March 2022 Observations and Discussions

[westMJim]

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 33. The official overnight low at GRR was 15 the overnight low here at my house was 14. At this time with clear skies it is 22. We took a road trip up to Bay City yesterday. With full sun it was a very nice day. There is still snow in the woods and in places in the open fields where there was drifting along the side of the roads. Here at my house the snow piles are still here and there is still some snow in the woods.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON says good chance of snow Thursday. Not holding my breath. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The GFS has alternating shots of snowfall and immediate warm ups. That would be perfect. Still with the chances of snow/big storms, but then no brutal cold thereafter as most are ready for spring.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The GFS has alternating shots of snowfall and immediate warm ups. That would be perfect. Still with the chances of snow/big storms, but then no brutal cold thereafter as most are ready for spring.

12z Euro and Canadian look very similar for next Thursday possible storm. Problem, it is still 6 days away and we know how models have changed for the worse around here this winter. 

[snowstorm83]

GFS and EPS means look non-terrible for late next week, not suprisingly all over the place being almost a week out. OP runs aren't as enthusiastic. Either it's going to finally snow or we'll watch it fade away like everything else this winter. 

[hawkstwelve]

Longtime poster on the PNW subforums here. Currently in Buffalo, WY as we make our way to our new home in Sioux Falls, SD (arriving on Monday). Can't wait to experience actual winter weather and especially the thunderstorms in spring/summer. Looks like I won't have to wait too long for the first shot at snow in our new place with the 18z GFS "druncle" showing 24-hour totals of 17.5 inches in SF by Thursday afternoon.

Really excited to learn this whole new climate!

[Madtown]

Got out with the whole family. 33 degrees and 16mi on some great trails. Really depressed its going downhill so fast tomorrow.

[gimmesnow]

14 hours ago, Madtown said:

Got out with the whole family. 33 degrees and 16mi on some great trails. Really depressed its going downhill so fast tomorrow.

I know how you feel, people make fun of me for snowboarding so much at the end of the season and driving all over Wisconsin so I can keep going, but that's the only way to deal with losing winter sports for the season. I always go as much as possible, snowmobiling or snowboarding, just so when I put everything away I have no regrets.

[WinterSquall23]

16 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Longtime poster on the PNW subforums here. Currently in Buffalo, WY as we make our way to our new home in Sioux Falls, SD (arriving on Monday). Can't wait to experience actual winter weather and especially the thunderstorms in spring/summer. Looks like I won't have to wait too long for the first shot at snow in our new place with the 18z GFS "druncle" showing 24-hour totals of 17.5 inches in SF by Thursday afternoon.

Really excited to learn this whole new climate!

Welcome, the climate is a lot different than Seattle area.  You get 4 seasons here in the midwest. Usually. ..  Sometimes all in one week.  No mountains to modify the cold.  We moved from the Bellingham area to Detroit metro area.  I went from an average of 12 inches of snow a year to tripple that.  Invest in a snow blower. Especially up there.  Sometimes it can snow into April here.   Today its supposed to be inn the mid 50s, followed by thunderstorms, then rain/snow to snow.  In less than a day.  Pretty dynamic weather here.  

[hawkstwelve]

48 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Welcome, the climate is a lot different than Seattle area.  You get 4 seasons here in the midwest. Usually. ..  Sometimes all in one week.  No mountains to modify the cold.  We moved from the Bellingham area to Detroit metro area.  I went from an average of 12 inches of snow a year to tripple that.  Invest in a snow blower. Especially up there.  Sometimes it can snow into April here.   Today its supposed to be inn the mid 50s, followed by thunderstorms, then rain/snow to snow.  In less than a day.  Pretty dynamic weather here.  

Thanks! Helpful to learn about the climate from like-minded folks, such as on here, as there are far less resources/people to pull knowledge from when compared to the PNW. We plan on getting a snow blower in time for next winter but good tip!

I always see one of the main complaints of Sioux Falls is the unpredictable, dynamic weather with extremes on either sides. It's usually listed as a con. Luckily for my family and I that is a huge plus! Probably one of the things I'm most excited about.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and GDPS (Canadian) are dropping big snow from Nebraska to northern Iowa late next week.  The UK is farther south, hitting se NE into KS and then east into northern MO and southern IA in weakening mode.  The Euro has become less bullish in recent runs.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Ukie. We can dream. 

[centralweather44]

10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Ukie. We can dream. 

Enough to get us excited. Only to pull the rug out on us tomorrow. 

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Enough to get us excited. Only to pull the rug out on us tomorrow. 

Yep, just like the Peanuts Cartoon. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

53 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Thanks! Helpful to learn about the climate from like-minded folks, such as on here, as there are far less resources/people to pull knowledge from when compared to the PNW. We plan on getting a snow blower in time for next winter but good tip!

I always see one of the main complaints of Sioux Falls is the unpredictable, dynamic weather with extremes on either sides. It's usually listed as a con. Luckily for my family and I that is a huge plus! Probably one of the things I'm most excited about.

I was born in Sioux Falls, lived in South Dakota the first 27 years of my life, and still have family in South Dakota.

Sioux Falls is a great place to live in!

You’ll definitely enjoy the weather

[Hawkeye]

The first robins of the year just showed up in my yard!

[Tom]

Today marks the first day it actually feels and smells like spring…would love to see the clouds clear up a little more to get some of that early March sunshine.  Oh, I took down my Christmas Tree and remaining outdoor decor.  I always like to postpone it as long as possible.  This morning was a great day for it!  

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is still on the north end of the model range late in the week, as well as a bit weaker.  All models have the system, and they are fairly similar considering it's five days out.

[Clinton]

12z EPS and GEFS for late week storm.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The first robins of the year just showed up in my yard!

Been a cardinal singing spring tunes several mornings when I stepped out for work this week. I've heard a robin, just didn't see it. Turkey vultures are back, and lots of migrating hawks have been seen too. Real spring can't be far behind.

[Grizzcoat]

With the amount of severe weather that just rolled through this area- I'd say the cold weather forecast to come to means serious business. March's here lately have been ho-hum. This upcoming cold snap (with an early signal of a fight) means winter aint letting down. Have not seen a model show this in mid-March in years-- (not saying it's right)-- just the classic up /downs of March for once--

[Andie]

Texas is experiencing effects of the drought and an influx of warm very dry air.  
Highs in the upper 70’s this weekend before a cool front rolls in with rain and temps in the mid 50’s Monday. Famine or Feast?  
Looks like we’re into Spring.

 

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away. 

The 17.5 inches shown just yesterday is now a meager 0.5 with the system now progged to stay mostly to the S in NE/IA. Booo! Will be curious to see if Euro follows suit or will keep with the slightly more northerly track. Always have more trust in the Euro.

[jcwxguy]

ukie was south, showing nebraska getting hit good. Not good to be in the bullseye by all the models this far out. I wont get excited until wednesday if models hold.

[snowstorm83]

Perfect track for moisture starved areas in Nebraska. Hate to see it 5 days out lol

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

The active pattern continues...fired up a thread for the late week storm system....

 

[Tom]

ORD hit a high of 69F and it felt every bit of it....from severe wx this weekend, Snow on Mon, then a potential Significant Spring Storm later this week..."The Ides of March" are being shown my mother nature....

[Timmy Supercell]

Had my first thunder in Ashland! That took a while.

[westMJim]

The cold front has gone thu here and the temperatures has dropped down to 39 here. The highest gust at Grand Rapids was 56 MPH. There was a total of 0.14" of rain fall here and there were a few flashes of lightning last night. The high here was 64 yesterday that is the 2nd warmest it has ever been on March 5 here in Grand Rapids. At Muskegon they set a new record high of 68. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 3/5/2022 at 10:39 AM, hawkstwelve said:

Thanks! Helpful to learn about the climate from like-minded folks, such as on here, as there are far less resources/people to pull knowledge from when compared to the PNW. We plan on getting a snow blower in time for next winter but good tip!

I always see one of the main complaints of Sioux Falls is the unpredictable, dynamic weather with extremes on either sides. It's usually listed as a con. Luckily for my family and I that is a huge plus! Probably one of the things I'm most excited about.

Welcome. I enjoyed your thoughts over there. You're in a dynamic place for weather now, for sure! Enjoy it!

[Niko]

Winds are really howling today w/ gusts to as high as 60+mph at times. Now they have subsided some, but its still quite windy. We went from a HWW to a Wind Advisory. Temps are in the balmy 50s. Colder air is on the way and also on the way is snow as well w/ a couple of inches forecasted here imby for tomorrow. Detroit sees 1-2" at the most.

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, Niko said:

Winds are really howling today w/ gusts to as high as 60+mph at times. Now they have subsided some, but its still quite windy. We went from a HWW to a Wind Advisory. Temps are in the balmy 50s. Colder air is on the way and also on the way is snow as well w/ a couple of inches forecasted here imby for tomorrow. Detroit sees 1-2" at the most.

Just rain here on the SW side. You get any of the white stuff?

[jaster220]

On 3/1/2022 at 5:32 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Topped out at 73.6 IMBY so not quite as high as I expected. Still a beautiful day with birds singing everywhere including Robins and Cardinals!

Tomorrow should be a few degrees warmer though.

Saturday I was in SWMI. The afternoon featured 68F, motorcycles, snow piles, and surprisingly (due to the cold ground) no bugs! Was in Grand Haven region where the evidence of many lakeshore hugging events was obvious. Some people on the south side of the street (shady side) still had 10" on the level covering their front yards.

[WinterSquall23]

On 3/5/2022 at 4:10 PM, jaster220 said:

Been a cardinal singing spring tunes several mornings when I stepped out for work this week. I've heard a robin, just didn't see it. Turkey vultures are back, and lots of migrating hawks have been seen too. Real spring can't be far behind.

 

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just rain here on the SW side. You get any of the white stuff?

rain/snow here.  It wants to change over.  Close to 59, but not close enough.  The snow literaly stops at 59. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Ferndale_man said:

 

rain/snow here.  It wants to change over.  Close to 59, but not close enough.  The snow literaly stops at 59. 

Too funny that "M-59 cut-off" to perfection. Saw a few flakes mixing in here now. That's fine. I really don't want any more winter at this point.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Another tornado record broken…

[james1976]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Another tornado record broken…

NWS update 9 confirmed tornadoes in Iowa Saturday and they are still surveying damage. 

[Tom]

0z EPS...is real spring lurking for some on here Week 2??  There is a good LR signal that the ridge will pop for what looks like an extended period.  I do see another threat for Severe Wx down in the S Plain/MW during the 17th-19th period.  It appears winter will be on the quick retreat after this colder weekend, of which, I'm sure many of us are ready to see more than just a day or two of warmer weather.

 

Both Euro/CFSv2 weeklies agree that an extended period to close out MAR will be rather warm....but very dry for the central/southern Plains and active across the northern/eastern Sub.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Y-day I showed a stat on how pathetic March's snows have been at DSM of late-- (the 5.1" yday was the largest amount in nearly 12 years -- March 19-20th, 2010 at 6.7" )

Today is temperature related. Currently 15F at KDSM. That is the coldest March temperature in 94 March days -- ( March 6th, 2019 at 5F)

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Y-day I showed a stat on how pathetic March's snows have been at DSM of late-- (the 5.1" yday was the largest amount in nearly 12 years -- March 19-20th, 2010 at 6.7" )

Today is temperature related. Currently 15F at KDSM. That is the coldest March temperature in 94 March days -- ( March 6th, 2019 at 5F)

Iirc, didn’t March ‘19 start off with brutal arctic air?  It was primarily set up across the Upper MW and into IA and I think NE.  Not so much around here bc of the lack of snow OTG.  You guys farther west had better snow.  It may have been 2018 bc I may be getting the years confused.

[Grizzcoat]

^^ Yep 2019-

[tStacsh]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...is real spring lurking for some on here Week 2??  There is a good LR signal that the ridge will pop for what looks like an extended period.  I do see another threat for Severe Wx down in the S Plain/MW during the 17th-19th period.  It appears winter will be on the quick retreat after this colder weekend, of which, I'm sure many of us are ready to see more than just a day or two of warmer weather.

 

Both Euro/CFSv2 weeklies agree that an extended period to close out MAR will be rather warm....but very dry for the central/southern Plains and active across the northern/eastern Sub.

 

I really want this to be true, but I'm not holding my breath.  An active pattern like this will swing temps either way on every other run.  

[Madtown]

Any storms up this way in the long range? Trails held up and are great...let's keep er rolling!

[Madtown]

Ice and snow on the trees...just gorgeous the past few days.

[westMJim]

Officially there was 2.4" of snow fall at Grand Rapids yesterday. The official high yesterday at GRR was 35 the overnight low here was 28. The official overnight low at GRR was 29. At the current time it is cloudy here and 33 there is still 1" of snow on the ground. 

[westMJim]

Here is a update on the seasonal snow fall at several major locations around Michigan. Grand Rapids 67.1" Lansing 52.1" Muskegon 50.8" Detroit 39.6" Saginaw 34.1" Flint 53.1" Alpena 59.8" the Sault 127.0" Marquette 175.1" All locations seen more snow this winter season than last winter season. Detroit, Flint, Lansing, The Sault and Marquette are above average for the season so far. The other locations are below average for the date so far. Grand Rapids could still reach average for the season (but it is getting late) The biggest deficient is at Muskegon. Marquette, The Sault and Alpena still could see snow for another month or so. Other locations maybe for the next two weeks or so.

[Grizzcoat]

13 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Another tornado record broken…

Just my .02 but the Oct 4th ,2013 Woodbury and Cherokee Counties EF-4 is slightly more impressive. OCT tornadoes in IA are less rare than March and the latitude is about 1.5 degrees further N.  Sun angle and length of day are about equal. Again just my .02.

https://www.weather.gov/dmx/March5th2022Tornadoes

[Mr Marine Layer]

The snow is coming

Omaha - Eppley Airfield (KOMA)

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. South southwest wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. North northwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Wednesday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 32. North wind 8 to 13 mph.

Wednesday Night

Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 15. North wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[Tom]

It's fascinating to me how nature just wants to time things just right on the calendar.  Officially, this constitutes as a minor Strat Warming as temps sky rocket at both 10mb/30mb.  What happens next could lead to late season high lat blocking and the Long Lead climate models are jumping on board with that idea as we head deeper into Met Spring.

 

The Euro/GFS are starting to hone in on another PV Split in the Day 9-10 period...the seasons biggest PV disruption is on the table...the timing could not be more ill-timed...

 

 

Late season -NAO's are trouble if you live near the GL's/MW/Upper MW and esp across the Northeast.  Based on the animations below, I'm predicting a large trough across the eastern Sub to close out March and open April.  Not a pretty picture for fair wx Spring fans.  The opening week of baseball season is delayed this year (prob a good thing), as I'm sure we'll be seeing "April Fools" snows up north.