PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS

 

Kind of interesting how much wetter the ensemble mean is compared the operational the next few days not really sure how much weight that holds at such a close range 

[Dan the Weatherman]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Unlike the other false alarms, this is a legitimate stratwarm (possibly a SSW) that will have significant structural effects on the PV and the NH circulation in general.

I hope it shakes up the weather pattern and dislodges the RRR that has been sitting off the West Coast since the beginning of January and allows some decent storms to affect the entire West Coast region, including California!

[awright-31]

02-26-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 42* recorded at 11:15 am
Low temp - 25* recorded at 5:45 am

New precip - 0.76"
February month to date precip - 1.27"
We have received 24% of our normal February precip 93% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 snow to date - 10.9"

[TacomaWaWx]

Just went over 1” of rain for the month. 1.01” today. 49 right now…if we don’t hit 50 today we likely will tomorrow for the first time since 2/13. 

[MossMan]

Still at .06” on the day, been dry and windy since daybreak. Thank goodness for the Olympics! 
Currently 48 degrees. 
Only my snow mounds remain. 

[Phil]

EPS weeklies keep the West below average through mid-April.

But notice the SW US starting to heat up towards the end. Need to keep that 4CH in check somehow.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies keep the West below average through mid-April.

But notice the SW US starting to heat up towards the end. Need to keep that 4CH in check somehow.

1967?

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Still at .06” on the day, been dry and windy since daybreak. Thank goodness for the Olympics! 
Currently 48 degrees. 
Only my snow mounds remain. 

Just got home from Bellingham... the warmest part of the trip was in your area between Mt Vernon and Arlington.    We hit heavy rain near Everett for the rest of the trip.    Almost all of our snow is gone here now.    Our lawn was still mostly covered yesterday morning but now its all green grass.    Just a few random snowbanks left along the road.

[TacomaWaWx]

49/41 0.35” today. -0.8 for the month as of today. 

[TT-SEA]

CNN using some colorful language... people hear Cat4 and they think total destruction.    The reality is so much more benign.   Like just getting to average precip for the month.    

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

CNN using some colorful language... people hear Cat4 and they think total destruction.    The reality is so much more benign.   Like just getting to average precip for the month.    

Between the Cat 4 hitting us, the impending nukes coming in from Russia and North Korea, and Russell Wilson wiping his Instagram clean of the Seahawks… the whole Pacific Northwest is a goner. 
Oh the media hype. 

[TT-SEA]

Although... flooding on the Snoqualmie River will be fairly significant.       

Going from a dry month to now having way too much water.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F and cloudy but dry. Just 0.02" today. Not looking forward to summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

56F and cloudy but dry. Just 0.02" today. Not looking forward to summer.

 

18z showing decent totals even for Eugene the next five days good too see 

 

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

What a nasty, gray, sopping wet day. Lots of standing water on the roadways between here and Carnation. 0.71 inches on the day so far with lots more to come. Hooray. 

I just had some sprinkles! First since early this morning! 

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy rain/rain mix here currently, wasn't expecting this pleasant surprise.

[GHweatherChris]

Up to 1.47" of mixed rain and rain today, 4.23" MTD and 22.75" YTD.  And this winter is only gonna get a B- from me. Only one decent bout of winter weather.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Heavy rain/rain mix here currently, wasn't expecting this pleasant surprise.

A rain/rain mix? 

I assume you mean snow.    That is really surprising... 850mb temp is 1C and 925mb temp is about 6C so not sure how it could even be snowing aloft.     Maybe its hail or ice pellets?

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A rain/rain mix? 

I assume you mean snow.    That is really surprising... 850mb temp is 1C and 925mb temp is about 6C so not sure how it could even be snowing aloft.     Maybe its hail or ice pellets?

Oh Tim.......

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A rain/rain mix? 

I assume you mean snow.    That is really surprising... 850mb temp is 1C and 925mb temp is about 6C so not sure how it could even be snowing aloft.     Maybe its hail or ice pellets?

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A rain/rain mix? 

I assume you mean snow.    That is really surprising... 850mb temp is 1C and 925mb temp is about 6C so not sure how it could even be snowing aloft.     Maybe its hail or ice pellets?

I have sprinkles mixed with tree pollen! 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A rain/rain mix? 

I assume you mean snow.    That is really surprising... 850mb temp is 1C and 925mb temp is about 6C so not sure how it could even be snowing aloft.     Maybe its hail or ice pellets?

Timothy-

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, MossMan said:

I have sprinkles mixed with tree pollen! 

You must mean snow.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Timothy-

Be nice 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Oh Tim.......

My sarcasm detector needs to be re-booted.  

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My sarcasm detector needs to be re-booted.  

And HEAVILY recalibrated too

[ShawniganLake]

Raining here. Quite heavily.  1.28” on the day. 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.72” so far today. Probably won’t get to 1” of rain for the day but we might get close. 

[MossMan]

Up to .12” on the day. 

[MossMan]

I am teetering on giving this season an A- but that horribly dull chunk of winter between the first of January thru mid February was pretty vomit worthy with the exception of those few sunny warm days. Then again the historic flooding and the powerful windstorm in November, then the amazing stretch of winter weather for the second half of December, then this last week I think all in all an A- is probably the way to go. And I’m pretty sure that I will be seeing more accumulating snow in March as well. 

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro looks good next week

[snow_wizard]

Tonight's ECMWF wants to go somewhere really cold.  Blocked right up to the Pole.  Also pretty noteworthy the GEFS is continuously below normal for the entire run after the next couple of days.

[Meatyorologist]

I suspect predictability will be very low over the next few weeks. #SSWing

[Deweydog]

Looks like a whet Monday coming up with a mix at best at the lowest elevations.

[SnowWillarrive]

42 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am teetering on giving this season an A- but that horribly dull chunk of winter between the first of January thru mid February was pretty vomit worthy with the exception of those few sunny warm days. Then again the historic flooding and the powerful windstorm in November, then the amazing stretch of winter weather for the second half of December, then this last week I think all in all an A- is probably the way to go. And I’m pretty sure that I will be seeing more accumulating snow in March as well. 

We need a March snow to make this winter truly special. 

[snow_wizard]

When you think about it this regime we are in is truly remarkable.  We go for almost all of February with almost no rain and then we get a month's worth right at the end.  Then after this we go right back into chilly and blocky.  This might be a pretty interesting year.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I suspect predictability will be very low over the next few weeks. #SSWing

For sure.  This is the big SSW we've been waiting for.  I would have to call this a pretty solid winter if we get another round of significant cold in the next couple of weeks.  About as good as you can get without January contributing anything in most locations.

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am teetering on giving this season an A- but that horribly dull chunk of winter between the first of January thru mid February was pretty vomit worthy with the exception of those few sunny warm days. Then again the historic flooding and the powerful windstorm in November, then the amazing stretch of winter weather for the second half of December, then this last week I think all in all an A- is probably the way to go. And I’m pretty sure that I will be seeing more accumulating snow in March as well. 

I was thinking the same for places like North Bend.  From a snow standpoint some select locations have been right up there in the top 10% winters category.  The one big weak point of this winter is the average temperature for Dec - Feb.  I ran the numbers today and it will be right on the 1895 to present normal for the Puget Sound Lowlands.  Far from terrible, but not what you want to see for an A or A- winter.  The snow and two significant cold periods certainly carry a lot of weight though.  IMBY the number of sub 40 highs has been pretty impressive also.

[Meatyorologist]

Gonna end up a +1.1°F departure today and around a +3°F tomorrow. Good for a -2°F monthly departure. Not bad!

Got that DJF below avg trifecta. Much, much different than much of the rest of the west coast.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The EPS has a strong signal for a huge Arctic blast over much of the northern tier coming up.  Cold is certainly further west than the 12z.