basically, has this been a dry winter? Technically no, but we did just go through the third driest 1.5 month (45 day) period during the winter on record at SEA (behind 2009 and 1988) and if the rest of the spring was drier than average we would be in trouble.

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I know you know this, but it bears repeating for myself and others that we could get 200%+ of normal rainfall over a winter, but if it all fell at an average temperature of 55F in the lowlands with freezing levels 6,000'+ we could still be in terrible shape for summer. I think the fact that the Cascades currently have average to just below average snowpack despite how wet the winter has been shows that pretty clearly.

Similarly, it it was wet in November it could probably be completely dry throughout December-February (with such low levels of solar radiation) as long as the following months put enough snowpack in the mountains to bring us to average and we had a normal spring/summer. Of course that wouldn't bring a very good ski season, but in terms of everything else that matters it would probably be fine.

I think people see a dry Jan/Feb (yes, except for a couple days that brought us up to normal on those months) and get worried because that's when most of our precipitations normally falls and we're unsure whether March/April will be wet enough to make up for it. And based on the last couple summers, even having average to above average snowfall in the winter has still caused problems by the end of the summer.

So basically, has this been a dry winter? Technically no, but we did just go through the third driest 1.5 month (45 day) period during the winter on record at SEA (behind 2009 and 1988) and if the rest of the spring was drier than average we would be in trouble.

It could rain 400 inches during the winter months and then be 90 and sunny all summer and everything would be dying and burning up.      

Climo is not even... SEA had the wettest fall ever then a dry period from mid-January to late February.   Now its flooding again.    We still need mountain snow in the spring either way.     

I prefer getting lots of rain in a hurry and having more sunny days.   Some prefer rain and clouds every day.  Of course nature doesn't care about our preferences at all.    Its chaotic and extreme at times.   Chances are there will be more wet periods ahead through early summer.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z seemed decent. 

[TT-SEA]

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

2.47” here. Definitely the wettest February day I’ve recorded and might be the wettest day since 2009 or something like that here shortly. I’ll have to look when I get home. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z seemed decent. 

It did 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

No hyperbole here. Simply reporting on actual conditions in my area, which is still technically part of the Pacific Northwest despite recurring secession talks. If that runs counter to the prevailing relentless narrative of how VERY VERY WET it has been, I can't help that.

No I get it it seems like there are two camps here some who overstate how wet and cool it’s been in their backyards and others who play up their warm and dry conditions and the two narratives feed into each other and are usually pretty extreme compared to wha this actually happening at a regional scale I just find it sort of interesting 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

No hyperbole here. Simply reporting on actual conditions in my area, which is still technically part of the Pacific Northwest despite recurring secession talks. If that runs counter to the prevailing relentless narrative of how VERY VERY WET it has been, I can't help that.

It should be reported... the north/south gradient is impressive and very frustrating.

[MossMan]

Rain has stopped and the smoke has mostly cleared so the wind direction must have changed slightly. 1.08” on the day and temp up to 51.

And my driveway snow pile evening update! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

My rain gauge STB last week, so I am missing out on the data for this AR event, but perusing nearby weather stations on Wunderground, it looks like we have only had about .5"-.6" today.  Replacement is on order, not sure when it will get here.  I might start squirreling away some money to make the jump to a Davis once the rest of the sensor suite STB.

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everyone doing for the last day of meteor winter?

Had to go in to the office today for the first time in a few weeks.  Kinda crazy, when I started up this new job a little over a month ago, I was driving to work in the dark, and coming home was well on its way to being dark.  Today if it wasn't for the rain I would not have needed my headlights either way.

 

 

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS was go big or go home. mostly home. but a couple were smoking/snorting/injecting/freebasing/eyedropping/etc the good stuff!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18z GEFS was go big or go home. mostly home. but a couple were smoking/snorting/injecting/freebasing/eyedropping/etc the good stuff!

Wowzers 

[The Winter Warlock]

4.70 inches so far for this event - just wet.

[GHweatherChris]

Powers out.

[TacomaWaWx]

Raining hard with 2.68” today and a 3.56” storm total. Today is the wettest day here since 1/7/09…had 3.33” in one day. 

[Blizzard777]

6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What’s everyone doing for the last day of meteor winter?

Taxes  

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Taxes  

I need to do that,  I usually procrastinate to April, because I always owe

[TT-SEA]

Through 5 p.m... still raining hard at SEA.  

Wetter than normal for the month, for the year, and for the water year.  

 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Taxes  

So happy my wife is an accountant, I don’t have to worry about any of that stuff! I used to hate doing taxes, paying bills, etc back in the day. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So happy my wife is an accountant, I don’t have to worry about any of that stuff! I used to hate doing taxes, paying bills, etc back in the day. 

My wife is not good with numbers... but still watches the money like a hawk.   Its real fun!  

[Blizzard777]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I need to do that,  I usually procrastinate to April, because I always owe

I owe big time…..but I was expecting it 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

I owe big time…..but I was expecting it 

Same here.   I figure out the damage early and then wait until the last minute to file.  

[Blizzard777]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So happy my wife is an accountant, I don’t have to worry about any of that stuff! I used to hate doing taxes, paying bills, etc back in the day. 

That’s a nice benefit of your marriage contract  

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife is not good with numbers... but still watches the money like a hawk.   Its real fun!  

Made me think of this lmao 

[SnowySeeker50]

2.52 inches so far today. Now at 4 inches for the event. 

[TT-SEA]

The 1985 analog is not looking too good... even though I would enjoy a repeat.    

SEA already has more rain this year than the total precip from January through September in 1985.    In other words... it took until September that year to get as much rain as we have had through February 28th this year.  That was a crazy dry year.    I wonder what caused that?