March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows significant precip in that ugly perpetual warm front... maybe as much as 5 inches out here.    Sure need it!   

 

Probably a rainy mess for the lower mountain passes in the later part of this event.  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do we know it won't be clear yet?

 

Well...Maybe it will be up there actually. The trough axis is going to move through and enhance things down here this evening and possibly lingering into the morning. 

[Winterdog]

If I wasn’t so lazy I would drive up to the new house and see how much if any snow that area got. Looking at the radar and reports from my work (which is close to the new house) it sounds like they got a little as well. Though the house is at 500ft and my work is about 250.

You will be among the elite sitting at 500' up against the foothills.  You probably won't get into as much CZ action there so I might still have a chance at keeping close to your totals.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a ton of agreement with the GFS ensembles. Could turn out cold, could be relatively seasonal.

[snow_wizard]

Sun is popping out here, it’s s melt-a-thon now!

 

That's the problem with this time of year.  The snow melts very fast after it stops during the day.

[snow_wizard]

Not a ton of agreement with the GFS ensembles. Could turn out cold, could be relatively seasonal.

 

The control and the operational have been cold on every run so the chances are pretty good for cold.  We also have persistence on our side.

[snow_wizard]

No action here. Didn't get below 36 last night. What other spots in the PNW have had an inch or less this winter? Even the coast seems to have had more than an inch in some spots with all the events combined. Just got really unlucky it seems since other years have been great here (like last winter).

 

Yikes.  I can't imagine many places have had so little.

[TT-SEA]

That's the problem with this time of year.  The snow melts very fast after it stops during the day.

 

No doubt... this is the difference between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. in North Bend. 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

BTW Did Jesse or BLI Snowman pick up any snow last night in Clark Co? I went to bed at some point there so if you said I missed it.

Just switched to wet snow for an hour or so before it petered out. I dozed off after 3, but it looked like places up against the foothills did better. Dewey.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Forgive me for not knowing, but were regional events like Dec 2008 more commonplace here before 1990?

[Perturbed Member]

Temp didn't drop below 33.2F for me under the heaviest precip. Got some accumulation on grass and cars but melted fairly quickly once the precip cut out. 

 

Looks like 500ft was about where snow started to stick to roads near my area. A pleasant little event.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much warmer for next weekend compared to the 12Z GFS and even some of its own previous runs.

 

Massive difference between the GFS and ECMWF by day 8 and 9.

[Timmy]

Dumping here now, biggest flakes all winter and 34f

[TT-SEA]

Dumping here now, biggest flakes all winter and 34f

Big flakes are fun to watch.

 

42 and mostly sunny here now.

 

Check out the weather in Hawaii. Horrible!

[Phil]

Good lord. Try finding an analog for this.

 

[Timmy]

Big flakes are fun to watch.

42 and mostly sunny here now.

Check out the weather in Hawaii. Horrible!

im glad we went on her private schools spring break instead of Oregon’s

[BLI snowman]

Lots of precip moving in. Should be some pretty impressively cold highs today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dumping here now, biggest flakes all winter and 34f

 

Look like some decent precip rates up there

[Phil]

Not a CDAS error, either. It shows up on every SSTA dataset and every baseline. Below is 1971-2000.

 

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you..that’s a Niña/exothermal NH in tandem with a cold IO/ATL, warm pool evacuation, and broad WHEM Hadley Cells.

 

What the actual f**k? This is not sustainable.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You are trolling as usual.

 

Just stating the facts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a CDAS error, either. It shows up on every SSTA dataset and every baseline. Below is 1971-2000.

 

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you..that’s a Niña/exothermal NH in tandem with a cold IO/ATL, warm pool evacuation, and broad WHEM Hadley Cells.

 

What the actual f**k? This is not sustainable.

 

 

In layman's terms?

[TT-SEA]

Just stating the facts.

Sure.

[snow_wizard]

Not a CDAS error, either. It shows up on every SSTA dataset and every baseline. Below is 1971-2000.

 

No, your eyes aren’t deceiving you..that’s a Niña/exothermal NH in tandem with a cold IO/ATL, warm pool evacuation, and broad WHEM Hadley Cells.

 

What the actual f**k? This is not sustainable.

 

 

Probably a transitional phenomenon.  -PDO is really trying to emerge now.

[Deweydog]

Just switched to wet snow for an hour or so before it petered out. I dozed off after 3, but it looked like places up against the foothills did better. Dewey.

I went to bed about midnight and it was still a mix at that point.

[Phil]

Probably a transitional phenomenon. -PDO is really trying to emerge now.

Oh, that part is transitional, yeah. It took a full year to completely flip the NPAC in 2013, so I suspect it will require a similar amount of time to fully flip it back. Or into whatever new state of operation it decides to roll with.

 

It won’t be the exact same structure as 2008-12. I’m thinking more of a 1950s look.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh, that part is transitional, yeah. It took a full year to completely flip the NPAC in 2013, so I suspect it will require a similar amount of time to fully flip it back. Or into whatever new state of operation it decides to roll with.

 

It won’t be the exact same structure as 2008-12. I’m thinking more of a 1950s look.

 

Hope you're right man. I want to experience a decade like the 50s before I die.

[Phil]

This is why I’m highlighting the 1950s as more structurally analogous right now. Especially across the Pacific. This is HADSST3 for 1950-1960 relative to the 1900-2010 average.

 

We’re not quite this far along yet, but probably will be during the 2020s.

 

 

Similar to today, there was a large evacuation of heat from the tropics following a multidecadal +NAM/warm pool buildup from 1910-1940 (typical phase shifting between quasi-stable equilibrating modes of ocean/atmosphere heat exchange). This began in the mid-1940s, and accelerated during the 1950s and 1960s. And though it was only a temporary pullback from the post-LIA recovery, it was a great demonstration of how climate change occurs on multidecadal to multi-millennial timescales.

[snow_wizard]

Hope you're right man. I want to experience a decade like the 50s before I die.

 

For my money the 1950s was the best decade to be alive period.  Great weather, music, cars, quality of life, etc.

[TT-SEA]

For my money the 1950s was the best decade to be alive period.  Great weather, music, cars, quality of life, etc.

 

So we are going back to everything from the 1950s?     Things are going to get really strange! 

[snow_wizard]

So we are going back to everything from the 1950s?     Things are going to get really strange! 

 

 

That would be a trip alright!  The liberals would go insane.

[HighlandExperience]

For my money the 1950s was the best decade to be alive period. Great weather, music, cars, quality of life, etc.

People just swept their problems under the rug

[James Jones]

 

That would be a trip alright!  The liberals would go insane.

 

That 90% top marginal tax rate would have conservatives everywhere creaming their pants.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The weather was great in the 50s and there is some great nostalgia from the period... Lot of melting today as can be expected in late March. Would be nice to have been able to work in the yard this weekend.

[Winterdog]

Melting fast but still a beautiful day.

[seattleweatherguy]

Im bummed that even the Euro was wrong about snow in the central sound at least in my area for this morning. Hope we can score again next round

[Phil]

When was the last time 850mb temps were -38C over Canada/Alberta in April? I don’t have reanalysis available right now, but that strikes me as unusually cold.

[Jesse]

Impressively cold day at PDX with a high of only 43 so far. Their coldest day this late in the season since 1985.

[ShawniganLake]

Had some hail/rain/snow/graupel showers earlier this afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

People just swept their problems under the rug

 

Maybe.  I think people just wanted to enjoy life for a while after the war.

[snow_wizard]

Impressively cold day at PDX with a high of only 43 so far. Their coldest day this late in the season since 1985.

 

1985 is being brought up a lot lately.  There were many fun and interesting weather events that year.

 

Im bummed that even the Euro was wrong about snow in the central sound at least in my area for this morning. Hope we can score again next round

 

I had almost an inch here.