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December 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1151
badgerwx

Posted 25 December 2018 - 09:38 AM

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We got a nice dusting of snow overnight in SW Wisconsin. Was just starting as we left mass last night at 10:30. Made my Christmas.
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#1152
Tom

Posted 25 December 2018 - 09:50 AM

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@ Tom

Lezak should be consulting you imho. While he's got a theory going with the LRC, you seem to be better at keeping track of the various events/dates and doing the needed leg-work to flesh out the hypothesis. Kudos to you and stick with the 55 day cycle. I think he's off by about a week and perhaps will realize that fact at some point?


Thanks for the kind words Jaster. I’m not trying to say I’m right and he’s wrong. He’s obviously the pro but when I calculate his length with previous patterns I can’t see them lining up with key patterns and/or storm systems. We’ll have to see if there are any adjustments going forward.

#1153
gabel23

Posted 25 December 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Thanks for the kind words Jaster. I’m not trying to say I’m right and he’s wrong. He’s obviously the pro but when I calculate his length with previous patterns I can’t see them lining up with key patterns and/or storm systems. We’ll have to see if there are any adjustments going forward.


By no means am I is good at looking at the cycle as you are, But from what I’ve seen and calculated I had it between 50 and 55 days! I would agree with you!
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#1154
Tom

Posted 25 December 2018 - 10:51 AM

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By no means am I is good at looking at the cycle as you are, But from what I’ve seen and calculated I had it between 50 and 55 days! I would agree with you!


Omg, I was just thinking about your 50-55 day cycle length about 10 min ago! Ha! Ya, that would make sense because back on Oct 15th-20th, there was a cut-off trough in the SW and we are in the beginning of that right now and the models are clearly advertising this pattern. 50-55 days would fit that!
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#1155
Hawkeye

Posted 25 December 2018 - 10:53 AM

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Of course, the new euro just backed off the digging trough in the west and removed most of the snow for Iowa, brings warmth back in by day 10.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1156
Tom

Posted 25 December 2018 - 10:54 AM

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Of course, the new euro just backed off the digging trough in the west and removed most of the snow for Iowa, brings warmth back in by day 10.


I saw that and I believe it’s wrong, typical SW bias at play.

#1157
Tom

Posted 25 December 2018 - 11:28 AM

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Omg, I was just thinking about your 50-55 day cycle length about 10 min ago! Ha! Ya, that would make sense because back on Oct 15th-20th, there was a cut-off trough in the SW and we are in the beginning of that right now and the models are clearly advertising this pattern. 50-55 days would fit that!

My bad, I was thinking about something else when I wrote this. This is not what I meant to say. Rewind!

Edit: I was thinking of a harmonic cycle
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#1158
hlcater

Posted 25 December 2018 - 11:57 AM

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I saw that and I believe it’s wrong, typical SW bias at play.


Me too actually. Cutting off the energy and retrograding it over Baja Californja. That reeks of a bias. GFS does something similar though....
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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#1159
hlcater

Posted 25 December 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Me too actually. Cutting off the energy and retrograding it over Baja Californja. That reeks of a bias. GFS does something similar though....


The GEFS is pretty awful too...

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#1160
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 December 2018 - 12:02 PM

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I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas!! You are all wonderful friends!!
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#1161
westMJim

Posted 25 December 2018 - 01:33 PM

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Here at my house there has been light snow fall since 11AM and the ground is now covered. I just took a  measurement and drum roll please.....there is now 1/2 inch of snow on the ground here at my house. So while Christmas Day started with just a trace of snow on the ground it will end with a 1/2 inch covering. With some light snow still falling the current temperature here is 31.


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#1162
Hawkeye

Posted 25 December 2018 - 08:33 PM

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The GFS is showing a good dump of arctic air early to mid next week.  It has highs in the low teens around here Tuesday and Wednesday, with bare ground, of course.  I'm beginning to wonder if it's ever going to snow this winter.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1163
Grizzcoat

Posted 25 December 2018 - 09:25 PM

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DSM officially at .7" of snow for the month of DEC. If no more snow falls the rest of this month (good bet) - it will rank 7th all time for least snow. That 2002-03 analog year?   DEC 2002 was #1 with a TRACE. The rest of that winter was not that good either minus a Valentines Day snow storm that dropped around 1'.

 

And FTR- the least amount of snow to fall at DSM in a winter season is between 8"-9" (too lazy to look it up now). Right now DSM stands at 2.7".  On the pace for a winter to remember!!!!


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#1164
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 06:59 AM

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NOAA:

 

Passing
southern stream energy may produce a few light snow showers Saturday
night close to the Ohio border, but 00z long range guidance has come
in much drier with this solution. Forecast confidence decreases
early next week as long range guidance struggles to resolve southern
stream energy ejecting out of an energized subtropical jet from the
Gulf Coast region.
Temperatures will be near normal for the long
term period.

 

First 10 days of January so far look dry and seasonably cold for SEMI.



#1165
james1976

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:01 AM

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DSM officially at .7" of snow for the month of DEC. If no more snow falls the rest of this month (good bet) - it will rank 7th all time for least snow. That 2002-03 analog year? DEC 2002 was #1 with a TRACE. The rest of that winter was not that good either minus a Valentines Day snow storm that dropped around 1'.

And FTR- the least amount of snow to fall at DSM in a winter season is between 8"-9" (too lazy to look it up now). Right now DSM stands at 2.7". On the pace for a winter to remember!!!!

Was 02-03 the season when it was really mild and hardly snowed? That was the worst winter ever.

#1166
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:02 AM

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Currently cloudy and seasonably chilly w temps in the 30s. Record high temps possible Fri w temps in the upper 50s even 60s are not outta the question w rain. UGH! It turns cold thereafter, but dry. Kinda reminds me of Winter 2015-16 I think it was when it would be frigid, followed by warmth and rain, followed by frigid air and etc and etc. :rolleyes:


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#1167
Tom

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Models are struggling with the New Year's system but I find the ICON is handling the pattern better and lines up with the LRC.  I think the crashing SOI and MJO are contributing to the model volatility so lets sit back and see what transpires over the next couple days.

 

SOI values for 26 Dec, 2018
Average SOI for last 30 days 9.37
Average SOI for last 90 days 3.39
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.32


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#1168
westMJim

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:44 AM

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I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Here at my house I stated the day started with a trace of snow on the ground and there was a light snow falling for most of the day. Officially GRR reported 0.4” of snow fall. And by late in the day I had a ½” snow cover. The snow is now starting to melt as the current temperature here is now up to 36° The total snow fall for Grand Rapids for December is now at 2.4” That has moved Grand Rapids up to 4th place in the all time least amount of December snow fall. the current list is 1. 2014 with 1.0” 2. 1913 with 2.3” 3. 1912 with 2.3” 4. 2018 2.4” 5. 2015 with 2.5” 6. 1979 with 2.6” 7. 1971 with 3.7” 8.  1906 with 3.8”  9. 1943 with 4.2” 10. 2011 with 4.5”.  Here is a fun fact the current 30 year annual mean total seasonal snow fall for Grand Rapids in 77..4” but in the above least snowy Decembers the mean annual total snow fall is just 48.6” ranging from a high of 79.1” in 1971/72 to a low of just 30.1” in 1906/07.  With just 6 days to go it is time to see how December 2018 ends up and how the winter of 2018/19 ends up.


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#1169
someweatherdude

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:46 AM

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AO forecast to spike big time into the New Year.  The hits just keep coming. 



#1170
Madtown

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:49 AM

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Put a fork in er

#1171
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:03 AM

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How was that December overall??? Any cold periods? Snow storms? Just curious how this month is comparing to that analog year.

The first snow hit a day or two after Thanksgiving. It was a very cold December. Snow. Very little melt. The roads remained with icy patches all winter.
When they say it was one for the books, it was. I left Aurora on Valentines Day and there was still several feet of snow on the ground. That day was very foggy as well as I caught the last plane out of Chicago in the afternoon. The winter to that point was frigid, snowy, and foggy.
Texas looked really good to this Texas kid as it was sunny and cool.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#1172
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:11 AM

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I want to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas!! You are all wonderful friends!!


Merry Christmas my Okie Buddy! Here's hoping 2019 is good to us all!
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#1173
GDR

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:08 AM

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Looking more and more like just a couple of days at normal temps then back to above for a good duration.

#1174
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Was 02-03 the season when it was really mild and hardly snowed? That was the worst winter ever.

 

Prolly thinking of '11-12 and the past 3 wks have felt just like that season, thus see Madtown's post below 

 

Put a fork in er


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1175
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:27 AM

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The first snow hit a day or two after Thanksgiving. It was a very cold December. Snow. Very little melt. The roads remained with icy patches all winter.
When they say it was one for the books, it was. I left Aurora on Valentines Day and there was still several feet of snow on the ground. That day was very foggy as well as I caught the last plane out of Chicago in the afternoon. The winter to that point was frigid, snowy, and foggy.
Texas looked really good to this Texas kid as it was sunny and cool.

 

Yeah, very little if any comparison to this season to date. I wouldn't be throwing around 77-78 as a top parallel analog seeing how December's going. This could still go more like '14-15 but my confidence is not very high right now tbh  :unsure:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1176
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:35 AM

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I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. Here at my house I stated the day started with a trace of snow on the ground and there was a light snow falling for most of the day. Officially GRR reported 0.4” of snow fall. And by late in the day I had a ½” snow cover. The snow is now starting to melt as the current temperature here is now up to 36° The total snow fall for Grand Rapids for December is now at 2.4” That has moved Grand Rapids up to 4th place in the all time least amount of December snow fall. the current list is 1. 2014 with 1.0” 2. 1913 with 2.3” 3. 1912 with 2.3” 4. 2018 2.4” 5. 2015 with 2.5” 6. 1979 with 2.6” 7. 1971 with 3.7” 8.  1906 with 3.8”  9. 1943 with 4.2” 10. 2011 with 4.5”.  Here is a fun fact the current 30 year annual mean total seasonal snow fall for Grand Rapids in 77..4” but in the above least snowy Decembers the mean annual total snow fall is just 48.6” ranging from a high of 79.1” in 1971/72 to a low of just 30.1” in 1906/07.  With just 6 days to go it is time to see how December 2018 ends up and how the winter of 2018/19 ends up.

 

If you saw my prior post that I might actually record less snow than Dec 2014, your list confirms my hunch that 4 yrs ago was one of the least snowy Dec's in SWMI history. Here we are again!! Although 1912 and 1913 proves that bad things can come in very close proximity in the world of weather. 

 

IF there's a chance to pull this thing out of the current nose-dive, we would need things to turn a corner in similar fashion as happened in 14-15. 

 

The current SSWE benefiting Siberia tho is always concerning. It may propagate to our side just like last Feb's did eventually, but I don't think that's a guaranteed outcome. 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1177
someweatherdude

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:40 AM

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I said as we were heading into fall that I was afraid that there was too much ridging in the interior west of the US for those of us in the middle part of the country to enjoy snow storms this winter (if that trend were to continue).  I still feel like that seems to be the case.  Am I wrong on that?



#1178
Tom

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:43 AM

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If you saw my prior post that I might actually record less snow than Dec 2014, your list confirms my hunch that 4 yrs ago was one of the least snowy Dec's in SWMI history. Here we are again!! Although 1912 and 1913 proves that bad things can come in very close proximity in the world of weather. 

 

IF there's a chance to pull this thing out of the current nose-dive, we would need things to turn a corner in similar fashion as happened in 14-15. 

 

The current SSWE benefiting Siberia tho is always concerning. It may propagate to our side just like last Feb's did eventually, but I don't think that's a guaranteed outcome. 

This almost always happen during the onset of the event which began around the 21st in Siberia/N Pole, then shifts into North America soon thereafter.  The pattern is going to snap at the close of this year and into the beginning of 2019.  From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.  


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#1179
Tom

Posted 26 December 2018 - 09:44 AM

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I said as we were heading into fall that I was afraid that there was too much ridging in the interior west of the US for those of us in the middle part of the country to enjoy snow storms this winter (if that trend were to continue).  I still feel like that seems to be the case.  Am I wrong on that?

Yes, your prob right and the opening 10 days or so of January may be pretty boring around the Plains.  You may have to wait till mid Jan for things to ramp up again.



#1180
TOL_Weather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Went ahead and started a January thread after seeing MJO discussion elsewhere. http://theweatherfor...on/#entry399517
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season: 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#1181
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:44 AM

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A day of rain moving in now.  Several waves of rain with the main front still out in west Texas. 

Nice big bow on that front.

Oklahoma seeing lots of heavy rain right now.

 

High 65  Low 50

Depoint 60*

Pressure 29.7

Wind 10mph with gusts to 20mph

 

Heavy dark cloud cover


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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#1182
TOL_Weather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:52 AM

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64°F here in SE TX and showers. Atmosphere is still too capped for TSRA. Capping should erode as the afternoon goes on, and we are in an enhanced risk zone for tonight as a QLCS comes through. Not loving the tornado potential. I think wind will be the only severe hazard tomorrow morning.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season: 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#1183
CentralNebWeather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:59 AM

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37 and heavy rain as of 2 pm.

#1184
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 01:08 PM

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64°F here in SE TX and showers. Atmosphere is still too capped for TSRA. Capping should erode as the afternoon goes on, and we are in an enhanced risk zone for tonight as a QLCS comes through. Not loving the tornado potential. I think wind will be the only severe hazard tomorrow morning.


Welcome to Texas. It's a very springlike day.
DFW is a mess of cancellations and backups due to lightning and high winds in the area.
Light rain so far with scattered heavier showers nearby.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#1185
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 01:30 PM

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NOAA:

 

(some hope perhaps?!)

 

Low confidence regarding precipitation chances through the extended
period, with the best chance coming late Monday into Tuesday as
overrunning across a baroclinic zone set up across the Ohio Valley
and advancing shortwave trough produces enough lift for precipitation
chances.



#1186
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 01:31 PM

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Currently at 39F w cloudy skies.

 

Btw: Light snow was falling on Christmas evening here in my area where the ground whiten up (dusting). Better than nothing I guess.


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#1187
Hoosier

Posted 26 December 2018 - 02:53 PM

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From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.


I agree. The bar is so low though considering how many areas have less than 1" in December so far.
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#1188
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 03:20 PM

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January looks quite cold, but dry. Hopefully, a storm or 2 or 3 can develop and produce a couple of snowstorms. We will see. At least it is looking like a much colder month than December.



#1189
Money

Posted 26 December 2018 - 03:30 PM

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I agree. The bar is so low though considering how many areas have less than 1" in December so far.


2 inches of snow here so far this winter

#1190
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 December 2018 - 04:26 PM

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Yeah, sorry guys but Im not seeing any glimmers of a storm anytime soon lol. But we know how quick things can change.


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1191
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 06:21 PM

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As a reminder, we also rang in 2015 with scant snow within our sub. Here's 12-31-14

 

Attached File  20141231 NOHRSC SN cvr.jpeg   82.98KB   1 downloads

 

I am not saying that winter went on to be the greatest, but it did finally give most some action. I actually experienced my snowiest calendar day of 16.5" with the Feb1-2 Big Dog. But we won't mention KBOS


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1192
Tom

Posted 26 December 2018 - 06:30 PM

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As a reminder, we also rang in 2015 with scant snow within our sub. Here's 12-31-14

20141231 NOHRSC SN cvr.jpeg

I am not saying that winter went on to be the greatest, but it did finally give most some action. I actually experienced my snowiest calendar day of 16.5" with the Feb1-2 Big Dog. But we won't mention KBOS

Interestingly, we had the Super Bowl Blizzard in Feb ‘15 that year and we may be talking something similar later in January. This year has already produced 2 or 3 Blizzards I believe across the central CONUS. Not the last.
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#1193
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 06:49 PM

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Rain on the way w possible record breaking temps by Friday. Currently at 35F.



#1194
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:02 PM

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Last year December, 2017 pics:  What a difference a year makes.......

DSC_0980-L.jpg

KVFQW7Z6FJGT5AC6KWEOFIASIM.jpg


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#1195
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:17 PM

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@ Niko

 

Yep, our Dec's have been feast or famine the past 5 yrs. Nice photos btw :)

 

PS-is that you and your doggies?


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1196
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:45 PM

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@ Niko

 

Yep, our Dec's have been feast or famine the past 5 yrs. Nice photos btw :)

 

PS-is that you and your doggies?

 

Thanks amigo.....

:lol: No sir!



#1197
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:49 PM

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1.55" of rain today at my house.
Tornado and severe weather area just west of DFW.

If I didn't know better, I'd say great Spring weather, but I do know better and cold is out there for us.
It isn't unusual for our Christmases and even New Years to be Spring-like. Then the tables turn.

That takes us up to 62.65" of rain for the year.

Stunning.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#1198
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 07:52 PM

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New from APX. Not very deep this evening, but I suspect that'll be changing going forward

 

Attached File  Screenshot_2018-12-26 Local - NWS Gaylord MI webcams.png   482.23KB   0 downloads

 

 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1199
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:05 PM

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Current temp at 32F w partly cloudy skies. Light winds reported at calm.



#1200
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:06 PM

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This almost always happen during the onset of the event which began around the 21st in Siberia/N Pole, then shifts into North America soon thereafter.  The pattern is going to snap at the close of this year and into the beginning of 2019.  From everything that I've been analyzing, Jan will be much more eventful, esp around this region going forward.  

 

Hmm..

 

000
FXUS63 KIWX 261120
AFDIWX  A sudden stratospheric warming event began over the north pole
region this week and this often sends a delayed arctic intrusion
plunging into the mid latitudes. 00z models seem to be picking up on
this with a dramatic shift to a possible arctic intrusion in
the day 7-10 period.
00z long term models have all come in very cold
for day 7 and beyond with general differences in strength and timing
of this cold air intrusion. Signal is there in most guidance and
blends with highs on New Years day or just after likely only in the
lower to middle 20s, possibly colder depending on timing. Could be a
decent lake response given increased instability but low to mid
chance pops in lake favored areas for now. Will also have to watch
closely energy ejecting out of southern jet stream. At this time,
this energy moves east just ahead of northern stream arctic
front. However, faster and more northward ejection of this feature
and its associated moisture could lend to more phasing and possible
storm system with this arctic front. Will be watching closely.

 

(Others have been saying the lag-time is more like 15-20 days from SSWE putting it closer to Jan 10th before the full effects are felt. They feel the models may be a bit trigger-happy)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."