March 2022 Observations and Discussions

[james1976]

Local met has 50s and even low 60s starting Sunday and all next week. Bring it

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was 22 the official overnight low at GRR was 24. At the current time it is partly cloudy and 30 here at my house. The only snow on the ground now is in shady areas and the old snow piles that have been here for most of the winter. After a cold weekend it looks to warm up next week as we see some nice early spring weather.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I'm still jealous of you guys seeing 50s and 60s. We're getting to 40 here on Sunday and that's gonna feel sooooo nice. 

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Local met has 50s and even low 60s starting Sunday and all next week. Bring it

Same here, the two big rain and ice storms we've had have really destroyed the bases of everywhere I've been to.

This Monday was amazingly bad, the base never froze from the warm weekend, then it snowed on top of the slush, and we only got like an inch or two in SE Wisconsin. It made some of the worst snow I've ever ridden, I don't think I've ever seen it do that. These springs when we go from 20s and decent snow one week to 50s and 60s the next week are my favorite, as much as I hate to let snowboarding go.

[Thunder98]

We had a multi-year weak La Nina in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, then had a weak El Nino in 2018-2019 and in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 we are having a multi-year Moderate La Nina. So many La Ninas in the last 5 1/2 years!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

We had a multi-year weak La Nina in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, then had a weak El Nino in 2018-2019 and in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 we are having a multi-year Moderate La Nina. So many La Ninas in the last 5 1/2 years!

3-peat in the works and this one could be the strongest…

[jaster220]

KDTW has stayed at or below freezing for a high yet in March. The clock is running down on real winter around here. 

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

It's fascinating to me how nature just wants to time things just right on the calendar.  Officially, this constitutes as a minor Strat Warming as temps sky rocket at both 10mb/30mb.  What happens next could lead to late season high lat blocking and the Long Lead climate models are jumping on board with that idea as we head deeper into Met Spring.

 

The Euro/GFS are starting to hone in on another PV Split in the Day 9-10 period...the seasons biggest PV disruption is on the table...the timing could not be more ill-timed...

 

 

Late season -NAO's are trouble if you live near the GL's/MW/Upper MW and esp across the Northeast.  Based on the animations below, I'm predicting a large trough across the eastern Sub to close out March and open April.  Not a pretty picture for fair wx Spring fans.  The opening week of baseball season is delayed this year (prob a good thing), as I'm sure we'll be seeing "April Fools" snows up north.

 

Did you mean to say "major"?

[Phil]

Hello new friends.  

[Tom]

Frankly, I'm not sure what to expect in terms of the Long Term pattern for the remainder of this Spring, but the unexpected late season Sudden Stratospheric Warming event likely to take place and will impact our weather pattern.  It's not a question of "if", but now a question of "when" this will occur.  On the topic of "when", take a wild guess....literally, on the day we welcome the Spring Solstice (3/20), the 0z Euro is showing a categorical PV Split at all layers of the Polar Strat.  What does all of this suggest?  IMHO, I don't see a nice spring-like pattern shaping up for the later parts of this month into APR around the GL's/MW region.  The Plains stand a better chance of seeing nicer wx along with a very volatile wx pattern as storms will continue to plow the PAC NW/Rockies. 

 

 

 

 

Before then, however, next week looks amazing as teleconnections support a very warm pattern...this will be welcomed by many I'm sure.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Hibbing,MN -23F this morning. Smashed the previous record of -18F in 1979.

It's the coldest opening 68 days of the year -- surely will continue through today and tomorrow- so 70 days in the stations history-- ala 1938.

[westMJim]

With clear skies the overnight low here at my house was 21. The official low at GRR was 23. With clear skies it is now 23 here at my house.  For the first 9 days of March the mean at Grand Rapids is 34.6 and that is +2.6 there has been 2.6” of snow fall. The highest temperature so far has been 64 and the lowest so far has been 15. Friday and Saturday look to be rather cold with maybe some snow and then a good warm up for next week.

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

52 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hibbing,MN -23F this morning. Smashed the previous record of -18F in 1979.

It's the coldest opening 68 days of the year -- surely will continue through today and tomorrow- so 70 days in the stations history-- ala 1938.

Yeah... I'm wanting this winter to end for reasons that are different from the posters to the southwest of me.

[Madtown]

-15 this am

[Timmy Supercell]

Snowstorm on the way! How much and where is the big question. On a local news station I'm in the 4-8" zone, but a quick glance at the Euro (if closer to accuracy) suggests northeastern Kentucky gets a 2-4" storm and amounts 5-8" towards Hazard. Southeast KY has generally been getting more snow than this neck of the woods so it wouldn't surprise me if that happens. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

35 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Snowstorm on the way! How much and where is the big question. On a local news station I'm in the 4-8" zone, but a quick glance at the Euro (if closer to accuracy) suggests northeastern Kentucky gets a 2-4" storm and amounts 5-8" towards Hazard. Southeast KY has generally been getting more snow than this neck of the woods so it wouldn't surprise me if that happens. 

There's a storm thread, feel free to join in there. And looking forward to your pics!

[james1976]

50s and 60s in my grids from Sunday thru the 24th.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

GFS is warming up run-to-run. Still doesn't push the ridge far enough north to give me enough warmth to actually feel warm. Highest I get to is 40 early next week. MPX is running away with Euro- 53 on Wednesday!

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I'm moving again btw lol

[snowstorm83]

I just hope some rain chances can pop up at least. I think I’ll have a stroke at age 22 if there’s another winter “threat”. Should be back in the 60s by Sunday 

[Beltrami Island]

Looks like I am going to register 6 or 7 of the first 12 days of March with below 0f lows.  Saturday am looks like the last likely below 0 low for this cold season.  Of course I have had a few years with below 0f days in April as well.   

[tStacsh]

Euro says hello spring in Michigan next week.  Can't wait.  Even a blend with the GFS will be nice.  

[Grizzcoat]

47 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Looks like I am going to register 6 or 7 of the first 12 days of March with below 0f lows.  Saturday am looks like the last likely below 0 low for this cold season.  Of course I have had a few years with below 0f days in April as well.   

whats your snow cover?? Heard from some buddies that LOTW has 3' of ice in many spots (16" extensions  on augers) -- but that's not unheard of. I remember March of 1996 when I had to stand on the end gate of my truck to drill holes on LOTW ( the  auger + motor head stood that tall) .

[Beltrami Island]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

whats your snow cover?? Heard from some buddies that LOTW has 3' of ice in many spots (16" extensions  on augers) -- but that's not unheard of. I remember March of 1996 when I had to stand on the end gate of my truck to drill holes on LOTW ( the  auger + motor head stood that tall) .

Yeah 3' of ice is nothing on LOW this late in the year, the only reason its not close to 5'+ is because of the thick snowcover insulating the ice.  

My snow on the ground is still close to 18" I'd guess and that's with no significant snow for 2 weeks.   

[IMoveALot_Weather]

The snowpack here is really taking a beating from the sun angle. Even with highs in the teens and 20s, there's still pretty decent puddle action every day. Should be reduced to piles a day or two into next week's warmup. 25*F.

A cold spell or two is inevitable in late March going into April, but from a constant perspective, winter appears it'll be over here this weekend.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[IMoveALot_Weather]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Calling it right now, Lincoln pulls some BS April snowfall out of their a** to avoid the record low.

[westMJim]

Here at my house just 0.5" of snow fell overnight. And there is now a half inch of snow on the ground here. The overnight low here at my house was 19 and at this time it is 20. There looks to be a quick cold snap then a rather big warm up next week with highs only near 20 tomorrow but there is a chance of highs around 60 by Thursday.

[Andie]

Weather people here must be bored.  
They’re running around like Chicken Little about a Winter Storm.  
Not going to happen.  A snooze-fest. 
 

[Madtown]

6 degrees and a heavy snow squall this am. Put down 1/2". Hoping we get 2 or 3" tomorrow night for a great ride Sunday!

[Clinton]

On 3/10/2022 at 4:16 AM, Tom said:

Frankly, I'm not sure what to expect in terms of the Long Term pattern for the remainder of this Spring, but the unexpected late season Sudden Stratospheric Warming event likely to take place and will impact our weather pattern.  It's not a question of "if", but now a question of "when" this will occur.  On the topic of "when", take a wild guess....literally, on the day we welcome the Spring Solstice (3/20), the 0z Euro is showing a categorical PV Split at all layers of the Polar Strat.  What does all of this suggest?  IMHO, I don't see a nice spring-like pattern shaping up for the later parts of this month into APR around the GL's/MW region.  The Plains stand a better chance of seeing nicer wx along with a very volatile wx pattern as storms will continue to plow the PAC NW/Rockies. 

 

 

 

 

Before then, however, next week looks amazing as teleconnections support a very warm pattern...this will be welcomed by many I'm sure.

 

The AO and NAO are going negative around the 20th.  Late March may really cold and snowy for the Lakes area and maybe for those further west.

[Phil]

Soaring into the mid-60s here today.

Could be snowing w/ 50mph gusts in 18hrs. Gotta love spring.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The AO and NAO are going negative around the 20th.  Late March may really cold and snowy for the Lakes area and maybe for those further west.

That bowling ball showing up for the Spring Solstice period is going to be a fun system to track.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Currently 13°F, looks like our high will either be this or a degree or two higher. Temps only go up from here... After one last subzero night tonight, that is.

[Andie]

9 hours ago, Andie said:

Weather people here must be bored.  
They’re running around like Chicken Little about a Winter Storm.  
Not going to happen.  A snooze-fest. 
 

They blew a good deal of their forecast. Not a drop or flake.  
Extremely windy today and cold. 
We’ll drop to 26* tonight.

Most likely our last really cold night.  Mid 50’s tomorrow and moving up to mid 70’s by Monday.  

Hang in there. Spring is on the way. You’ll be forecasting severe weather in no time.  

[Niko]

On 3/7/2022 at 12:15 PM, jaster220 said:

Just rain here on the SW side. You get any of the white stuff?

Sorry for the late response amigo. Been so busy lately.

Actually I don't even remember if I did received any snow during the last couple of days .I probably did not... I think. 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

KMSP actually hit the high of 23 at 0215 this morning. That's still 16 degrees below normal.

[Hawkeye]

One more cold day , then spring . 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Well, at least the wind gives me something to comment on. It's pretty breezy out there, wind chill is already down to -13°F.

[Madtown]

-1 atm

[Tom]

Went outside for a bit and the wind certainly has a bite to it...prob the last day of the season it'll feel like mid-winter around here.  Current temp of +11F with a subzero WC.

[Tom]

The Sudden Strat Warming (final of the season) is going to take place alongside some late season blocking suggest that Winter isn't over yet for the northern members this month and likely into April.  Something peculiar is going on in the atmosphere that gives me pause to jump on the idea for real Spring-like wx (excluding the Plains peeps) after what will be a nice reprieve next week from the long and deep cold season this year for you guys.  The 0z EPS is trending colder post 21st/22nd for our Spring Solstice storm system and once that blocking locks into place, look out for more snow to fall...yup, the season that keeps on giving and I would not be surprised to see the GL's and parts of the MW to earn more #statpadding snowfall.  

[westMJim]

The high here yesterday was 31 and the overnight low here at my house so far has been 12 the official overnight low at GRR looks to be 14. At this time it is still 12 here and 14 at GRR. There was 0.1" of snow fall here last night is a quick snow shower. There is still snow from snow that fell overnight on Thursday in the shade but that snow is all gone in the areas that had sun yesterday.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

It was -2°F when I woke up this morning. This will be the last subzero of this season, good riddance.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said:

It was -2°F when I woke up this morning. This will be the last subzero of this season, good riddance.

How much snow do you have OTG?  I haven’t checked any maps so just curious to hear before I do look at the snow maps.

[Clinton]

The low here hit 6 this morning on my way to 32 this afternoon.  Warm up gets going tomorrow as temps should make it near 60.

[Timmy Supercell]

Someone's local report shows 5.7" inches. 

That's the best storm all winter in Ashland. 

[Madtown]

-11 this am. Up to -4atm. Little snow on the way!

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Madtown said:

-11 this am. Up to -4atm. Little snow on the way!

Has this been one of the best winters you’ve experienced outside of ‘07-‘08 in Madison?

[james1976]

Man last night was cold and windy. I'm over that. Today will be better but still chilly. Then boom...spring. Just in time as we turn the clocks ahead.