August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

This MD was just posted...

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms continue east this
morning across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A gradual
increase in thunderstorm intensity through the morning should result
in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch at some point this
morning.

[Tom]

Boom!  A severe thunderstorm watch was just hoisted for a lot of us near the GL's...could this break the T-storm drought in GRR???

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

This thing became much better than I expected when I first woke up early this morning.  A big blob of light to moderate rain has now fillled in behind the line, extending the nice soak.  The school weather station closest to me says 1.35".

[Tom]

Severe storms have blossomed over NE IL as this morning is about to get rockin'....storm clouds have rolled in, skies have gotten real dark, very loud claps of thunder have started...let's rock!

 

 

[Tom]

Local reports suggest we picked up close to 1" of rain in about 30 min or so.  I love stormy mornings...too bad the Air & Water show starts in about an hour.  Taking a look at visible satellite imagery, there may be some clearing starting to take place across N/C IL.  I really don't feel like heading downtown today anyway.  Hopefully it clears out to those who will venture out and enjoy the show.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

350 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019
 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190800-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

350 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

Numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early this

evening. There is a slight risk of severe weather. The strongest

storms will be capable of wind gusts to 70 MPH and hail to one inch

in diameter as they move to the east at 40 MPH. All thunderstorms

will also produce brief yet intense rainfall rates. The chance for

severe weather will be greatest between 3 PM and 8 PM. An approaching

cold front and upper level low pressure system combined with moist

and unstable air will result in the risk for severe weather.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
 

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday as a cold front is

forecast to move across the region.

 

[Niko]

Today features to be very active here in SEMI. Hopefully, my area gets erased from the "Abnormally Dry" color.

 

 

Currently, its muggy w a mix of sun n clouds n temps are in the mid 70s. Dew is at a very uncomfortable 72F. UGH!

[westMJim]

At this time a area of showers and thunderstorms are in mid lake. The most lightning is between Kalamazoo and the state border, with some more lightning being detected around Muskegon.  I was going to water the grass but will wait and see how much rain we get from this system instead.  Grand Rapids has not had many storms watches of late but then again we have not had many storms either. The current temperature here at my house is 77 with a dew point of 69.

[westMJim]

Boom!  A severe thunderstorm watch was just hoisted for a lot of us near the GL's...could this break the T-storm drought in GRR???

At this time there is a lot of lightning that should come on shore and inland from Kalamazoo to the south not much lightning detected north of there and some lightning off shore of Muskegon I will let you know how this plays out once the line gets here. I as working today's baseball game here so not sure how that will play out. BTW there has not been any lightning on any of the game days here this year so far and our season ends in two weeks.

[Minny_Weather]

Slight risk for severe wx today. Sun's out so hoping that can heat us up a bit more.

 

[Hawkeye]

1.61" here this morning.  Fantastic!  It has been a long time since we've experienced one of our typical early morning MCSs with a solid rain shield lasting into mid morning.

[Tom]

12z GFS a little bolder with the cold shot into the GL's later this week...some chilly mornings on tap with very low DP's...most of MI should see a day with temps in the upper 60's/low 70's.  This will be a nice refreshing airmass after the humidity today and on Tuesday.

 

 

 

[Iowawx]

This storm was very impressive. A hail core moved right over my area, as seen on RadarScope screenshot and had good sized hail. I also got 1.70” of rain.

[Minny_Weather]

First time I've been placed under a warning since I moved here.
 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Lucas County in northwestern Ohio...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 157 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Swanton,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Swanton, Oregon, Sylvania, Waterville, Whitehouse, Holland,
Maumee, Ottawa Hills and Berkey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

[Stormy]

1.61" here this morning. Fantastic! It has been a long time since we've experienced one of our typical early morning MCSs with a solid rain shield lasting into mid morning.

Wow, nice, Hawkeye. I didn't have time to post my total as wanted to make it to church on time. That stratiform shield over performed compared to the main line & doubled my rainfall amount to a respectable 0.77". At least I don't need to water things now so I feel blessed even though I wanted at least 1" ! Max wind gust was 45mph this morning. Currently still warm and muggy.

[Niko]

Looks like storms are dissipating for semi.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has another MCS rolling ese through Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday morning.  The WPC has nothing during that period, nor does the GFS, so I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

Update:  DVN doesn't even mention the possibility in their afternoon discussion.

[Niko]

From looking at the radar, it will be a partly cloudy evening. Temps remaining warm and muggy.

[westMJim]

Just 0.14" of rain here from today's rain showers. There was no thunder here in NW Grand Rapids just a period of light rain and that is it. At This time it is 80 here with cloudy skies.

[St Paul Storm]

3.2” of rain overnight last night. Brings the monthly total to about 6” so far. That’s more than double the average total for August.

[Stacsh]

Control the market. Manipulation. Hide a crisis for a badly underrepresented group in the central US. Oppose a president. Same with the V.A. the evidence is plain. There are a thousand reasons. I could name many. Folks from a certain group would have to face the fact that they are destroying farmers and costing them everything that they have. They have done it since last winter and are doing it with blocking legislation that would help those who need it most. This isn't a political thread, but I know you're a smart guy.

How does the USDA miss 5 of the largest e-coli outbreaks of our lifetime? Those folks literally stand behind people and know everything they do every second of the day. If a guy touches his nose, he gets pulled off and forced to wash his hands. You tell me.

They are voting for people who don’t care about them due to social issues. Also The weather didn’t help. Please provide links how a “certain group” is intentionally destroying farmers.

Also “one side “ had control of Congress, Senate, and Executive from 2016-2018. ARural elections are 1-sided obviously. Get something done to help farmers. Quit blaming others. Enjoy the billions in bailout that are direct result of tariffs.

[Niko]

And here we go.....

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm WarningMIC099-147-190115-/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0062.190819T0013Z-190819T0115Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm WarningNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI813 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...  Macomb County in southeastern Michigan...  Southeastern St. Clair County in southeastern Michigan...* Until 915 PM EDT.* At 813 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rochester, or  near Troy, moving east at 40 mph.  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.  SOURCE...Radar indicated.  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.* This severe thunderstorm will be near...  Sterling Heights around 825 PM EDT.  Mount Clemens and Macomb Township around 830 PM EDT.  New Baltimore around 845 PM EDT.  Harsens Island around 855 PM EDT.  Algonac around 900 PM EDT.  St. Clair and Marine City around 905 PM EDT.

[Minny_Weather]

Nice thick line of heavy rain & lightning passing over now. About 3/4 of the way over. I'm easily over an inch of rain for the day, maybe even 2".

[OKwx2k4]

They are voting for people who don’t care about them due to social issues. Also The weather didn’t help. Please provide links how a “certain group” is intentionally destroying farmers.

Also “one side “ had control of Congress, Senate, and Executive from 2016-2018. ARural elections are 1-sided obviously. Get something done to help farmers. Quit blaming others. Enjoy the billions in bailout that are direct result of tariffs.

Well, it took him 2 years to get his own party to quit opposing him, so theres that. Lol.

 

I'm going to humbly accept your correction on that. USDA struggles with implementation and allowing liberty of small farmers to get their jobs done. They are the gatekeepers, so to speak.

When they released aid in June, it didn't make news. Good news rarely does anymore. I missed it.

Both sides did come to agreement in 2018 that farmers were getting the shaft. My prayer is that they will continue working with real people (who actually work, with real life experience, not "paper" farmers)to make real changes and stop boosting big agriculture. Theres a way to bring farming into the 21st century without industrializing/corporatizing it to death. We (all of us) DO have to do more to hold local rural representatives accountable for their actions, no matter the side and regardless of social issue/emotion.

We all have to work together regardless of what we think sometimes.

Thanks for sharply and intelligently correcting my misinformation and making me re-research. I sincerely apologize.

 

Sometimes I need to take a breath and remove my own emotion.

[Tom]

After a very stormy Sunday morning, the day turned out delightful with wisps of high altitude cirrus clouds.  Generally speaking, about 1-2" of rain fell in a short period of time which the vegetation needed badly.  My lawn is finally starting to turn greener.  Looking forward to the cooler and more comfortable weather later this week.

 

Models are holding pretty steady that a rather strong Summer/early Autumn CF will target the central CONUS during the last week of the month.  Ahhh, can we finally say good bye to the heat up north???  I think a rather cool Labor Day holiday is in the works this year unlike recent years.  The way the atmosphere has been behaving, it would not surprise me to see some wound up autumn storms to close out this month across the north.  I could just sense we are amidst some very interesting weather just around the corner.

 

Hello September!

 

[Tom]

Let's see if this happens...the Euro/GFS/ICON all suggesting the "Yoopers" up in the U.P. may have a day this week with a high in the...upper 50's or at the very least low 60's???  The 00z Euro is even showing upper 60's for highs on Friday here in Chicago and MKE area with a wind off the lake.  #TasteofAutumn

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The other models & WPC have now jumped on board the MCS rolling across Iowa tonight.  It appears, however, that the southwest half of the state is favored.

[Niko]

Picked up ova a half inch last night w vivid lightning and 40mph winds. Afterwards, nice lightning storm in the far distance developed and did not stop until well after midnight. No wind damage reported here but farther south towards Detroit, they had some uprooted trees I heard.

 

Beautiful sunny morning here w a temp of 72 and dew is at 70F. Its quite humid outside and more storms to follow, especially tomorrow afternoon as the CF approaches.

[Niko]

Nice cooldown coming by midweek as temps stay in the low 70s for highs and lows in the low 50s. Could there be some upper 40s in spots???!!! Remains to be seen! Bonfire night for sure.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z HRRR and 3k NAM have shifted tonight's MCS just a bit northeast, so CR/IC get it, too.

[jaster220]

  SWMI trying to act like Mexico or at least the US Rockies!

 

Guess I missed this last week:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/whopping-18-inches-of-hail-accumulates-in-parts-of-michigan/70009085

 

(the vid's actually kinda lame. Justwatch the 2nd one after it for something with a higher amusement factor)

[Hawkeye]

[East Dubzz]

Looks like it's gonna just miss south of here. Hope I can get lucky, but I'm guessing just a few showers at best. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Yuck.  88 degrees, Heat index of 102 with a 78 dew.  We have football practice at 4 PM.  Looks like tomorrow is fairly similar and finally by Wednesday we cool off to the upper 70's.  Ready for Fall.

[Tom]

Yuck.  88 degrees, Heat index of 102 with a 78 dew.  We have football practice at 4 PM.  Looks like tomorrow is fairly similar and finally by Wednesday we cool off to the upper 70's.  Ready for Fall.

Hang in there bud, while us near the GL's get a taste of Fall later this week, I think all of us will certainly be feeling Autumn "chill" the following week.  A big time CF is in the works as the pattern amps up and loads up on some early season Autumnal air.

[Tom]

The MCS signal on the CAM's looks great for IA/IL folks...this could be one of the better severe wx hits of the season for you guys.  Iowa city may be checking this one of his bucket list for the season.

 

[Tom]

@ OKwx, the CPC boys are now seeing some cooler air finally down by you later next week...Autumn is coming

[CentralNebWeather]

Just checked, it is now 90 with Heat index of 105 with Dew of 78.  Many factors involved, with corn adding alot of moisture to the atmosphere.

[Hawkeye]

Des Moines NWS thinks there could be a band of 2-4" of rain over central Iowa, with isolated 5".

[Niko]

  SWMI trying to act like Mexico or at least the US Rockies!

 

Guess I missed this last week:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/whopping-18-inches-of-hail-accumulates-in-parts-of-michigan/70009085

 

(the vid's actually kinda lame. Justwatch the 2nd one after it for something with a higher amusement factor)

wow