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March 2022 Observations and Discussions


Hawkeye

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43 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Would also like another (though haven't been many) plowable snow to test my new snow blower that arrived yesterday.  I went electric.  

The last time Grand Rapids had a official 5" or more snow fall in March was on March 21, 2008. As for a 3" snow fall. There were reported 3" snow falls on April 14, 2019 and April 8, 2016. I did not live in Grand Rapids at the time but there were some big time snow storms when I lived in Bay City with 22" on March 17 1973 (7.5" at GR) and 14" on April 2/3 1975 (10" here in GR) but if we do not get your snow in the next two weeks you may have to wait until next winter.

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GFS is always wrong about the cold in medium and long range forecasts in March. Every year I watch it and think I'm going to get two more weeks of snowboarding, and it always ends way sooner.

The rain storm this weekend will really destroy everything, going to ride this week like it's my last of the season. I hope it weakens a lot.

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Recap for the winter of 2021/22. meteorological winter at Grand Rapids had a mean of 26.3 that is -1.0. December’s mean of 34.5 was the warmest since 2015 but January’s mean of 20.2 was the coldest since 2014. As to snow fall the total snow fall so far this season is now at 64.9” That is -3.4” from where GR should be by March 1st At Muskegon they only have had 48.1” of snow so far this season and they are now -29.8 from where they should be on March 1st Over at Lansing they are at 50.8” and they are +8.2” from where they should be now.  At Grand Rapids there has been at least 1” of snow on the ground for 66 days so far this season the 30 year average is 67 days. So temperature wise this has been a rather typical winter season and the total snow fall has been variable but much less than average at the lake shore. 

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Wait. I thought this year, was alternating wet/dry, 60-65 day cycles? That would mean the same “wet” LRC would actually be from 120-130 days ago. When there was a storm mid February we weren’t using the big tornado outbreak storm in December, but rather the storms in October. But now we’re using a big wet storm from January (that was way north) to justify a big storm in March?🙄🙄🙄

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Mid 50's here and mostly sunny.

It has been a few weeks since my last measurable snow. Other than a mere tease or two for winter, looks like the weather is going to be mild from this point on.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 52
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 6/23, 6/25, 6/29, 7/3, 7/4, 7/5, 7/14, 7/16, 7/30
8/1, 8/2, 8/8, 8/16, 8/17, 8/29, 8/30, 8/31, 9/6, 9/21
9/24, 9/27, 

Severe storms: 4
Max High: 98 (feels like 106 on Aug 30)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 hours ago, Stacsh said:

GFS is so bad in the long range temp wise.  It’s a garbage model at thermals.  Always add 5-10 degree to what it’s showing after 180 hours.  Also, with sun, add 5 degrees everyday to your temp forecast.  

 

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Not for our region and points SE…yo-yo temp swings…I’m sure you saw the temp animation off the EPS.  That should justify a delay for any sustained Spring like temps for a while.

60's and sunny (in a stretch) qualifies as "spring" in my book, not 50's with rain. I see SMI stuck in Wx Purgatory going forward this month. Not really winter, not really spring. Caught in between two seasons. More "blah" wx on tap it would seem. Yes, those ensemble maps paint a few inches of snow, but cut those in half as a rule (here any ways), and you get one event that coats the ground for a day or two, or a few dustings added up. As westMJim has posted, we are not on any roll wrt decent March snow hits (April's actually been better, lol) so I am now officially in stat pad season myself.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Wait. I thought this year, was alternating wet/dry, 60-65 day cycles? That would mean the same “wet” LRC would actually be from 120-130 days ago. When there was a storm mid February we weren’t using the big tornado outbreak storm in December, but rather the storms in October. But now we’re using a big wet storm from January (that was way north) to justify a big storm in March?🙄🙄🙄

Anxiously awaiting the “creative” explanation 🤔 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

60's and sunny (in a stretch) qualifies as "spring" in my book, not 50's with rain. I see SMI stuck in Wx Purgatory going forward this month. Not really winter, not really spring. Caught in between two seasons. More "blah" wx on tap it would seem. Yes, those ensemble maps paint a few inches of snow, but cut those in half as a rule (here any ways), and you get one event that coats the ground for a day or two, or a few dustings added up. As westMJim has posted, we are not on any roll wrt decent March snow hits (April's actually been better, lol) so I am now officially in stat pad season myself.

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

Going to break some records tomorrow, severe weather possible Sunday evening then snow may fall next week.  I should see it all in the next 10 days.

Tab2FileL.png

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Currently 77*.  Saturday will have a high of 81* 

See ya at the beach !!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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32 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Topped out at 73.6 IMBY so not quite as high as I expected. Still a beautiful day with birds singing everywhere including Robins and Cardinals!

Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer though.

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Just grilled some thighs and zucchini for the 1st time this season.  Felt nice in the sun but the lake breeze kicked in and dropped temps a bit into low 40’s.  Sat is looking prime time for some nice Spring weather.  Euro showing 67F for a high… ☀️ 

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17 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

Oh yeah I remember him! I didn't know he came up here.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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As we have entered a new month, a new season, an entirely different pattern is evolving up in the STRAT.  It was against seasonal trends but the PV is about to Split and send one lobe of the PV into North America.

1.png

 

What happens next is even more intriguing and fascinating bc the impulses of warming at 10mb are growing stronger over the North Pole and into Greenland by Day 9.  This is a big clue that the models should trend towards a -NAO by the 10th/11th, interestingly, this is when a potentially lucrative pattern sets up across the central Sub to provide an "avenue of storms".  Could this be the blocking set up to deliver a powerhouse?  There could be  2 big dogs on the table between the 10th-15th.  Iirc, I posted several LR GEFS maps and Euro weeklies some time ago that were suggesting this period to be one to wrecken with in terms of cold/winter to blast the central Sub.  I give them credit bc the trends are leaning this way of late.

0z Euro 10mb warming evolution...

2.png

 

Bullseye...

3.png

 

0z EPS snow mean between the 10th-16th...Ol' Man Winter ain't done just yet...TBH, my gut tells me that based on what is going on in the Strat and MJO, Winter is not going to let go to easy this year.  Obviously, there will be periods where the Plains warm up rapidly due to the time of year and pattern/seasonal trends, but for the most part, those members up north and near the MW/GL's region it doesn't look to pretty.   

1.gif

 

 

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KC Weather: LRC cycle length (61-66 days) 

LRC Cycle 1: October 27th -30th, large multi disturbance storm push through the central plains giving KC 1-3 inches of rain 

LRC Cycle 2: (65 days later) Jan. 1st/2nd, ice storm here in KC followed by 2 inches of snow

LRC Cycle 3: (63 days later) Storm in the Plains with multiple disturbances trending on the latest data. For KC, storms on the front Saturday followed by a wetter disturbance Sunday into Monday, ending in a possible snow event. 

Back on Feb. 7th,(FEB 2022 Observations is where you can find it) I posted the storms LRC cycle one and used the LRC to forecast this active stretch starting Feb. 15th. Here in KC, I mentioned we were well below average on snowfall up to that point and that we may finish the season above average based on the 30-35 day active stretch the LRC would bring in cycle 3 Starting Feb. 15th and lasting through Mid March. So far, we are well on our way as KC recorded  10-14 inches during the second half of FEB. Unfortunately, when in a cycle pattern during the winter, the same areas that have been missed will mostly continue to be missed, the upcoming Cycle 3 storm looks to be no different for those areas. Now, as the jet stream retreats north as spring settles in, the storm track in cycle 4 and 5 will likely shift farther north and the areas missed during the winter could very well turn wet. We'll see what the indexes are at that time and how they affect the storm track.  

 

Receipts, I have them!!  

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57 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I remember living in the Twin Cities, and one day in March it was cold and snowy.  I was shocked when I watched the weather that evening and saw that it had been in the 70s in Iowa City.  I wasn't as big a weather nerd back then, and I had no idea there was warm weather going on in neighboring states at the time.  

I experience this a lot with my travels from Chicago area to Des Moines.  I remember leaving in march a couple years back and at 10am at my house it was in the  low 40's. When I got to Des Moines in the afternoon it was sunny and low 60's. 

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Already 80 at KLNK, after a low of 26 degrees. Low temps are often 5-10 degrees warmer in the rest of the city, but still an insane spread regardless. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro, wash, rinse, repeat.  Really just beyond belief at this point.  The same dry slot we've seen for months.  When does this pattern end?  My gosh.

12Z Euro 3 2.png

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 😂

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 😂

I'm with you.  What looked like a slam dunk for precipitation, rain, thunderstorms, snow, is not looking as promising.  NWS Hastings disco this morning was very pessimistic of anything more than a few hundredths or less in the next 10 days.  Even they are frustrated.

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Normally by this time of year, you start to see some green show up in yards.  This year it is just a depressing brown and yellow everywhere.  People have started to water trees and yards with hoses and sprinklers as they don't want to turn on underground water systems yet.  I have watered my trees, and when I come back, there is no standing water, all of it soaked in.  I let the hose run on my yard the other day for an hour and came back to having all of the water sink into the ground.  Never can remember it being this dry at the start of March.  It is going to go from serious to worse around this area without appreciable moisture before planting begins next month.

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