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March 2022 Observations and Discussions


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4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Wait. I thought this year, was alternating wet/dry, 60-65 day cycles? That would mean the same “wet” LRC would actually be from 120-130 days ago. When there was a storm mid February we weren’t using the big tornado outbreak storm in December, but rather the storms in October. But now we’re using a big wet storm from January (that was way north) to justify a big storm in March?🙄🙄🙄

Anxiously awaiting the “creative” explanation 🤔 

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

60's and sunny (in a stretch) qualifies as "spring" in my book, not 50's with rain. I see SMI stuck in Wx Purgatory going forward this month. Not really winter, not really spring. Caught in between two seasons. More "blah" wx on tap it would seem. Yes, those ensemble maps paint a few inches of snow, but cut those in half as a rule (here any ways), and you get one event that coats the ground for a day or two, or a few dustings added up. As westMJim has posted, we are not on any roll wrt decent March snow hits (April's actually been better, lol) so I am now officially in stat pad season myself.

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

This x100...more blah weather...those down by Clinton/KC posters and certainly @Timmy_Supercellwill see some great warm days early on, but the middle of the month may be a bit murky.  Late month the ridge will try to build up from the S/SW ushering Spring or even Summer type weather, esp down in OK/TX.

Going to break some records tomorrow, severe weather possible Sunday evening then snow may fall next week.  I should see it all in the next 10 days.

Tab2FileL.png

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Currently 77*.  Saturday will have a high of 81* 

See ya at the beach !!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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32 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Topped out at 73.6 IMBY so not quite as high as I expected. Still a beautiful day with birds singing everywhere including Robins and Cardinals!

Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer though.

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Just grilled some thighs and zucchini for the 1st time this season.  Felt nice in the sun but the lake breeze kicked in and dropped temps a bit into low 40’s.  Sat is looking prime time for some nice Spring weather.  Euro showing 67F for a high… ☀️ 

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17 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

The version of me from 4 years ago would be cringing at how jealous I am right now.

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

Oh yeah I remember him! I didn't know he came up here.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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As we have entered a new month, a new season, an entirely different pattern is evolving up in the STRAT.  It was against seasonal trends but the PV is about to Split and send one lobe of the PV into North America.

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What happens next is even more intriguing and fascinating bc the impulses of warming at 10mb are growing stronger over the North Pole and into Greenland by Day 9.  This is a big clue that the models should trend towards a -NAO by the 10th/11th, interestingly, this is when a potentially lucrative pattern sets up across the central Sub to provide an "avenue of storms".  Could this be the blocking set up to deliver a powerhouse?  There could be  2 big dogs on the table between the 10th-15th.  Iirc, I posted several LR GEFS maps and Euro weeklies some time ago that were suggesting this period to be one to wrecken with in terms of cold/winter to blast the central Sub.  I give them credit bc the trends are leaning this way of late.

0z Euro 10mb warming evolution...

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Bullseye...

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0z EPS snow mean between the 10th-16th...Ol' Man Winter ain't done just yet...TBH, my gut tells me that based on what is going on in the Strat and MJO, Winter is not going to let go to easy this year.  Obviously, there will be periods where the Plains warm up rapidly due to the time of year and pattern/seasonal trends, but for the most part, those members up north and near the MW/GL's region it doesn't look to pretty.   

1.gif

 

 

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KC Weather: LRC cycle length (61-66 days) 

LRC Cycle 1: October 27th -30th, large multi disturbance storm push through the central plains giving KC 1-3 inches of rain 

LRC Cycle 2: (65 days later) Jan. 1st/2nd, ice storm here in KC followed by 2 inches of snow

LRC Cycle 3: (63 days later) Storm in the Plains with multiple disturbances trending on the latest data. For KC, storms on the front Saturday followed by a wetter disturbance Sunday into Monday, ending in a possible snow event. 

Back on Feb. 7th,(FEB 2022 Observations is where you can find it) I posted the storms LRC cycle one and used the LRC to forecast this active stretch starting Feb. 15th. Here in KC, I mentioned we were well below average on snowfall up to that point and that we may finish the season above average based on the 30-35 day active stretch the LRC would bring in cycle 3 Starting Feb. 15th and lasting through Mid March. So far, we are well on our way as KC recorded  10-14 inches during the second half of FEB. Unfortunately, when in a cycle pattern during the winter, the same areas that have been missed will mostly continue to be missed, the upcoming Cycle 3 storm looks to be no different for those areas. Now, as the jet stream retreats north as spring settles in, the storm track in cycle 4 and 5 will likely shift farther north and the areas missed during the winter could very well turn wet. We'll see what the indexes are at that time and how they affect the storm track.  

 

Receipts, I have them!!  

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16 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

one of my favorite meteorologists from Omaha just moved to Minneapolis a couple of months ago to work up there. Matt Serwe is his name. He still comments on how different the weather is up there vs down here on days like this.

I remember living in the Twin Cities, and one day in March it was cold and snowy.  I was shocked when I watched the weather that evening and saw that it had been in the 70s in Iowa City.  I wasn't as big a weather nerd back then, and I had no idea there was warm weather going on in neighboring states at the time.  

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57 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I remember living in the Twin Cities, and one day in March it was cold and snowy.  I was shocked when I watched the weather that evening and saw that it had been in the 70s in Iowa City.  I wasn't as big a weather nerd back then, and I had no idea there was warm weather going on in neighboring states at the time.  

I experience this a lot with my travels from Chicago area to Des Moines.  I remember leaving in march a couple years back and at 10am at my house it was in the  low 40's. When I got to Des Moines in the afternoon it was sunny and low 60's. 

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7 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

I experience this a lot with my travels from Chicago area to Des Moines.  I remember leaving in march a couple years back and at 10am at my house it was in the  low 40's. When I got to Des Moines in the afternoon it was sunny and low 60's. 

I went back and actually found the date.  It was March 24, 1996.  It snowed 10 inches in the Twin Cities on the 24th and 25th.  It was 66 degrees in Iowa City on the 24th and 64 degrees on the 25th.  So it wasn't quite the 70s.  My brain exaggerated the memory a little bit.  But pretty close. 

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Bright sunshine, very light to no breeze and 83 here. Feels like an early summer day. Can't complain at all [sips glass of ice tea]. 🙂

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Already 80 at KLNK, after a low of 26 degrees. Low temps are often 5-10 degrees warmer in the rest of the city, but still an insane spread regardless. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro, wash, rinse, repeat.  Really just beyond belief at this point.  The same dry slot we've seen for months.  When does this pattern end?  My gosh.

12Z Euro 3 2.png

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 😂

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'm going to be in absolute shock the next time steady precipitation actually falls from the sky for more than 5 minutes 😂

I'm with you.  What looked like a slam dunk for precipitation, rain, thunderstorms, snow, is not looking as promising.  NWS Hastings disco this morning was very pessimistic of anything more than a few hundredths or less in the next 10 days.  Even they are frustrated.

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Normally by this time of year, you start to see some green show up in yards.  This year it is just a depressing brown and yellow everywhere.  People have started to water trees and yards with hoses and sprinklers as they don't want to turn on underground water systems yet.  I have watered my trees, and when I come back, there is no standing water, all of it soaked in.  I let the hose run on my yard the other day for an hour and came back to having all of the water sink into the ground.  Never can remember it being this dry at the start of March.  It is going to go from serious to worse around this area without appreciable moisture before planting begins next month.

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Cedar Rapids has risen above 60º for the first time this year.  Nebraskans have been basking in 60s and 70s for a month, but 60º is a nice milestone for colder northeast Iowa.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Normally by this time of year, you start to see some green show up in yards.  This year it is just a depressing brown and yellow everywhere.  People have started to water trees and yards with hoses and sprinklers as they don't want to turn on underground water systems yet.  I have watered my trees, and when I come back, there is no standing water, all of it soaked in.  I let the hose run on my yard the other day for an hour and came back to having all of the water sink into the ground.  Never can remember it being this dry at the start of March.  It is going to go from serious to worse around this area without appreciable moisture before planting begins next month.

I was looking at my bulbs coming up already and they look a little “weak”. I’m going to give them some water a bit later

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So far this month, I'm averaging 32.8/76.9 for temps. Too bad that won't hold up.😆

It's already back down to 41 degrees, so it's dropped nearly 40 degrees in 6 hours with a cold north wind now blowing again.

Tomorrow it's only supposed to reach 50...which is still above average for the day.

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

If I had all the snow the long range GFS showed all winter, we’d have glaciers around here. 😂

I’d have at least 300” but sitting at 62.  So yeah.  Models over 5 days out are still garbage at predicting snow.   

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The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41. With clear skies the official overnight low was 17 here at my house I had a high yesterday of 42 and the overnight low was a kind of cold 14. At this time it is clear and 18 here. As is common this time of year there looks to be a few ups and downs in the weather the next week or more. Temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's one day and in the low to mid 30's or even colder are common for the rest of March and big swings  can still happen well into April. The only snow left here is in the woods and the snow piles in other areas.

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10 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 41. With clear skies the official overnight low was 17 here at my house I had a high yesterday of 42 and the overnight low was a kind of cold 14. At this time it is clear and 18 here. As is common this time of year there looks to be a few ups and downs in the weather the next week or more. Temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's one day and in the low to mid 30's or even colder are common for the rest of March and big swings  can still happen well into April. The only snow left here is in the woods and the snow piles in other areas.

Curious.  What's our record snowfall for March in GR?  I have a feeling we are going to see some decent snowfall events the next 2 weeks.  At least the possibility of it anyway.  Already talking 3-6 Monday.   

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26 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Curious.  What's our record snowfall for March in GR?  I have a feeling we are going to see some decent snowfall events the next 2 weeks.  At least the possibility of it anyway.  Already talking 3-6 Monday.   

The monthly record for any March at Grand Rapids is 36.0" in 1965. There was 25.9" in 1971, 25.3" in 1932 and 22.6" in 2002. The biggest snow storms are 15.6" on March 2 and 3rd 2002 with 13.6" falling on the 2nd and then 2.0" on the 3rd. On March 14th 1904 10.5" fell with another 1.0" on the 15th and then 6" on the 17th On March 25th 1970 3" before midnight and then 10.2" fell after midnight for a storm total of 13.2".

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