March 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

60's and sunny (in a stretch) qualifies as "spring" in my book, not 50's with rain. I see SMI stuck in Wx Purgatory going forward this month. Not really winter, not really spring. Caught in between two seasons. More "blah" wx on tap it would seem. Yes, those ensemble maps paint a few inches of snow, but cut those in half as a rule (here any ways), and you get one event that coats the ground for a day or two, or a few dustings added up. As westMJim has posted, we are not on any roll wrt decent March snow hits (April's actually been better, lol) so I am now officially in stat pad season myself.

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

Going to break some records tomorrow, severe weather possible Sunday evening then snow may fall next week.  I should see it all in the next 10 days.

[Andie]

Currently 77*.  Saturday will have a high of 81* 

See ya at the beach !!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Topped out at 73.6 IMBY so not quite as high as I expected. Still a beautiful day with birds singing everywhere including Robins and Cardinals!

Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer though.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

32 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Topped out at 73.6 IMBY so not quite as high as I expected. Still a beautiful day with birds singing everywhere including Robins and Cardinals!

Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer though.

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

[Tom]

Just grilled some thighs and zucchini for the 1st time this season.  Felt nice in the sun but the lake breeze kicked in and dropped temps a bit into low 40’s.  Sat is looking prime time for some nice Spring weather.  Euro showing 67F for a high…  

[OmahaSnowFan]

17 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the high was 74. 

[Niko]

First 60s of the season by Sunday. Man, that will feel awesome. Hello March!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not good at all. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

Oh yeah I remember him! I didn't know he came up here.

[Tom]

As we have entered a new month, a new season, an entirely different pattern is evolving up in the STRAT.  It was against seasonal trends but the PV is about to Split and send one lobe of the PV into North America.

 

What happens next is even more intriguing and fascinating bc the impulses of warming at 10mb are growing stronger over the North Pole and into Greenland by Day 9.  This is a big clue that the models should trend towards a -NAO by the 10th/11th, interestingly, this is when a potentially lucrative pattern sets up across the central Sub to provide an "avenue of storms".  Could this be the blocking set up to deliver a powerhouse?  There could be  2 big dogs on the table between the 10th-15th.  Iirc, I posted several LR GEFS maps and Euro weeklies some time ago that were suggesting this period to be one to wrecken with in terms of cold/winter to blast the central Sub.  I give them credit bc the trends are leaning this way of late.

0z Euro 10mb warming evolution...

 

Bullseye...

 

0z EPS snow mean between the 10th-16th...Ol' Man Winter ain't done just yet...TBH, my gut tells me that based on what is going on in the Strat and MJO, Winter is not going to let go to easy this year.  Obviously, there will be periods where the Plains warm up rapidly due to the time of year and pattern/seasonal trends, but for the most part, those members up north and near the MW/GL's region it doesn't look to pretty.   

 

 

[Clinton]

6z GEFS showing the large storm system traveling through the middle of the country.  March 10th-13th

 

[westMJim]

With mostly clear skies the overnight low here fell to 19 the official overnight low at the airport was 20. At the current time it is mostly sunny, there is a lot of frost with a temperature of 22.

[MIKEKC]

KC Weather: LRC cycle length (61-66 days) 

LRC Cycle 1: October 27th -30th, large multi disturbance storm push through the central plains giving KC 1-3 inches of rain 

LRC Cycle 2: (65 days later) Jan. 1st/2nd, ice storm here in KC followed by 2 inches of snow

LRC Cycle 3: (63 days later) Storm in the Plains with multiple disturbances trending on the latest data. For KC, storms on the front Saturday followed by a wetter disturbance Sunday into Monday, ending in a possible snow event. 

Back on Feb. 7th,(FEB 2022 Observations is where you can find it) I posted the storms LRC cycle one and used the LRC to forecast this active stretch starting Feb. 15th. Here in KC, I mentioned we were well below average on snowfall up to that point and that we may finish the season above average based on the 30-35 day active stretch the LRC would bring in cycle 3 Starting Feb. 15th and lasting through Mid March. So far, we are well on our way as KC recorded  10-14 inches during the second half of FEB. Unfortunately, when in a cycle pattern during the winter, the same areas that have been missed will mostly continue to be missed, the upcoming Cycle 3 storm looks to be no different for those areas. Now, as the jet stream retreats north as spring settles in, the storm track in cycle 4 and 5 will likely shift farther north and the areas missed during the winter could very well turn wet. We'll see what the indexes are at that time and how they affect the storm track.  

 

Receipts, I have them!!  

[james1976]

Pushing 60 today. Snowcover is virtually gone. Looks like 60 this Saturday as well with strong t-storms.

[FV-Mike]

57 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I remember living in the Twin Cities, and one day in March it was cold and snowy.  I was shocked when I watched the weather that evening and saw that it had been in the 70s in Iowa City.  I wasn't as big a weather nerd back then, and I had no idea there was warm weather going on in neighboring states at the time.  

I experience this a lot with my travels from Chicago area to Des Moines.  I remember leaving in march a couple years back and at 10am at my house it was in the  low 40's. When I got to Des Moines in the afternoon it was sunny and low 60's. 

[Tom]

Boy, this will feel amazing if the forecast holds...close to 70F???  Time to break out the shorts and T's...

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already almost 76 degrees and 42 degrees warmer than the low this morning AND it’s only 1220p!

[james1976]

33 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Already almost 76 degrees and 42 degrees warmer than the low this morning AND it’s only 1220p!

Wow what is the record?

[james1976]

GFS flashing a snowstorm around the 12th with Arctic air behind it. Does it stick?

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro, wash, rinse, repeat.  Really just beyond belief at this point.  The same dry slot we've seen for months.  When does this pattern end?  My gosh.

[mlgamer]

Bright sunshine, very light to no breeze and 83 here. Feels like an early summer day. Can't complain at all [sips glass of ice tea].

[snowstorm83]

Already 80 at KLNK, after a low of 26 degrees. Low temps are often 5-10 degrees warmer in the rest of the city, but still an insane spread regardless. 

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro, wash, rinse, repeat.  Really just beyond belief at this point.  The same dry slot we've seen for months.  When does this pattern end?  My gosh.

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 

[CentralNebWeather]

76 degrees with 20% humidity.  Not helping at all with the ongoing drought conditions.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 

I'm with you.  What looked like a slam dunk for precipitation, rain, thunderstorms, snow, is not looking as promising.  NWS Hastings disco this morning was very pessimistic of anything more than a few hundredths or less in the next 10 days.  Even they are frustrated.

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Wow what is the record?

I believe the record today is 76 at the airport. I've climbed to 78.5 now, but the airport was still at 76 so the record has at least been tied!

[CentralNebWeather]

Normally by this time of year, you start to see some green show up in yards.  This year it is just a depressing brown and yellow everywhere.  People have started to water trees and yards with hoses and sprinklers as they don't want to turn on underground water systems yet.  I have watered my trees, and when I come back, there is no standing water, all of it soaked in.  I let the hose run on my yard the other day for an hour and came back to having all of the water sink into the ground.  Never can remember it being this dry at the start of March.  It is going to go from serious to worse around this area without appreciable moisture before planting begins next month.

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids has risen above 60º for the first time this year.  Nebraskans have been basking in 60s and 70s for a month, but 60º is a nice milestone for colder northeast Iowa.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Very rare indeed.

[Madtown]

22 and .5" of snow today

[OmahaSnowFan]

Boom! Missed it when it happened on my weather station, but I climbed to 80.1 degrees IMBY at 211p.

[OmahaSnowFan]

24 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Normally by this time of year, you start to see some green show up in yards.  This year it is just a depressing brown and yellow everywhere.  People have started to water trees and yards with hoses and sprinklers as they don't want to turn on underground water systems yet.  I have watered my trees, and when I come back, there is no standing water, all of it soaked in.  I let the hose run on my yard the other day for an hour and came back to having all of the water sink into the ground.  Never can remember it being this dry at the start of March.  It is going to go from serious to worse around this area without appreciable moisture before planting begins next month.

I was looking at my bulbs coming up already and they look a little “weak”. I’m going to give them some water a bit later

[Clinton]

Record broken!

It's 82° at KCI this hour. That 121 year old record didn't stand a chance. We will see if we can add a degree or two to that this afternoon.

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

21 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

GFS telling me it's going to snow for 48 straight hours in KC 3/10-3/12. 

 

If I had all the snow the long range GFS showed all winter, we’d have glaciers around here.

[OmahaSnowFan]

So far this month, I'm averaging 32.8/76.9 for temps. Too bad that won't hold up.

It's already back down to 41 degrees, so it's dropped nearly 40 degrees in 6 hours with a cold north wind now blowing again.

Tomorrow it's only supposed to reach 50...which is still above average for the day.

[Stacsh]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

If I had all the snow the long range GFS showed all winter, we’d have glaciers around here.

I’d have at least 300” but sitting at 62.  So yeah.  Models over 5 days out are still garbage at predicting snow.   

[Tom]

It's back to the Winter feel today, but I got my eyes set for SAT...

[westMJim]

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41. With clear skies the official overnight low was 17 here at my house I had a high yesterday of 42 and the overnight low was a kind of cold 14. At this time it is clear and 18 here. As is common this time of year there looks to be a few ups and downs in the weather the next week or more. Temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's one day and in the low to mid 30's or even colder are common for the rest of March and big swings  can still happen well into April. The only snow left here is in the woods and the snow piles in other areas.

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41. With clear skies the official overnight low was 17 here at my house I had a high yesterday of 42 and the overnight low was a kind of cold 14. At this time it is clear and 18 here. As is common this time of year there looks to be a few ups and downs in the weather the next week or more. Temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's one day and in the low to mid 30's or even colder are common for the rest of March and big swings  can still happen well into April. The only snow left here is in the woods and the snow piles in other areas.

Curious.  What's our record snowfall for March in GR?  I have a feeling we are going to see some decent snowfall events the next 2 weeks.  At least the possibility of it anyway.  Already talking 3-6 Monday.   

[westMJim]

26 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Curious.  What's our record snowfall for March in GR?  I have a feeling we are going to see some decent snowfall events the next 2 weeks.  At least the possibility of it anyway.  Already talking 3-6 Monday.   

The monthly record for any March at Grand Rapids is 36.0" in 1965. There was 25.9" in 1971, 25.3" in 1932 and 22.6" in 2002. The biggest snow storms are 15.6" on March 2 and 3rd 2002 with 13.6" falling on the 2nd and then 2.0" on the 3rd. On March 14th 1904 10.5" fell with another 1.0" on the 15th and then 6" on the 17th On March 25th 1970 3" before midnight and then 10.2" fell after midnight for a storm total of 13.2".

[CentralNebWeather]

The beat goes on.  To add insult to injury, NWS Hastings has taken out most moisture chances for the next 10 days at least, as storms go around us in all directions.  Just a very sad situation that we are dealing with, and no signs of letting up.  

 

[tStacsh]

40 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The monthly record for any March at Grand Rapids is 36.0" in 1965. There was 25.9" in 1971, 25.3" in 1932 and 22.6" in 2002. The biggest snow storms are 15.6" on March 2 and 3rd 2002 with 13.6" falling on the 2nd and then 2.0" on the 3rd. On March 14th 1904 10.5" fell with another 1.0" on the 15th and then 6" on the 17th On March 25th 1970 3" before midnight and then 10.2" fell after midnight for a storm total of 13.2".

Interesting, more than I thought.  Thanks. 

[Hawkeye]

Models are currently suggesting a big blast of arctic air will dive into the central/eastern US next weekend.  The GFS looks identical to the Euro.

[Tom]

Both EPS/GEFS are sorta beginning to line up for an interesting system next weekend as a powerful Arctic Front rages south across the heartland while a SLP tries to develop along it and tracks somewhere up through the Lower Lakes/OHV.  This one has the potential to go Big but as we have seen this year a lot has to happen in order for that outcome to transpire.  Teleconnections do support a good chance for a solid Spring storm but nature will have the final say.

Meantime, Winter will not let go for a lot of those across the northern 1/2 of the Sub...this map looks like a JAN 20th map rather than a MAR 20th....

 

Oh, and by the way, if the GFS/GEFS/GEPS are onto something, PV Split Round 2 late month???

 

 

Oh boy, this would be a dagger to Spring up north, the exception would be around the central Plains and S MW/SE where I believe the ridge will be trying to migrate N as we head into late MAR and APR.

 

 

Ha, 10-12" snow mean for IA thru the GL's....

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Both EPS/GEFS are sorta beginning to line up for an interesting system next weekend as a powerful Arctic Front rages south across the heartland while a SLP tries to develop along it and tracks somewhere up through the Lower Lakes/OHV.  This one has the potential to go Big but as we have seen this year a lot has to happen in order for that outcome to transpire.  Teleconnections do support a good chance for a solid Spring storm but nature will have the final say.

Meantime, Winter will not let go for a lot of those across the northern 1/2 of the Sub...this map looks like a JAN 20th map then a MAR 20th....

 

Oh, and by the way, if the GFS/GEFS/GEPS are onto something, PV Split Round 2 late month???

 

 

Oh boy, this would be a dagger to Spring up north, the exception would be around the central Plains and S MW/SE where I believe the ridge will be trying to migrate N as we head into late MAR and APR.

 

 

Ha, 10-12" snow mean for IA thru the GL's....

A massive share the wealth storm in the middle of March?  Looks like I will have highs struggling to get to 20 a week from now.  These might be the most impressive 96hr maps at  this range I've seen all season.

[james1976]

60s and severe storms one weekend to artic air and snow the next weekend. Wouldn't surprise me with this season. And it is March.