There are really two parts of this storm. That initial wave that will slam parts of MN & WI and then if we get a strong deformation band and how quickly it sets up. The first wave has shifted north considerably the past 2-3 days. The deformation band is really either there on some models (GFS, Canadian) or barely there at all on others (Euro, UK).

Wow, I can’t remember a situation where we get nuked with Black Diamond and the Claw not getting as much. It often feels like MV / Covington are the snow holes of SE King County.

12z GFS was the first run of the last four that had an ever so slight shift back south.

There’s been a pretty clear north trend, though; going back all the way to Wednesday, even. Don’t really see how this can go south with it being an incredibly dynamic and strengthening system, but we’ll see.

Amazing overperformer and rug push here. Got at least a couple inches and just dumping snow. Radar to the west looks healthy. I get this was a tricky forecast given the marginal temps but NWS should’ve at least mentioned there was a high end possibility with the thing given the amount of precip coming in.